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Equinties - home from home
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Gm Equinauts
Another brilliant betting day of the newsletter yesterday. Our statement was well received, the new feature 'Young Blood' started with an 8/1 winner and both bets in Risk On landed.
Newsletter two from two BOOM as DREAM COMPOSER pisses up with that race edge fitness at 7’s.
Easy day.
— BGP Capital (@equinties)
4:24 PM • Apr 18, 2023
It's been a very, very bullish start to the year betting wise and if your bank isnt reflecting that, then you're following too many tipsters on Racing Twitter and/or betting too much.
People have to start reining it in, betting less and keep a mindset to protect your betting bank at all times.
I cannot emphasize enough how useful the TOTE Fantasy game is to help lock the chimp up. If it works for me and the members of BGP Capital, it'll work for you.
The home of the flat and the jumps join together today to make up the TOTE Fantasy today as the 7 race game features action at both Cheltenham and Newmarket!
Maintain an interest in every race without the financial commitment - set up your stable and add it to our league using code: QHZ36G.
Now, let's dive tf in.
Headline roundup
(New font, what do you think?)
Big future for Varian
The last 24 hours have been exciting for Roger Varian as he looks ahead to a future that could be very successful for him, both short-term and long-term.
Easy does it - here’s Sakheer coming home ahead in his gallop at @NewmarketRace. He will be back here on Saturday fortnight for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas
— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
11:56 AM • Apr 18, 2023
Firstly, before the opening day of the Newmarket Craven meeting, his 2000 Guineas hope SAKHEER took to the Rowley Mile for a pre-Guineas racecourse gallop, one that was “perfect”.
🗣️Roger Varian on SAKHEER this morning after Newmarket gallop:
“It was perfect. He will come forward nicely for it.
“We are as confident as we can be. We wouldn’t be running him if we didn’t think he had a strong chance of getting the mile.”
#Guineas
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno)
3:37 PM • Apr 18, 2023
The 7/1 chance easily left a stablemate in his dust over five furlongs yesterday and jockey David Egan came off the horse and said: "I can't wait for the 2000 Guineas and these horses are what it's all about. It's the first time I've sat on him this year and physically he's a stronger horse, as you'd expect from a nicely bred individual.”
We know Sakheer is a quality racehorse but will he stay the mile of the Guineas? @varianstable said
“I could not tell you for sure but I think he’s got a strong chance. He’s speedy but he’s bred to stay a mile, plus a bit further, and has a good temperament.” @NewmarketRace— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
12:22 PM • Apr 18, 2023
Away from the racecourse, the Newmarket stable will be expecting a new edition to their team very soon as Oliver St Lawrence purchased a MUNNINGS colt for 360,000gns on Day 1 of the Tattersalls Craven Breeze Up Sale to be trained by Varian.
🤩 New top lot at the #TattsCraven Breeze Up as @longwaystables' Munnings' colt out of Gr.3 winner Separate Forest goes the way of @OStLawrence for 360,000gns.
— Tattersalls (@Tattersalls1766)
6:57 PM • Apr 18, 2023
This beautiful-looking chestnut is out of the Gr3 Santa Anita-winning SEPARATE FOREST and has a big price tag to live up to.
Newmarket is blue
Day one of the Craven meeting yesterday and the boys in blue did what the boys in blue do as they had a superb few hours at HQ with a facile double.
It all started with MAJESTIC PRIDE in the opener as the SHAMARDAL colt found plenty for pressure and won under Buick.
Majestic Pride (Shamardal) is a half-brother to the top-class Farrh and scores on three-year-old debut at @NewmarketRace.
First race of the year, but susual service resumed as Appleby and Buick combine for victory on the Rowley Mile 🏇
— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
12:57 PM • Apr 18, 2023
A step-up in trip and soft ground will be his gig going forward but trainer Charlie Appleby doesn’t believe he is one for the Guineas.
🗣 "I don't really feel like [Majestic Pride] is a Guineas contender."
