Equinties - Hendo's squad

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Let's dive in.

Headline roundup

Hendo’s battalion

Nicky Henderson opened his doors to the best of British media yesterday to take a look at his Cheltenham Festival team so naturally I've nicked a load of tweets from someone who was there.

Here’s a rundown of his team.

CONSTITUTION HILL could be going chasing next season:

Still undecided on MARIES ROCK target:

However, Nicky seems pretty confident on LUCCIA’s next race:

And it looks to be Turners bound for BALCO COASTAL:

Dan Skelton is having his media day today as well so make sure to keep those eyes on Twitter for the latest news.

More:

ALLA-OUT

In what was probably the biggest piece of news yesterday, Willie Mullins confirmed that Allaho, the two-time Ryanair Chase winner, will miss the Cheltenham Festival due to an abdominal bleed.

There was smoke and then there was fire yesterday as a huge drift on the exchanges preceded the agonising news for antepost punters.

Having not been seen since his emphatic Punchestown Gold Cup victory in April, the nine-year-old is now out for the season following this “unusual” injury.

Mullins said: “He worked very well on Saturday. He came back, dried off, we put him into his box and had his lunch. Then after lunch we found him to be a little bit distressed and we thought he was getting a colic, but it didn't look like a colic. It was something else.

"We brought him straight down to Fethard Equine Hospital and they found that he had got a bleed in his abdomen, which is hugely unusual. I don't think I've ever seen that in a horse before. He was comfortable over the weekend, but still critical. This morning he moved off the critical list.

Mullens has trained thousands of horses in his lifetime, but had never seen this before.

There's only one thing that could have caused this...

Fingers crossed the boy can make a speedy recovery.

More:

Quickest ground in 25 years

Fakenham’s Friday fixture has been called off due to the “quickest ground in 25 years” experienced at the track.

The course has received just 6mm of rain in the last four weeks and they are unable to irrigate on the ground as their license doesn’t start until March.

Clerk of the Course, David Hunter, said: "In 25 years, I've not seen the ground this quick in February. It's very quick and we can't irrigate until March 1. It's very dry with no rain forecast this week, apart from possibly 2-4mm on Thursday evening, but that will be too little too late.”

Is this a worrying sign of things to come over the next few years? Unraceable ground due to quickness in February is a major concern.

In the same vein, but different context, Nicky Henderson aired his concerns over the inclement weather interrupting his Festival prep plans for big boy, CONSTITUTION HILL. The Sevenbarrows ground is drying up fast and soon might be too unsafe to gallop him on. An away-day on the Kempton all-weather might be on the cards.

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Today's best stats

The most bullish stat today is for Olly Murphy in the Ayr bumper where he's 4 from 4. Read my thoughts below.

Bumper preview

Ayr

This is a hard bumper to read with a few types in here who could win on paper.

LUNAR DISCOVERY heads this market despite the big penalty and that's because she's won so easily the last twice. Her trainer, Moffat also trains the half brother in BINGOO who they think is fairly useful and this girl hasn't done anything wrong yet so with Charlotte Jones keeping the ride, another big performance looks likely.

The main danger to LD's hat trick bid is SHE'S A FINE WINE for Olly Murphy who is 4 from 4 in Ayr bumpers. This girl is very well related and on paper would be my idea of the winner but the money isn't really speaking for her atm (she's still 4's in places).

SVETLOVA is bred to be able to win a race of this type too - especially given the yard target bumpers.

This race could even be landed by CARRIGEEN KALI who is bottom of the market at 100/1. The drift says she's not trying but she's quite well bred being out of a once rated 138 chaser in Ireland and a half to useful horses in KALIFORNIA (8th in Champion bumper) and Nicky Henderson's ill-fated CLARENDON STREET.

CARIGEEN KALI owners have BROADWAY JOE running today too, a horse we caught the gamble on back in Jan '21. Trainer Nick took his time with this gamble, dropping the handbrake in the horse's second season under rules and second start in handicap company off a mark of 91. He did EXACTLY the same with the owners other horse CLAN LEGEND who won his second time in handicap company off of 91.

So... the big question: are they going to try with CARIGEEN KALI or will they go for the low 91 mark and pull the trigger in late '24 possibly early '25 in novice handicaps? The price today and trend with the owners previous horses suggests no, they'll wait but ...and I say this wearing my tin foil hat, what if they go for the double today. I've looked at their respective races... they could pull it off.

Trainer Nick is 1 from 1 with first time cheek pieces and BROADWAY JOE gets them today. What if CARIGEEN KALI was out for a pipe opener last time, to get prepped for the owner double today?

At 756/1, a 10 quid lunch money bet pays >7k. I can't not back it, even just to watch the race and then throw the tin foil away after, I've thought too much about it.

If CARIGEEN KALI finishes last, track the bastard and whack everything you can on when she's off 91 next year.

So, to summarise, I have no idea who wins this bumper. I think SVETLOVA could place and Olly Murphys SHES A FINE WINE prove quite useful. Both ew plays against the fave who will be tough to beat but opposable given her pen.

I love fine wine so, really there's only one mare I'd side with really.

Risk on

I've genuinely had a stupid small bet on the Nick Alexander x Clan Gathering Owner 756/1 double knowing full well it won't come in, but like all your ridiculous Festival ante-posts... It carries hopes and dreams.

There will be another bet posted on Twitter.