Equinties - Irish National

Gm Equinauts

Easter Bank holiday Mondays - there’s not other feeling like it. Whether you’ll enjoy a long dog walk in the spring sun or pack the car and head off to the local Point to Point, either way we’re sure many pints will consumed today.

Enjoy it, you deserve it.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

DUBAI HIGHLIGHTS

AUGUSTE RODIN was a flop. He never fired and didn’t really look like he wanted to be there. He’s now starting to become a bit of an enigma. Presumably he just never feels that motivated on debut, so now where next? Maybe the Curragh, or drop in trip for the Eclipse?

William Buick take a bow. Big pressure when your boss is the host and expecting wins at the highest level. REBELS ROMANCE a Breeders Cup winner and 3x Group 1 winner but the Sheema Classic was supposed to be a tough one at 25’s. Shows the depth of competition. Two Japanese runners filled the placings, the ultra talented LIBERTY ISLAND and the 2022 winner SHAHRYAR.

Juddmontes LAUREL RIVER was a beast when he smashed his rivals in the Dubai World Cup. By INTO MISCHIEF who we have done a thread on before, he once stood at $7,500 and now stands for $250,000. A homebred colt, is the best World Cup winner since Juddmonte’s other winner of the race ARROGATE. 

Titans Coolmore, Godolphin and Juddmonte got on the score board but so did an incredible little syndicate in Team Valor with FACTEUR CHEVAL. The first horse since SOLOW to win the Dubai Turf, also ridden by Maxime Guyon, FACTEUR CHEVAL found PADDINGTON and BOG ROCK too good last year. The Queen Anne and Sussex Stakes look like the mid season targets.

The Japanese FOREVER YOUNG is now en route for the Kentucky Derby after winning the UAE Derby. Whether he is competitive in the Run for the Roses will remain to be seen but he’ll be a horse we see a lot of on dirt. The trainer already mentioning he wants a crack at the Dubai World Cup next year with him. STAR OF MYSTERY was a 3yo filly taking on the big boy sprinters from around the globe in the Al Quoz. Keep her on side when the Nunthorpe comes round towards the end of August.

HONEYSUCKLES LEGACY

The brilliant HONEYSUCKLE has touched all of our hearts at some point during her brilliant racing career. Whether it was her two Champion Hurdle successes or her brilliant Mares’ Hurdle victory on her final start, she was wonderful on the track. Now she is shining off the track as Saturday she produced her first foal, a beautiful little filly by WALK IN THE PARK.

We imagine proud horse dad Kenny Alexander couldn’t have his weekend topped.

Enter JADE DE GRUGY.

Kenny’s promising new mare JADE DE GRUDY left her Cheltenham defeat well behind her by winning Fairyhouse’s Grade 1 mares’ race named after the famous Honeysuckle. Paul Townend’s ice cold ride needs to be celebrated:

Due to her silks and the fact LOSSIEMOUTH is looking like a Champion Hurdle horse, she looks likely to head down the Mares’ Hurdle route this season. She’s acted around Cheltenham before and we now know she stays, so this would be a fair assumption. Furthermore, we were right to question if Cheltenham would affect her performance this weekend, as even Willie Mullins was complementary of her post-race due to the time between Fairyhouse and Cheltenham. 

It was a big performance from her, and also a big performance from her stablemate SPINDLEBERRY who deserved everything she got.

GREEN AND GOLD ARMY

Well, JP McManus certainly has a team of novice chasers to remember this season. FACT TO FILE. CORBETTS CROSS. INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN and now, SPILLANE’S TOWER. Two of this bunch already Grade 1 winners, one is a National Hunt Chase winner, and one is a wide-margin Kim Muir winner. Woof!

After yesterday, SPILLANE’S TOWER became the most recent Grade 1 winner for McManus as he landed the Grade 1 Novice Chase Gold Cup, handing trainer Jimmy Mangan a first Grade 1 success since CONNA CASTLE won the same race 16 years ago. The horse was bred by McManus’ wife Noreen. 

Strength-wise, it probably wasn’t up to the level of a standard Grade 1 (BLOOD DESTINY ran his race and the second, TACTICAL MOVE, had form with NICK ROCKETT, so it was probably Grade 2 level).

