Equinties - July meeting day 1

Gm Equinauts

The closest race of the day yesterday wasn't on a race track, it was in my mind between between James Ferguson and Michael Prosser as to who was trying to f me the most.

In this fantasy match race, Michael Prosser comes second. Despite all Prosser’s efforts to turn the July course into a muddy Glastonbury, unbelievably the going remains good to firm, which is absolutely fine for my ante-post bet. No excuses now. JUST PLEASE DONT RAIN BEFORE THE RACE.

James Ferguson on the other hand, well, he’s won this race hands down.

Ferguson is about to ruin the mark of one of the best handicapped horses in the country. Instead of being chucked-in in a big handicap, James has now chucked him in the deep end.

Look, we don't own LAND LEGEND, so we’re only looking at this from a very selfish POV (we wanted to gamble the backside off him in a big handicap) and we understand the trainer and owners bullish ambition,

BUT COME ON.

After the catastrophe at Royal Ascot, surely it’s one step at a time with him? Let him get his big W and then face the big boys. That’s not to say he can't do it today (he’s very well bred and very well thought of) but let's be honest, he's quite up against it today.

Anyway, its game day. Let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 400 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

Gambling? What gambling?

In a story that broke yesterday dominating the news today, Irish racing could have Media rights relating to the UK taken away if a new gambling regulation bill is brought into action.

Summarised, a new bill passed through the committee stage yesterday which says that all advertisement of gambling activity, including horse racing, would be unable to view on TV between 5:30 AM and 9:00 PM.

It cannot be overstated how detrimental this could be to the sport. Both RMG, the parent company of Racing TV, and Sky Sports Racing have said how it would be economically unviable to show Irish racing if this passed.

Talk about being in denial, this sport is literally funded by gambling. Bookmakers run the sport. To say that gambling cannot be associated with racing in Ireland is like saying Huw Edwards isn't associated with young boys.

JOOOOOKE. I’m joking, I'm joking. (I’m not).

This story isn't over yet and we imagine further developments will come over the next few days, but the whole story is pretty laughable.

It’s ON!

That’s right, the whispers proved true. LITTLE BIG BEAR is set to face off against SHAQUILLE once more in what will be the rematch of the season.

The whispers were rife early this morning, and those with quick fingers would have taken the 7/1 available ante-post, but the books were very quick to suspend the markets ahead of the declarations to day for the big Group 1 July Cup on Saturday.

Who is your money on SHAQUILLE or LITTLE BIG BEAR?

BIG RACE PREVIEW

13.50 GROUP 3 BAHRAIN TROPHY STAKES

A 6 strong field of good stayers go to post in the opening race of the July meeting, the Group 3 Bahrian Trophy Stakes, the race subject to our earlier rant.

The market leader is TOWER OF LONDON for Aiden O'brien who has been absolutely smashed up, almost as if losing is out of the question.

He won the Ulster Derby last time out of a mark of 99, a shade cosily, and the earlier 5/2 about him has long gone, being now 11/8 warm fave. Given he’s 5/2 favourite for the Ledger, obviously he has to be feared today, so let’s look at who he is up against…because right now, you’d think it was a load of donkeys.

The form danger to his chances is SAINT GEORGE for the Balding team. He was second to GREGORY lot in the Queen's vase, a horse who looks good for the Gosdens, though the form isn't yet established, and he faded late on at Royal Ascot which is a concern.

Appleby’s CASTLE WAY is drifting but can't be dismissed on ratings. The yard form is still questionable.

KLONDIKE saw a bit of early support. William Haggas’ three year old GALILEO colt was also second to GREGORY last time out at Goodwood, and although he was well held then, only the people close to him will know how much he has improved.

The big question for the Balding and Shaggas horse’s will be how good is that Gregory form line?

LAND LEGEND is a horse we love but is perhaps, just perhaps in the wrong race today. That said, if he's as good as he shows at home, then he’s a big price.

Verdict: TOWER OF LONDON is too short in our view. At 14’s and selling off quickly, we’ll hang our hats on LAND LEGEND for a top 3 place paying about 6/4 or 13/8 on the machine.

14.25 GROUP 2 JULY STAKES

Historically, this is a sire making race but today could be a money making race for us as featured is our 7/1 ante-post bet PUROSANGUE.

Finally, drifting off top, PUROSANGUE is a horse we were close to before he was even broken in. We tried to buy him before he had his date with the sales ring. Alas, he went to market after a nice breeze and then put in a powerful performance on debut to win by 4 lengths. The form looks weak at but he won well and has come on for that.

