Equinties - July heating up

Gm Equinauts

All punters will have a strict criteria, a box ticking exercise, as to what constitutes a bet for them.

For us we like to pick a race where the majority of horses in the field can’t win and that would be based mainly but not limited to pedigree, going and yard form (the list could go on but that’s our secret sauce).

Who trains the horse is a huge part of our of home grown theory too.

We shan’t name them because it would be quite embarrassing for them that we think they can’t do their actual day job but we’ll be honest, there are a few trainers we wouldn’t trust to turn our bins out, let alone ready a horse for a race.

There are some trainers we love to back. Shaggas is top of the list. (Apparently he’s a pedigree nerd like us and will l pore over the hundreds of notebooks he has detailing his every runner, it’s pedigree, action, what ground it ran on and how it performed. I’d love to read them).

But there are two new, young trainers who have really caught our eye this year for their consistency in horses running well and their ability to get horses to win hen they need to; Ed Bethell and Ollie Sangster, the latter we backed yesterday.

Both lads are very much trainers on the up and as they continue to succeed, they’ll receive better horses. We look forward to following them through out their career and backing their winners.

Oh and we’re already set to send one to Bethell’s yard for next season.

Let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 250 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

July heats up

The famous sire making July Cup is just four days away and there have been three recent pieces of news that you should know about.

Firstly, having won the Jubilee Stakes at 80/1 at Royal Ascot, Charlie Hills and connections have decided to supplement KHAADEM for the highlight Group 1 event on Saturday – it has cost connections £20,000 to do so, and although they are on weather watch to make sure there is quick ground, it seems the yard don’t think last month was a fluke.

Another on weather watch but hoping for a different outcome is the AZURE BLUE team as their four-year-old is looking to build on her victory in May over HIGHFIELD PRINCESS.

Trainer Michael Dodds is hopeful to get a run this weekend, though he wouldn’t want it too quick, as he said: "We've been looking at the weather forecast and we don't want it too firm - Newmarket can get like a road, but as long as it's not rattling we'll be fine. We wouldn't want it good to firm, firm in places."

She is now as short as 3/1 for the £600,000 contest as news came out that LITTLE BIG BEAR is 50/50 to make the six-furlong event. LBB has apparently missed six days of cantering due to a bruised foot and Aidan O’Brien is worried he has lost too much fitness.

SHAQUILLE is still the favourite after five-day confirmations and 14 are still entered in total for the race.

Half century for Bowen

Nope, not the Ashes, we’re still talking about racing here… Sean Bowen hit the 50 winners mark as he rode a memorable double at Worcester yesterday.

Bowen achieved this feat 44 days earlier than he did last year and now he sits 23 victories ahead of the current champion jockey, Brian Hughes.

Because of this, multiple firms have made the Stayers’ Hurdle-winning pilot a 5/4 shot for the 2023/24 title with Hughes sat 2/1 alongside Harry Cobden.

Positive trends

Some bullish news about racecourse attendances for once as May was up 13% compared to the same month last year, adding to the 5% increase from February.

In May, the York Dante Festival, with its good weather and welcoming track, saw a rise of paying punters where as the Chester May Meeting dropped 2%.

And although we saw a 14% drop and 10% drop in March and April respectively, this result in favour of increasing attendances is a step in the right direction, so let’s hope the greedy race tracks invest the money back into it’s prize money and grow it even more.

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/may-attendances-rise-almost-13-per-cent-on-2022-as-racing-fights-back-against-tough-economy-anLhy1N7W80q/ 

STATS OF THE DAY

Newland is 3 from 3 in the 18.10 and sends SHENGAI ENKI to do the four-timer.

19.00 CHIPS AND RICE (terrible name) goes for Fanshawe who is 2 from 4 (50%) in these types of races at track.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

15.20 LISTED PIPALONG STAKES

PURPLEPAY IS the daughter of ZARAK who cost 2million guineas at the end of her 2yo career is 12lbs better than her nearest rival on official ratings. However she needs to bounce back from a luckless time in Australia.

FALL IN LOVE IS the daughter of SEA THE STARS, makes her seasonal debut for the Varian camp. She’s always been found lacking in Group company so connections are hoping Roger has found the key to her.

AL AGAILA hails from a lovely Group class family, she was progressing well before plateauing out on a mark of 92. She needs a strong end to end gallop with a bit of give in the ground. She needs to improve but might not be too far away at an ew price.

ZENGA also runs for the Varian yard, she was unlucky lto at Royal Ascot coming off the back of a 263 day break and a wind op. She was actually under a length off coming 4th in that race so as she was stopped in running it was a great effort. On pedigree, she wouldnt want the ground any worse than good to soft.

DHA LEATH - by MEHMAS who is predominantly known for his sprinting stock is the sire of this filly who has been seen to best effect over 1m2f. And on heavy going would you believe. That stamina comes from her distaff line. She needs a big improvement to trouble the judge today back down to a mile.

LOVE INTEREST ran a good race to be 4th in a Listed race last October but that’s her best recent form for a long time. Connections will be hoping to snag 3rd to get some black type but she’s up against it today.

Verdict: PURPLEPAY looks the one to beat but very skinny in the market. ZENGA offers good value and if she can improve from her seasonal debut which you would expect she’ll be bang there. EW would be advised if playing as she has a bit to find with the fave.

RISK ON

Quite like the stats horses today but there’s a single with conviction it’s a speccy one:

16.30 SPRITZIN’

Play on the chance this is another SMP trip hike plot. She was a very, very expensive sales purchase and you’d hope a 0-75 would be within her reach for that price. Half bet at 5/2 to find out.

Protect your bank at all costs this week, there are some great bets coming up.