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Equinties - hurdling days ahead
BGP Capital
December 09, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Watch your bins, guys - there’s a storm about. They’ve named this one Bram, who you might be aware authored the world famous novel Dracula (a classic have you not read it).
Bram has the potential to such the life out of racing this week. We need our Christmas money!
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
HURDLING DAYS AHEAD?
On Sunday, Gordon Elliott revealed that BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD could well run over hurdles instead of fences this season, and by his tone, it seemed almost like he was leaning towards hurdles over fences for the Grade 1-winning mare.
We purposely left this news for today because we wanted to give it a good few column inches (oi oi).
This is a sizeable piece of news for many reasons. Why are they doing it? There are two trains of thought – she either jumps like a snooker table over fences at home (and they’ve exhausted every avenue to correct her) or they’ve simply looked at the two-mile hurdling division and thought “we’ll have a piece of that”.
The idea that she isn’t the best over fences isn’t the first time it’s been floated. At the start of last season, when Gordon Elliott made a pretty last-minute decision to switch to hurdles, this was suggested, but one would assume that she must be okay if they were happy to go over fences this season. Furthermore, her siblings, MIGHTY POTTER and CALDWELL POTTER, were/are fine chasers, and while this isn’t gospel, it’s a nice thing to have in the locker.
What probably is true is that she clearly isn’t easy to train at home, and she isn’t 100% consistent on the track, very much like her bloodline. One day BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD looks like a world-beater (Christmas last year) and the next she’s put away at both Cheltenham and Aintree (MIGHTY POTTER blew out in both the Supreme and Turners Novices Chase when he was still around, and CALDWELL POTTER only got going in the second half of last season).
Also, this period of time that she has had on the sideline at the start of this season wouldn’t exactly be a positive, would it? Has she had small setbacks? Have they just been waiting for ground (which surely isn’t a valid excuse)?
Either way, her time away from the track could have been spent getting her into a beginners’ chase at the very least, but now, Elliott is in the position to either go to war with her over fences now or pull stumps on that idea AGAIN and give her more time over hurdles.
Very much like Nicky Henderson with SIR GINO, it is hard to prepare these horses for Cheltenham when they haven’t run over fences before Christmas. It’s not impossible, but it’s hard. At least SIR GINO has age on his side being a five-year-old gelding – BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is a six-year-old mare who could well be eight before she gets to a spring festival over fences.
All this just points back to the original question of why do this? It’s most probably that he wants to go to Christmas, potentially win, and then have another go at the Champion Hurdle as Gordo is probably still hurt by the fact that BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD didn’t show up in March.
There is something that smells just a little off about this, but we’re not going to jump to conclusions. If she goes over hurdles, while it would be a bit of a shame (considering how bullish Gordo has been about her over the larger obstacles), she does add a big element to a wide-open division.
But there are many questions that remain unanswered about her namely whether she is a spring horse at all.
WHERE ARE YOU?
In the words of Delia Smith, WHERE ARE YOU? Let’s be having you. Come on!
By “you”, we are referring to the Irish two-mile novice hurdlers, because seriously, where are they?
We know what you’re screaming at your computer or phone, and yes, we agree, Willie Mullins hasn’t sent out his best novice hurdlers yet. He loves to get them out late, case and point, IMPAIRE ET PASSE in 2022 who made his stable debut on December 20th. Two starts later, he won the Ballymore. But it’s fair to say that in the limited sample size we have at our disposal for this season so far, the Brits are in a nice position for the Supreme.
MYDADDYPADDY looks like a bit of a weapon, ACT OF INNOCENCE was very good on debut at Newbury, and HURRICANE PAT looked like a smart one indeed on Saturday in Listed company at Sandown.
We slightly glossed over HURRICANE PAT in yesterday’s review, but he was clearly very good, even if he does have a few things to work on. Firstly, he can jump out to his left, which would be fine at somewhere like Cheltenham, but it wouldn’t want to be too profound. The quality of the field he beat on Saturday could also be questioned to a degree as SOBER GLORY probably didn’t run to his absolute best. Still, he was gun straight in his action during the final few furlongs, and he is clearly smart. But just how smart?
Well, the Supreme is his target, and his connections are purring.
But how do they get there? Josh Moore was pretty against running him in the Formby at Christmas, so that really leaves three options. The Grade 2 Rossington Main in January, the Listed 2m1f novices’ hurdle at Exeter in February, or the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle in late Feb.
SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE was second in the Dovecote for the Moore’s in 2022, and Exeter is closer to the Moore’s than Haydock. We’d say it’s probably between these two, though the Dovecote is very close to Cheltenham time-wise. The issue with Exeter is that he may get a bit of an easy time of things, and if nothing is there to take on, how good will we actually know he is apart from just listening to the trainer/owner who will invariably have rose-tinted glasses? It’s a tricky one, but he is pretty smart, and he adds to a team of British horses who look well above average. So, Mr. Mullins, what have you got?
ANOTHER DAY
And finally, we’ve taken a small look at the weekend, and we see that JAGWAR is the favourite for the December Gold Cup. He was meant to race in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but softer ground ruled him out of it, which was interesting.
There’s a bit to unpack with this horse, because he is obviously a Plate winner the Cheltenham Festival, and connections think he could be somewhat of a Ryanair horse.
However, they built him up for the Paddy Power, but he didn’t run, and they’ve had to start again with him. He also could have ambitions of returning back to a Festival handicap in March if he dropped a few lbs in the handicap in the meantime, and this would start with this weekend. Furthermore, reading comments in the Racing Post wouldn’t fill you with a tonne of confidence.
Josh Guerriero said: "It was very frustrating not to see him out last time as it was the plan. We got him ready for it, so it's never ideal when you have to take a step back before building them back up again without having a run in between.
"But it was definitely the right decision. We didn't want to send him out on that ground first time out for the season because it makes it a long campaign.
"We just had to back off him and let him have a quiet couple of weeks. We've been slowly building him back up ahead of this weekend. It's not changed our plans. If he wins and goes up a bit on ratings, it gives us a different outlook on things, but we'll start here. We might look at Trials day after, for the two-and-a-half-mile handicap, if all went well on Saturday.
"He still has a lot of progression to do after Cheltenham. He didn't jump the best, but it was an amazing way to end the campaign, and we're hoping he can take another step forward this time."
This weekend could very much be just a ‘starting point’ for the horse, especially due to the fact that the yard had strangles (disease of the lymph nodes of the upper respiratory tract) in August which set the yard back “about a month to six weeks”.
If you’re a fan, then this weekend is a winnable race, but if not, there is scope to take on the current market leader.
RISK ON
Only one winner yesterday, should have been two. We’re still thinking about that last jump from DISGUISEDLIMIT.
Today we’re playing two in the slop:
14.30 SKI LODGE
Well fancied by connections and with the prep run under his belt, he should be cherry ripe today. His point form is big. 6/4 standard stake.
15.00 SWEET HONEY B
We remember this girl! We backed her in her Aintree bumper a couple of years ago. She’s been a long time off the track, we don’t know what was wrong with her but we’re guessing she’s been hard to keep sound? She’s worth chancing in this field - her pedigree is very nice and she will love the conditions, she just needs to be ready to go after the lay off (she did win a point to point bumper meaning the trainer can ready them first time up). Half stake at 10/1.
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