We imagine due to his size and trace record, a step up to 3m will suit which might be counter to his pedigree which is more flat miler based. He’s been pushed into 16/1 with some firms for the Ryanair and was introduced at 40/1 for the Gold Cup.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

17.00 IRISH GRAND NATIONAL

Completing our weekend of Irish previews is the Irish Grand National, one that is full of complexities and unknowns. The chief of which is NICK ROCKETT who is dipping his hoof into handicap company for the first time off a mark of 146. The last time he raced at Fairyhouse he smashed TACTICAL MOVE by seven lengths over 2m5f, a form that looks good now as he finished second to SPILLANE’S TOWER in a Grade 1 yesterday. 

He was also fourth to CORBETTS CROSS and MONTY’S STAR on chase debut, two horses who ran well at the Festival. He should be respected today. 

INTENSE RAFFLES won his last two and he beat WHERE IT ALL BEGAN in a novice chase over 2m6f two starts ago before WHERE IT ALL BEGAN won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown. He then bolted up in a nothing race at Fairyhouse lto and got 13lbs for his troubles – his ceiling is unknown currently and his dam, UNE ARTISTE, won a Grade 3 chase, so there’s hope he can handle this mark. He’s also related to two horses who stayed further than three miles.

Gavin Cromwell has a strong hand in the race this year with YEAH MAN and HARTUR D’ARC. The latter won the Leinster National with an element of ease lto and beating MINELLA COCOONER, who reopposes, by 15 lengths is good form based on what he did as a novice chaser, though the strength of the other horses in the race can be questioned. Cromwell is weary of the 9lb rise in the weights, but a mark of 137 could still be lenient as he’s only had the one handicap chase having been beaten in two beginners chases over inadequate distances.

As for YEAH MAN, he won the Haydock Grand National Trial, and on paper the race looks like good form. MY SILVER LINING is improving and won the Classic Chase when beating GALIA DES LITEAUX and HIGHLAND HUNTER bolted up at Newbury on his next start. 

Cromwell’s MO this season has been to send horses he knows are well-handicapped to Britain to scoop up decent pots, which would suggest an extra seven pounds for YEAH MAN to deal which could be achievable. However, this is much more competitive. 

GOOD TIME JONNY created some controversy when the British handicapper gave him a chase mark of 142, so connections swerved Cheltenham and now race of 132 in this contest. 

Could he be chucked in? Yes, but his combined losing margin over his last four races is 181 lengths, so you’d have to be brave to back him here.

Despite a lack of winners yesterday, Gordon Elliott always seems to have a few interesting runners in these handicaps, and the Irish Grand National is no different. FRONTAL ASSAULT is his usual type; an experienced handicapper dropping down the weights to a mark that he can win off. 135 is four pounds below the mark he had when he was third in the 2022 renewal. 

As for FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU, he is a novice chaser on handicap debut and Danny Gilligan takes off 5lbs. Based on his 14-length Grade 2 success over SANDOR CLEGANE and FLOORING PORTER in November, he is talented, and connections have skipped Cheltenham for this. He is also a different animal right-handed.

Finally, there was a feeling that WE’LLHAVEWAN was a certainty when he lined up at odds of 5/4 to win the Grand National Trial in February and he just found one too good. A weight of 10-1 means a light jockey has to get on him, so that responsibility has fallen to Kieran Callaghan who also takes off five pounds. He could well make a mockery of a 123 rating.

Verdict: We will side with proven stayer FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU in this. He loves the mud and may have been ridden to get beat the last twice with this race the target. 16/1 ew - shop around for places.

RISK ON

We’ll have a small play in the big one the Irish Grand National plus:

14.55 DUBAI HONOUR

Should be well clear of the field and subsequently very short at 10/11 so needs to lever another. WRECKLESS ERIC, a previous strong bet winner for us could be the play. DUBAI HONOUR & WRECKLESS ERIC double pays 3.5/1.

14.53 LADY DORCHESTER

A nice price at 9/2 for a dirty ew - she ran out of gas in the dying strides lto suggesting she needed the blow. Was a nice yearling, should be bang there. Small ew.

16.00 MARHABA YA SANAFI

Over in Saint Cloud. French Guineas winner and French Derby placed. Proper horse who doesn’t mind the heavy ground and is a course and distance winner. 2/1 a half bet against heavily backed Godolphin fave.

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