Who is our danger? MALC. By CALYX, he ran a monster race to be second in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot notably beating ELITE STATUS. The step up in trip will suit, he’s experienced and he looks a big threat.

CHIEF MANKATO is getting squeezed. The times, ratings and form of his debut looks solid. He went to post at Royal Ascot but after getting upset he was withdrawn, that wouldn’t worry us unless he does it again today. Got a bit to find but looks handy enough.

MOUNTAIN BEAR by NO NAY NEVER looks quite far down the pecking order at Ballydoyle but still looks a threat, he’s improving and comes from a great distaff line.

LAKE FOREST is another by NO NAY NEVER. This lads dam was Gr3 placed at 2. Rarely a Haggas runner wins like he did fto and the third has won since. Looks a threat but lack of experience a worry and there aren't many whispers for him

THUNDER BLUE is by BLUE POINT who can sire a good one. His dam was a handy 2yo herself being Group placed. He won well at Goodwood on his second start beating a handy one of Varians and then ran creditably at Ascot to be 5th (behind MALC) in the Gr2. Another who has good form but does need to improve a bit again.

MAXIMUM IMPACT really disappointed at Royal Ascot after winning impressively on his first two starts. Needs to bounce back but clearly that is entirely possible.

Verdict: PUROSANGUE was the 7/1 ew ante-post for BGP Capital. Perhaps a wrong move by us, the market was so illiquid, we moved him into 11/8 at one point. He’d be 7’s now with the ability to get size down if we hadn't done that, lesson learned. That’s our bad but was explained in the subscribers newsletter. We’re sticking with him obviously and so should you, but if you're not on, wait for a drift, he should be 4-5/1 in our view.

If we didn't know what we know about Baldings, who’d the bet be?

MALC has the form in the book and comes from a good family. The step up in trip will suit and he should be able to settle in behind MOUNTAIN BEAR and PUROSANGUE and strike at the 2 furlong pole. He’s the dirt ew hedge here at 4’s.

15.35 GROUP 2 PRINCESS OF WALES’S STAKES

This is a penalty kick for ADAYAR…Without a goalie.

The Derby and King George winner ADAYAR will compete in better races this year, he was third in the Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot for instance. He is rated 121 and his nearest rival Israr is rated 111.

It might be a ‘racecourse gallop’ for the Godolphin homebred but it’s still great to watch him run.

ISRAR has found QUICKTHORN and HASKOY too good this year. His 3 wins have come in lesser company, two Class 2 handicaps and a maiden.

GLOBAL STORM won a Gr2 in Meydan this year and comes here on his own merit. He was third in this race last year behind YIBIRand looking at the betting will fill the same spot today.

Verdict: ADAYAR wins.

16.45 CLASS 1 LISTED SIR HENRY CECIL STAKES

Appleby’s unbeaten IMPERIAL EMPEROR is easy to back at the top of the market, 6/4 out to 2/1 and drifting. This lad is a full to FIRST RULER who was a top handicapper but to win this race you normally have to be Group class, so on a blood basis, we’re taking him on (you’d have done well taking on the boys in blue this year anyway).

NOSTRUM is getting squeezed and he’s the one we like. That Dewhurst form lto is the strongest on offer and despite the lay off, the one they have to beat.

Varian’s EMBESTO is on the up and still unbeaten but will have to improve, as will the others…drastically too.

Verdict: NOSTRUM to win on his come back run at 11/4.

STATS OF THE DAY

A nice 9/2 winner for the stats yesterday, lets see if we can find another today.

ROBUSTO was a trip hike plot for SMP and goes again in the 14.15. Travelling a long way, SMP is close to a 1 in 3 strike rate when clocking this sort of mileage.

We’re hoping Balding has a good day (obviously) and he targets the 15.00 having won it twice from 4 attempts. More, he’s won it with fillies for owner Jeff Smith who is repped by two today in FRANKNESS and DESERT COP, former on paper looks most likely.

RISK ON

Do what you will with the above preview horses, we’ll chuck them in the Fantasy stable.

14.25 PUROSANGUE

On at 7’s, many of you will have got 6’s. We know this lad is good. Ground perfect at time of writing, no excuses. He’s a strong ew bet.

Note: Not got ew? Wait, he might drift. Advising the MALC stake hedge too as the main danger.

TREBLE/TRIXIE

15.10 FREE NATION

Gambled lot, can make amends today.

16.55 COUPLET

Been in tracker a long time. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE owners bought obviously wanting another rocket filly. Long lay off but could be anything.

17.55 ALHAMBRA PALACE

Given a stinker lot, is well handicapped and fancied.

Pays 13’s. Half bet on treble and Trixie.