Charlie Appleby on:
Noble Style 👔
Silver Knott 🪢
Mysterious Knight ♞
Hurricane Lane 🌪
Adayar 😎
Fairy Cross 🧚♀️#ITVRacing | @NewmarketRace | @godolphin | @MCYeeehaaa
— ITV Racing (@itvracing)
1:13 PM • Apr 18, 2023
A few hours later, the Appleby and Buick duo sauntered to further success in the feature Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes as OTTOMAN FLEET, our bet of the day, won comfortably.
Ottoman Fleet finishes with a flourish to land the feature bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes for Charlie Appleby and William Buick at @NewmarketRace.
Not a bad start for trainer and jockey on the Rowley Mile in 2023! 🏇
— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
2:45 PM • Apr 18, 2023
The second, POKER FACE, will be better for a bit of race fitness nto and looks to be one to watch.
Big race previews
FIELDEN STAKES
Classic winner GOLDEN HORN and INTELLO have won this in the past so is a race to follow the winners.
BOLD ACT has won his last four races, most recently at Chelmsford. That was a conditions race for the ‘Kentucky Derby’ hopefuls. Trained by Appleby and ridden by Buick who represent a lethal duo this time of year, or all year round.
INTINSO and CANBERRA LEGEND both come here having won at Newcastle over a mile. The Ferguson trained CANBERRA LEGEND clocked a noticeably quicker time over c&d and is equally well bred by the stallion AUSTRALIA. BLANCHLAND is the highest rated in the field, albeit most are lightly raced. He’s by FARHH so won’t mind the underfoot soft conditions, and he has course form having come second to a smart Godolphin horse FLYING HONOURS who incidentally is 20/1 for the Derby. It’s worth noting that the two Godolphin’s runners today are not entered in the Derby at this stage. REGAL HONOUR and KOLSOI did battle over the course last year. KOLSOI got the better of the Godolphin runner. Both are well bred and in the hands to improve further.
Our view: it took a good one to beat BLANCHLAND over this course last year. He won’t mind any give in the ground and is the one to be on. We're hearing good things for CANBERRA LEGEND who is the ew hedge.
NELL GWYN STAKES
Generally considered a Guineas trial for the fillies, this is a deep field.
🏇 𝙁𝙧𝙚𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙘𝙚 𝙋𝙖𝙨𝙨 𝙋𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙚𝙬: 𝙉𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙂𝙬𝙮𝙣 𝙎𝙩𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙨
🔍 You can access our weight-adjusted ratings, pace map, flags and more for the (Group 3) Nell Gwyn Stakes at @NewmarketRace, due off at 15:35...
Check out our Race Passes preview here 👇
— Timeform (@Timeform)
6:15 PM • Apr 18, 2023
Cachet won this last year and went on to win the 1000 Guineas in May and the winning combo from last year Boughey and Highclere Racing will be hoping or believing, BELIEVING can win this and do the double. Form ties with the other Boughey runner in QUEEN OLLY, they have course form and were Group placed last year.
BAREFOOT ANGEL won a nice race at Ayr beating Believing and finished her season behind the hood yardstick COLD CASE at Ripon.
COPPICE, GIRL RACER, INNER SPICE and KARSAVINA have all ran once and won once. All well bred and entitled to come on a bundle for top trainers. The market says COPPICE wins this and gives Frankie his eighth win in the race.
👀
Coppice (Kingman) is a sister to the hugely talented Calyx and makes the perfect start for the Gosdens and @JuddmonteFarms at @kemptonparkrace
— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
6:22 PM • Oct 19, 2022
FAIRY CROSS is one to note as she should be ready for this contest having ran well at Meydan. She found MAWJ to good over there but she is a fine barometer for a form line.
🏆Prestige Fillies' Stakes (G3)
1410m, 60.000 GBP, for 2yo fillies
🇬🇧GoodwoodFairy Cross (IRE)
(Dubawi - Devonshire, by Fast Company)
J :William Buick
T :Charlie Appleby
O : Godolphin— 𝙒𝙤𝙧𝙡𝙙𝙍𝙖𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 (@WorldRacing1)
1:01 PM • Aug 27, 2022
SMALL OASIS has the services of Oisin and has sacred course form. She was third in a good renewal of the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket. She didn’t handle the heavy going at the end of last season so will prefer any good in the description today.
