Equinties - Juddmonte army

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Aidan O'Brien won the Cheshire Oaks, Frankie won in Juddmonte silks and Charles Byrnes has been fined for cheating again - the world in perfect working order then.

Day 2 of the Chester May Festival and one easy way to have an interest in the races without doing your b*llocks is to play the TOTE Fantasy.

Add your stable to our League using code QHZ36G.

Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

Epsom gets big boost 

The murky picture of the next two Classics became slightly clearer after day one of the Chester May Festival yesterday as two potential superstar three-year-olds lit up the Roodee. 

The first of which came from the Coolmore operation as ONELASTDANCE bolted up by 22 lengths under Ryan Moore in the Cheshire Oaks. 

But what has she beaten? Balding's stopped very quickly, David Evans' aren't fit, Meade's out of form and the Johnston horse just isn't much cop. 

That said, no-one can deny that this camera angle of her strides around the corner is simply beautiful to watch. 

While Racing Twitter was in a frenzy, the books quickly cut her into 13/8 Oaks fave.

35 minutes later, the Derby also got a shake-up as ARREST bucked the drift on the exchanges by hosing up in the Vase and laugh at Gosden's pre-race comments. 

As if to not want to get called out for putting punting viewers away, John Gosden quickly expressed his surprise at how fit ARREST was.

Like the performance before, this was a good one, however, unlike ONELASTDANCE, he always looked like winning and it was relatively easy from a handy position.  

He is now best-priced at 8/1 for the Epsom Classic, having been a lot bigger (and highlighted in yesterdays newsletter) though his appearance in the event isn’t 100% as Gosden is unsure how good he will be on quick ground.

Whether his big action will suit quick or not, Juddmonte have some serious ammunition to go to war with this season. ARREST could win the Derby and St Leger, BLUESTOCKING is contender for the Oaks making available the Classics clean sweep and don't forget they've also got NOSTRUM who undoubtedly has more to offer too.

Big race preview 

14.40 Listed Dee Stakes 

This is never the most exciting Derby Trial, CLIFFS OF MOHER won this in 2017 before coming second in the Derby. Ballydoyle have got a strangle hold on this race. SAN ANTONIO won the same maiden CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD did before winning at Chester. He had a horrible draw at Dundalk but it looked impressive. He’ll handle soft ground and is bred for bigger things as he’s by DUBAWI and his dam was second in the Irish Oaks.

ALDER descends from a NIARCHOS family that includes PIZ BADILE. Owned by Donnacha’s parents, this son of AUSTRALIA bumped into AUGUSTE RODIN two starts back and then won at Cork on Good to Soft.

LOCAL DYNASTY carries a penalty for his Listed win at Pontefract last year. He has been off for 206 days and this looks a great starting point. Will need to improve from last years form. 

PASSENGER is a likely non-runner as he wouldn’t want it soft. His family is all American but his third dam won the 1000 Guineas. Stoute will walk the track before deciding to run. Will need to improve anyhow. 

Verdict: ALDER is definitely the best horse...at the moment but it would be no surprise to see SAN ANTONIO improve as his family dam side have done historically and is annoyingly the fly in the ointment preventing a bet on ALDER. Very well could be a father and son forecast here.

15.15 Group 3 Ormonde Stakes 

With ISRAR a nr, seven head into the stalls for the Ormonde Stakes and including last years victor HAMISH.

Ridden regularly by Shaggas' wife Maureen, HAMISH has the draw to overcome and connections have made it quite clear this will be a stepping stone for further targets. That said, there are plenty of things going for the seven-year-old MOTIVATOR gelding here: his record when fresh is brilliant (second to KYPRIOS off a 129-day break), he obviously loves the track, and will appreciate the softer conditions. He is easy to make a case for despite the bearish signals.

He's up against a stronger field this year and the horse battling him for favourtism is CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD for Aidan O’Brien, a Royal Ascot winner when he was last seen. 

He won the Chester Vase well last year on soft ground and he won fto last season, though he has recovered from a hairline fracture since he ventured onto the track in June 2022. He is a big player to take on HAMISH.

Seeking a hattrick, OLD HARROVIAN represents Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy after his demolition lto at Wolves. 

He has raced only once on the turf when seventh to NEW LONDON at Newmarket last April on good ground – it’s tough to assess his soft ground credentials being a SEA THE STARS and all-weather form doesn’t always translate too well. 

One of the rank outsiders in the field is LONE EAGLE for Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan having blown the cobwebs off lto at Newbury. 

He was fifth to ALPINISTA three starts ago and that HURRICANE LANE form from the 2021 Irish Derby is beginning to look good – if at his best, he has to be a player on soft ground at 20/1. 

Verdict: The bearish comments from the yard are enough to put you off a play on HAMISH but he'd be the selection for the TOTE Fantasy.

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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

16.20 Chester

A maiden for 2yo’s and the market leader is HACKMAN who made an encouraging debut at Newmarket. The form of those maidens is normally pretty strong and I’m sure connections have had their eye on this race for some time. Shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the ground but stall 8 is the big worry, so he’ll have work to do early on which might not help the fuel tank at the end of the race. 

BIG TIME RASCAL is owned by Charlie Rosier and trained by Boughey. He is a 100k BLUE POINT who, as we know, has made a very good start to stud. Out of an INVINCIBLE SPIRIT mare who was second in a Listed race in France, he comes from a good French female family, good draw and jockey and trainer combo is eye-catching. 

THE CAMDEN COLT is by FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND out of a full sister to dual Gr3 scorer VENUS DE MEDICI (1m4f). His 3rd dam was a champion and she produced INCHINOR. His trainer is normally pretty happy to go to Windsor or Newbury with his 2yo’s so it's eye catching he sends this lad here on debut. Stall 1 will be a bonus unless he shows inexperience to breaks poorly leaving him boxed in on the rail. 

INNVINCIBLE FRIEND is by INNS OF COURT who was represented by ZIGGYS DREAM who was 2nd yesterday in the Lily Agnes. He comes from a good family who do better over longer trips than 5f. He made a good debut coming 2nd against a more experienced rival (3rd didn’t do the form any favours last night). He’ll need to step forward but that is entirely plausible. 

HAVANARAMA came from the same sale as THE CAMDEN COLT, by all conquering HAVANA GREY, his dam won at 2 in Italy. A January foal so should be strong, his second dam is Gr2 scorer SPOTLIGHT who has produced a Gr3 winner and the dam of St Leger second BERKSHIRE ROCCO. The family of ZOFFANY. Being drawn in the car park isn’t ideal, he’ll need luck on debut. 

Verdict: HACKMAN has got the best form on offer, but they're all unexposed. He hasn’t got a great draw but has 3 unraced horses inside him so one/two of those may not break sharply. His experience will be key today so could be a scare to the field and will be running on late. Will he run out of track? This is a race which is probably best watched as BIG TIME RASCAL is supposed to be very nice however the ground might just blunt the speed we know he has. On better ground, BIG TIME RASCAL would most definitely be the play as he goes for his Book 1 bonus but is probably one for next time out.

Risk on

Nothing today but keep watching, we're waiting on one...

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

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