Equinties - her conditions

Gm Equinauts

Cheers Windsor…

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

SQUEAKY SHAGGAS

"Having initially cut Almeraq to 8-1 for the Coral Stewards' Cup, we were soon forced to cut those odds again to 5-1, and even that didn't deter punters, with the Ayr winner now an even shorter-priced market leader for one of the most competitive sprint handicaps of the season.”

That’s the quote from Coral’s David Stevens in the Racing Post yesterday regarding ALMERAQ, an impressive winner of the Ayr Gold Cup Trial at Ayr.

There was quite a lot to like about this effort on Monday afternoon, even if his main market rival, WICKET KEEPER, was pulled up to be seen by the vets. For one, he was a three-year-old heading into his first handicap against some experienced animals, and it’s not like he had no weight to carry either. Top weight was 10-0, and he lumbered 9-9.

You’d have to have a pretty cold heart not to be taken aback by the way he was able to get to the front on his own on the far side of the pack and stretch away. Lovely stuff.

For as much as the performance was very sharp, William Haggas and connections now have a bit of a difficult decision to make, especially with the Stewards’ Cup in mind.
He has obviously been backed/shortened in the market for this race, so on initial viewing, one could easily think that this is just the natural step.

However, as we have seen very recently regarding ante-post market moves for some of Aidan O’Brien’s horses, these early markets aren’t gospel, and the quotes from Angus Gold post-race wouldn’t inspire confidence about a run at Glorious Goodwood.

He said: "We always hoped last year that he would be a nice horse and he just had a few little niggles in the spring, which held William up when they wanted to get going with him.

"The only thing I would caution - I haven't spoken to William, all options are open - but we've taken a long time and been very patient with him.
"Hopefully his future is all in front of him and hopefully in the autumn we will get some decent ground, so I'm not saying he won't run at Goodwood, but l'd be surprised if he bounced straight back in after being so patient with him.

"It's only 12 days away so let's see. We'll see what weather does and see how he comes out of this.”

He’s had setbacks, William Haggas has been patient with him, and they’re on weather watch. In the words of Simon from the Inbetweeners: “That’s a hat-trick. F*** off.”
Still, even with this notable windiness from connections, he has a profile that could go very well in the Stewards’ Cup.

Three three-year-olds have won the race in the last 10 years, and five of the last 10 winners had won their most-recent handicap start before winning the Stewards’ Cup. STATS!

Furthermore, one can imagine that the handicapper may give him 8lbs+ for yesterday’s win, but he would only get a 6lb penalty at Goodwood. Connections chucked him an entry for the Group 1 Sprint Cup Stakes; if they think he could be good enough for a Group 1, he must be good enough to go rather close in a handicap off 96.

The weather could well be the thing that stops him from running in 11 days’ time, but for the pure love of the game, it would be fun to see him there.

BRAVING THE THUNDER

For a few of you UK residents, you may have experienced some thunder and lightning. Windsor did, and that led to a pretty mental start in the fillies’ restricted novice stakes.
No stalls for a six-furlong two-year-old race with fillies. Really? FARSE.

There could well be more thunder roaming around next week. Of course, we’re not talking about the weather, we’re literally talking about MORE THUNDER, the Bunbury Cup winner.

Yes, we are THAT good.

The William Haggas-trained four-year-old has improved by 16lbs since he moved from Sir Michael Stoute, winning three of his four outings so far this season. He’s on a great roll!

The handicapper nudged him up 5lbs to a mark of 103 after his recent Bunbury Cup success at Newmarket, and while he was a potential runner in Saturday’s International Handicap at Ascot over seven furlongs, connections will miss the race in favour of running him in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood next week.

This isn’t ground-breaking news, as many people thought this would be the natural step if he won at Newmarket (which he did), but having only won by a nose, and with his still potentially lenient mark, it would have been easy for connections to be tempted by one more handicap run back over a successful course and distance.
The decision to go to this specific Group race at Goodwood is even more intriguing when you consider that NEVER SO BRAVE, trained by Andrew Balding and owned by the same connections, is an intended runner in the Lennox. Double trouble for Saeed Suhail.

Phillip Robinson, racing manager to Suhail, said: “His owner is adamant that his [MORE THUNDER] next race will be a Group race. “He’s come out of Newmarket well and certainly looks a potential Group horse, but I don’t think he’ll go beyond 7f this year.

“I could see them both running in it. It’s probably the ideal race for both of them and, at the moment, they’re both pencilled in but it’s a conversation we’ll have to have to see if we can split them up. If both trainers want to go there, that may well sway it for both of them to go. It's a nice race to win and it gives you two bullets."

And fair play to Suhail. The International would be a difficult race to win so quickly after a pretty gruelling Bunbury Cup, so a smaller race could suit MORE THUNDER better, and he now has two fine chances at winning a Group race worth £102,078 to the winner.

The race doesn’t look to have a superstar in it right now, so they are well worth their place.

HER CONDITIONS

There has been an aroma around KALPANA this season, and that whiff of speculation has been voiced on social media a few times. The theory that has been put forward is that there will be one race for KAPLANA this season: the Arc.

We’re not a huge fan of this theory. For pure broodmare value, do we really think Juddmonte would be happy with her being just below 100% all season in the hope that she is cherry ripe for the Arc in October? This is racing; you have to run your horses on their merits in these top Group 1 races when you have the chance. Who knows what is around the corner?

Anyway, her next run is set to be the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and to the untrained eye, this should be much more up her street after two promising runs this season.

Last season, the STUDY OF MAN filly won one race over 1m3f, one race over 1m3½f, and one race over 1m4f, so she does like any distances around 1m4f. Even though she was a very good third in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and an equally great second in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes, both of these runs against proper smart horses, these two races were over 1m2f. A return to 1m4f should surely be more to her liking, and a trip back to Berkshire is also a welcome sight.

This is something Barry Mahon of Juddmonte agrees with, as he said: “I think her two runs this year have been very solid. We know she's proven over a mile and a half on soft ground, so for her to produce those performances [this season] over ten furlongs on quicker ground is very promising.

"We would be hopeful of a strong showing on Saturday back over 12 furlongs, for all it looks a competitive race.”

This happens more in the jumps season, but we always talk about races in the future that would be ‘perfect’ for a certain horse. Say it’s a handicapper running at the DRF; a case could be made for this hypothetical horse to win a Cheltenham handicap rather than the very suitable handicap that is right in front of them.

In this case, the Arc is being hyped up as THE race for KALPANA this season. That’s fine, obviously, because 1m4f on potentially softer ground does sound like her conditions.

But, this weekend, KALPANA has a Group 1 at Ascot (a track she has won at before) on ground that, for the first time in months, isn’t rattling quick.
This is the race for her, and she should be at her absolute best for it.

STATS OF THE DAY

Moffatt had 10 runners at Cartmel yesterday, 3x winners and 4x 2nd’s. Wow. A top da for the stats section.

Today there are no standouts.

RISK ON

One of the worst punting days for a long time yesterday. For all the wrong reasons.

REIMAGINED was one of those infrequent bets that a punters have to make the most of and that opportunity was taken away from us yesterday.

Nothing today, there are several bets tomorrow.