Our view: the full sister to Coventry Stakes winner CALYX, COPPICE, has been well found in the market and it's difficult to go against her today. FAIRY CROSS and SMALL OASIS might rep the ew players if COPPICE is too short.
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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD
Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends
16.10 Newmarket
A class 2 maiden race full of rockets and there are several to highlight including a close relation to NEWSPAPEROFRECORD.
PERSIAN DREAMER has a lovely pedigree. She is a sharp looking daughter of CALYX and a half sister to the speedy NO NAY NEVER filly QUEEN OLLY (also runs today at Newmarket) who is owned by the same connections and was 4th at Royal Ascot last year as a 2yo over 6f before being 3rd in the Duchess of Cambridge, Gr2. Amo Racing bought PD for €145k and have had a great start to their season (the Intern will be tweeting a thread on how Amo are so good at readying their 2yo's).
DOROTHY LAWRENCE is by the speedy SOLDIERS CALL who won the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot as a 2yo and was crowned France’s Champion 2yo. Her siblings include FESTIVE STAR who was a precocious daughter of GOLDEN HORN winning a Listed race at 2 and PURE INNOCENCE who is the dam of DESERT DREAMER who was placed a total of 6 times as a 2yo in Group and Listed company. She has been backed to fave.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ll know that BLUE POINT has made a bright start to his stallion career siring 2 fto winners, one being BLUE STORM who we flagged up yesterday and he is the sire of SPECIFIC TIMES for Charlie Johnston. This filly is out of DAILY TIMES who was unsold for 600k carrying this filly in utero (she did eventually sell for 800k last year in foal to LOPE DE VEGA). She is a winning half sister to dual Gr1 winner NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (woof!) and from the family of Irish Derby winner LATROBE. A very good pedigree and you can kind of bank of Charlie Johnston having a 2yo ready fto.
Johnston's has the classiest pedigree in this race (NEWSPAPEROFRECORD is by LOPE DE VEGA, a son of SHAMARDAL. Johnston's is by BLUE POINT, also a son of SHARMADAL) and could be exciting.
16.45 Newmarket
This class 4 maiden stakes is full of class. Two take the eye with two perhaps for further down the line.
LUDMILLA made a hugely promising debut, if the race was over 50yds more she probably would have won as the penny started to drop coming out of the dip. It was a bunched finish but the form looks good with the winner contesting the Gr3 at 3:35 today and the second place runs tomorrow in a maiden. By KINGMAN out of a Listed winner, she's 3yo this year and Gosden has had an incredible start to the season with his older horses.
SILVER LADY is by SEA THE STARS out of LUMIERE who was a Gr1 winning 2yo and Gr2 placed at 3. She has produced HIGHLAND AVENUE who was a 105 rated Listed winner. She's been smashed off the boards which is telling given she hasn't even run yet!
A full-sister to ARIZONA, NEVER ENDING was a 825,000gns NO NAY NEVER yearling but didn’t live up to that price tag on debut. She could be one for handicaps further down the line unless she's massively improved now a 3yo.
RISING BAY didn’t have a great day out on debut, broke poorly and then didn’t get a run, when she did finally get clear running the ship had sailed. Interesting Balding picks Newmarket for her return, a much more galloping track to Kempton. She’s by Kingman out of a NEW APPROACH mare who comes from a very good family, who all improve from 2-3yo. Like most Balding horses, it would be no surprise if she needed the run today for fitness and education and one be on nto. Watch and make a note of this one.
Risk on
13.50 ELWASME
Should improve from seasonal debut and form is solid. Buick steering. He's better than his mark and is a good bet at 4's (was 6's this morning but this newsletter has been a monster to write).
There might be another bet later, posted @equinties in twitter.
Staking and banking
There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.
If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.
Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.
The TOTE FANTASY features Newmarket and Cheltenham today and we're playing. Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: