Equinties - Japanese invasion

Gm Equinauts

This weather is crazy. Torrential rain of biblical proportion one day, to glorious sunshine the next.

It makes punting very tough when ground is such a key factor and can often be the reason this newsletter is sometimes late to press - we want to make sure all the boxes are ticked!

Anyway, big bet coming up this week and the ground will be fine. Make sure you’re subscribed to the Weekender as we might post it early price dependant. Click the link at the bottom.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

HANDICAPPING WITH ENOS?

Yesterday, we got a rather interesting update about the unbeaten DYSART ENOS. However, let’s reminisce on her 2023/24 jumps campaign briefly.

Fergal O’Brien, rightly or wrongly, made the decision early-on to campaign his star mare for one race: the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

His plan was to avoid any Listed or Graded race in order to get to Prestbury Park in March without a penalty.

Well, for much of her preparation, this worked out. Until the inevitable happened…

Unfortunately for Fergal, the team, and her fans, that’s horses. You can plan, plot, and work your way towards one race only for the horse to take a bad step on the morning of the race.

So, why is this relevant to her ahead of the upcoming jumps season?

Well, because she has had just the three runs over hurdles in non-Graded races, she has a rather tempting handicap mark that O’Brien might want to exploit going forward.

Yes, he has said that “Wetherby [for the Listed Bet365 Mares’ Hurdle] will be her starting point”, but why?

With a mark of 131, she could do some serious damage in something like the Greatwood Hurdle which is worth nearly four times more in prize money and is more prestigious.

She has also won at Cheltenham before and it is a local track for the trainer.

Hopefully, O’Brien has a little rethink and can look at the Greatwood Hurdle as her number one target.

EMPERORS INVASION

Would you believe it, the Irish Champion Stakes is set to have Japanese representation this year.

That’s because SHIN EMPEROR, trained by Yoshito Yahagi, is heading to the Group 1 contest at Leopardstown in September before a tilt at the Arc in October.

Yahagi believes his Arc hope “is suited to European tracks” when comparing him to his fellow Japanese counterparts.

Based on his pedigree, the Japan Cup-winning trainer is probably right.

Just take a look at some of the Japanese-trained horses that have turned up to the Arc in previous seasons. THROUGH SEVEN SEAS (fourth in 2023) is by the Japanese sire DREAM JOURNEY, TITLEHOLDER (11th in 2022) is by the Japanese sire DURAMENTE, and while CHRONO GENESIS (seventh in 2021) is by BAGO, he is out of the Japanese dam CHRONOLOGIST.

SHIN EMPEROR is different as he is by SIYOUNI out of the GALILEO mare STARLET’S SISTER, making him a full brother to the 2020 Arc winner SOTTSASS and a half-brother to the seven-time Group/Grade 1 winner SISTERCHARLIE.

It’s well-documented that the Japanese have wanted to win the Arc for a long time now.

With SHIN EMPEROR, a horse who finished third in the Grade 1 Tokyo Derby in May, they have a chance to do so. However, he will need to pass the Leopardstown test first.

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/ireland/hes-different-as-hes-suited-to-european-tracks-big-japanese-hope-set-for-runs-in-irish-champion-and-arc-aFOcE4k6l3PI/

HISTORY IMPROVING ITSELF?

Speaking of Japanese-trained horses, DUREZZA – a winner of last year’s Japanese St Leger – is set to clash with CITY OF TROY in the Juddmonte International.

This isn’t the first time the Japanese have come over and tried to take York’s season-defining contest. In 2005, ZENNO ROB BOY came a head away from beating ELECTROCUTIONIST with the favourite, ACE for Coolmore, back in fourth.

So why is a Japanese-trained horse who is currently 50/1 such a big thing?

Well, ultimately, his presence in the race gives us a bit of clarity.

A lot of people were quick to throw negative opinions the way of CITY OF TROY after his Eclipse win. However, on pure facts, he is the first horse since GOLDEN HORN to do the Derby-Eclipse double and he should be unbeaten if not for his Guineas disappointment.

So, if he can turn up to York on hopefully better ground and smash this Japanese Classic winner, then maybe we will start to appreciate him a bit more.

Furthermore, AUGUSTE RODIN is not going to the race, ECONOMICS is a doubt, and who knows what is happening with PASSENGER.

So, above all else, it gives some more depth to the race as well.

Best of luck to Tomohito Ozeki and connections. Fair play for thinking of giving him a crack.

RISK ON

A strong bet landed for the newsletter yesterday followed by disappointed in the two other horses. That’s racing.

Today looks tough and doesn’t look to be any good bets bar the fave in the 19.20 which is short enough.

We have one lined up this week which will be a good price. Make sure you’re signed up to the Weekender to get it early.

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