Equinties - Jan can

Gm Equinauts

One of our regular readers won big with this beautiful bet yesterday from our Goodwood previews.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

FLOORED THEM ALL!

The big race of the Listowel Harvest Festival played out yesterday, and by played out, we mean it was a complete one-horse race..

FLOORING PORTER, the two-time Stayers’ Hurdle winner, led from pillar to post off a mark of 149 to win in facile fashion.

Many, and we mean many, people were calling this a farce post-race as the majority of the field (bar THE REAL WHACKER who was the closest chaser before unseating at the 10th) gave this classy horse WAY too much free rope.

And while this is partially the case, especially around a track like Listowel which is a tight circuit, we see it a slightly different way.

The ground was fairly deplorable after constant rain all day, so they were naturally going to go a slow pace anyway. But, because of the ground, it’s hard to say that horses should have stuck to FLOORING PORTER’s hindquarters because there’s an argument to suggest only a handful would have finished in the conditions.

Instead, they decided to sit at a slightly slower pace and wait for the leader to come back. He didn’t, but that’s where his class kicked in to dominate.

Furthermore, for a horse who literally chased TEAHUPOO home in the Stayers’ Hurdle in March and beat BROADWAY BOY easily at Cheltenham in October, a mark of 149 was probably just very lenient (hindsight is a wonderful thing).

He was great, the jumps are back. MOVE ON.

AUSTRALIAN BRUTE

We speculated last week about which Aidan O’Brien horses would be heading to the Melbourne Cup because, in reality, he doesn’t need to run any horses in the race.

With the number of checks horses have to go through, he can just run horses over here and then sell them if needed. Take WATERVILLE when he won the Irish Cesarewitch in 2022 – he was sold on to run in Australia under the name of MR WATERVILLE for 2023.

But, this year, he is sending one to the world’s most famous Flat handicap as the unbeaten St Leger winner JAN BRUEGHEL will head to Flemington Racecourse.

The GALILEO three-year-old is set to be Ballydoyle’s first runner in the race since 2020 (ANTHONY VAN DYCK and TIGER MOTH), and he has the chance to be O’Brien’s first winner having finished second with JOHANNES VERMEER in 2017 and TIGER MOTH in the already mentioned 2020.

What weight will he carry? Well, 54kg (8-7) will be on his back and he is a guaranteed runner with that weight. VAUBAN has 55.5kg (8-10) and ABSURDE has 52.5kg (8-4), in comparison.

When asked whether he thought Jan Brueghel was a good fit for the Melbourne Cup, O'Brien said: "We think the race will suit him. He is carrying 8st 7lb at the moment so the plan is for him to go. I suppose we still don't know how good he is and he's improving all the time. He's progressed with every run and hopefully, he will keep on progressing. He's a lovely colt."

He’s 16/1 now – is he your idea of the winner?

15.20 GROUP 3 TATTERSALLS STAKES

There’s some smart racing at HQ today, but the feature is the Tattersalls Stakes for two-year-old colts and geldings over seven furlongs. Some nice horses have won this in the past, notably MODERN GAMES, NOSTRUM, WICHITA, and ALYANAABI.

MONUMENTAL heads the market for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore and he has some decent form to bring to the table.

It was hard not to be impressed by the way he saw out his race two starts ago, though it’s hard to know what the form is. His second to BAY CITY ROLLER lto was solid and the stablemate he was second to last month, IDES OF MARCH, has won a Group 3 since.

SYMBOL OF HONOUR is next best in the market and he brings Royal Ascot form to the table.

He finished sixth in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. RASHABAR chased home WHISTLEJACKET (1st) in the Prix Morny, ELECTROLYTE (2nd) has won a Group 3 since, COOL HOOF LUKE (4th) won the Group 2 Gimcrack, AL QUDRA (5th) won the Listed Pat Eddery and then finished second in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes, and ANGELO BUONARROTI (9th) bolted up in a nice York maiden.

If the rain comes down on the good ground, he should handle it as his half-brother (the Group 1 placed DRAGON SYMBOL) did some great work on heavy ground.

THE WACO KID has been on the go plenty since his debut at the start of July as he’s had five runs already, but plenty of them have been fine. His best effort so far came lto at Doncaster, but he needs to step up to get to the others.

The money horse of the race is DIEGO VENTURA and he is unbeaten from his two starts on track, the latest was when defying a penalty to give 10lbs away to the second and win by a head.

He may have only won by a head, but he came from the rear and moved right across the track. It was better than the bare result, but he doesn’t have as strong a page as some others.

HUSCAL also defied a penalty to win his second career start at Thirsk lto, but he is by the Japanese sire SAXON WARRIOR and will not appreciate any rain that falls at the track.

ASSERTIVELY has a rating of 94 from six runs on the track, so he is probably one of the more exposed types in the field.

He has won on soft ground before though, and while it is still officially good, it won’t be quick and could have a bit of dig.

That might give him an edge over a few in here, and his form isn’t all that bad.

BALZARINI completes the field, but he would need a huge effort to win.

Verdict: Only six runners in this so you really need to hit the bulls eye. MONUMENTAL holds the form to beat (we prefer the Champagne Stakes form) and with the recent rain in his favour, he’s the worthy fave at 13/8 and we shan’t take him on.

RISK ON

No bets from us today - the racing is too competitive on ground where anything can pop up.

We’ll wait for more rain.

SUBSCRIBE TO THE WEEKENDER EDITION USING THE LINK BELOW.

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!