Equinties - inseine number of entries for l'Arc

Gm Equinauts

Insider trading isn’t illegal in the unregulated market that is horse racing and a lot of it goes on. When the sport is being crippled by lack of prize money, often, cheating is the only way owners (who care) can make racing pay.

It’s why, without info, betting in lower-grade racing can be dangerous. At Listed level and above, all are trying but when you dive into the class 5 and class 6’s, this is when the race cards become a minefield, you have absolutely no idea which ones are off.

The conversations in the parade ring are shrouded in an omerta, a code of silence rewarded to owners for wearing the little swing badge – the understated signal you’re paying for this whole show. ‘Quiet ride’, ‘look after him/her’ and ‘don’t knock him/her about’ are the most common orders owners give to jocks, and all translate to ‘don’t fucking win’.

Note: only people who don’t own racehorses and never had these conversations think this isn’t true. That’s naïve.

Despite how illusive these parade conversations might appear; gambles are always leaked. Market makers, liquidity providers, fellow owners and even friends - anyone who has had a part to play in the process of getting a bet on can’t help but want to be the popular guy in the know. I thank them for being so vain. It’s how BGP 1 got on master plotter, Haslam’s yesterday.

This leaked info tends to come late when there is liquidity in the market for owners to be able to move size. This newsletter is out too early to be able to include any real info before the price is vapourised. The BGP Capital betting discord will solve this problem.

BGP Capital will act as a betting advisory as much as it will act as a pinhook scheme. This is your last full day to register your interest, doors close tomorrow. It’s £50 to register your interest now and then full payment (for whichever tier you choose) is expected on October 1st.

Join here:

Headline Roundup

Arc news

Europes biggest flat race is just five days away and some big news has come out about Sunday’s Prix l’Arc de Triomphe.

Firstly, 27 stand their ground for the £2.4 million contest after yesterday’s forfeit stage, including last year’s first and fifth, TORQUATOR TASSO and SEALIWAY, as well as ONESTO, WESTOVER, and the horses mentioned below.

Only 20 normally run in l’Arc but this year, due to the overwhelming number of entries, France Galop officials for the first time admitted they’re thinking about waiving the 20-runner limit. Might we see a 27 runner Arc?

One of those entries is John and Thady Gosden’s MISHRIFF. A surprising inclusion for the 1m4f event despite his perceived favouritism towards the Champion Stakes at Ascot two weeks later – Ted Voute, racing manager to owner Prince Faisal, said the four-year-old wouldn’t want “rattling fast or heavy or dead” (not too much to ask for) and the Arc would be the “better fit timewise before Keeneland”.

Currently, the ground is good at Longchamp, but the Met Office is reporting potential rain for today, Thursday, and Saturday… and when it rains in Paris, it fucking pours. Chances are, it's going to be proper slop come the weekend.

And of course, the big news to come out over the weekend was that Rob Hornby, a two-time Gr1 winner this year, is set to get the leg back up on 14/1 shot WESTOVER.

Hornby rode the three-year-old to finish a staying-on third in the Derby three starts ago but he was chucked off by owners Juddmonte for the horse’s following two outings as they opted for Colin Keane to take the ride instead – Keane guided him to success in the Irish Derby before he finished fifth in the Gr1 King George four weeks later.

More:

Yearling Sales - Ireland

There’s going to be some fireworks in Ireland today as transfer season is in full swing.

The Goffs Orby sale is the best yearling sale in Ireland, and it kicks off today at 9:30am at Kildare. 50 to 60 bloodstock agents have come over from America, on a chartered flight probably paid for by Goffs and most trainers and agents from England are there, some from France, Germany, Poland, Sweden and from other corners of the globe.

Siblings of Classic winners, Group 1 winners and Group winning 2yo’s will all be offered - that really does get the juices (and money) flowing. Some notable lots that will take some deep pockets to net:

Lot 50 – FRANKEL filly; sister to 2019 Prix de Diane (French Oaks) winner, CHANNEL

Lot 57 - KINGMAN colt; brother to Classic winner HOMESLESS SONGS

Lot 93 – NO NAY NEVER filly; sister to multiple Gr1 winning 2yo this year, BLACKBEARD.

Lot 453 – NEWBAY filly; brother to Gr1 winner SAFFRON BEACH.

TRUESHAN to miss France

TRUESHAN has forfeited his chance to retain his Gr1 Prix du Cadran crown on Saturday as Alan King confirmed that the two-time Group 1 victor will miss the 2m4f contest.

The Gr2 Long Distance Cup, a race he won last year, is the new target for this six-year-old by PLANTEUR (owned by Megababe’s owner), as King said: “He won’t be ready in time for the Cadran so we will hold off for Ascot - we will worry about everything else when the time comes, we need to make sure the ground is going to be right first.”

More:

Atzeni and Al Maktoum part ways

Andrea Atzeni will no longer be the retained rider for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum, ending an eight-year partnership.

The pair operate at an all-time SR of 20% (193/945) – their last Group 1 success together came via EMARAATY ANA in the 2021 Betfair Sprint Cup.

Different to many other high-profile splits, this one seems to be very calm and civil – the failed competition of his new contract is the reason for their decision, and they haven’t fallen out, meaning both are very much open to working together in the future.

More:

Risk on

13.14 HARSWELL DUKE

Should be an ew to nothing. Given a chance by the handicapper and creeps into a 0-80 today at a track he’s run well at before (off 84). Full bet ew at 4/1.

13.44 UNITED APPROACH

Only REZ to beat (we tipped lto) and form of his debut is working out really well. Long journey to track for Tate who should be rewarded today. Full bet at 6/5, now evens or leverage for another bet.

Trading suggestion: Leverage on Don’s MASTER MALACHY in the 15.20 or Milton’s GENTLE SLOPES in the 16.30, who both look like bankers pays about 5/2. Small bet on the treble pays 5’s.