Equinties - Hendo upbeat

Gm Equinauts

The racing is always pretty dire this time of year as all the big yards focus on the last two weeks prep for the big one, Cheltenham Festival.

It does mean though that content gets pumped out from various media personalities which make for brilliant viewing:

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

UPBEAT HENDO

From the doom and gloom of Tuesday’s unpleasant findings at Kempton, Hendo’s more upbeat communication on the current status of CONSTITUTION HILL yesterday offered a glimmer of hope for all his ante-post backers. 

Well, it seems positive, but plenty in the industry still have their reservations including one Henrietta Knight, who believes it will take a miracle for the Freak to be back to his best in two weeks (Racing Post), and Kevin Blake who expressed his pessimism on At The Races:

Whether he runs or not, time will be crucial as to whether he can run. He will be oh so sorely missed in the race because without him, it’s an awful awful race as it’s been confirmed LOSSIEMOUTH will definitely NOT be rerouted to the Champion Hurdle and will stick to her Mares’ Hurdle plan. Makes sense for Willie Mullins tbf. 

CHELTENHAMS WARRIOR

Willie Mullins will have a strong team at the Festival (as expected), but his team got an extra boost yesterday as it was confirmed that GAELIC WARRIOR will run at Cheltenham. 

Coming into the DRF, he was a heavily-fancied favourite for the Turners Novices’ Chase, though his unseating at the last – and poor general performance – saw him pushed out to 8/1. Now into a general price of 4/1, he has entries for three novice chases at the Festival, but one would assume that the Turners is the most obvious place.

With LOSSIEMOUTH, GAELIC WARRIOR, and MONKFISH, Rich Ricci will have a good team of horses, though the horse Joe Chambers, racing manager to Ricci, thinks can outrun his odds is SHARJAH. 

Although we think he could run a stormer in the Plate (and he should probably go there), it looks like the Arkle is the race for him.

GO DAD! 

Ben Pauling is set to have a strong Cheltenham this year with the likes of BOWTOGREATNESS, HANDSTANDS, TELLHERTHENAME, and THE JUKEBOX MAN. 

Over the last month or so, Ben Jones has been the one riding his horses, but stable jockey Kielan Woods is set to be back in time to take on a few more rides. 

The Grand Annual-winning jockey (see vid below) has been on the sidelines for a considerable amount of time due to his 45-day whip suspension collected last month. 

However, he is raring to go and even has a new member of the family to fuel the ambition, as he said: "I've been extremely lucky to have had a baby boy last Thursday called Otis, which is just amazing, and it's been good to have had that time with him.

"Ben's horses are flying right now and long may it continue heading into March. Missing the festival last year was very annoying and I'm so thankful I'm back to ride in it this time with some good rides at the meeting, including Sixmilebridge [Champion Bumper], Harper’s Brook [Grand Annual], and The Jukebox Man [Albert Bartlett]. 

“Above all, I’m really looking forward to Tellherthename in the Supreme.”

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/kielan-woods-back-from-frustrating-45-day-ban-and-eyeing-promising-book-of-cheltenham-rides-aqpAl6A1ZGF4/

YOUNG BLOOD

TAUNTON BUMPER

Nicholls heads the market in this one...shock. SORCELEUR, a half to Snowden's bumper winner WENDINGO, has already run twice and is looking a bit exposed but still sets the standard. His last run, although in Listed company, was a race for 4yo's... he'll face older opposition today which makes his price a bit too short.

Nicholls has a second runner in BERLIATH who has a far better pedigree dam side than his stable mate and market fave. He is the half to good horses in ON THE SLOPES and Listed bumper winner GENTLE SLOPES. 5/2 out to 5's is a bit bearish but his blood makes him one to keep an eye on long term.

Within the small field, the other pedigree's to note are DEMELZA CARNE who is out of a heavy ground bumper winner and GOLDEN MOONSHAKE whose flat based pedigree dam side offers optimism for today.

Verdict: The market is shouting Nicholls’ fave SORCELEUR can’t lose this and it’s obviously telling Harry Coben, who is title chasing, has picked this one over BERLIATH who on paper, is much better bred. If Nigel Hawke was in better form we’d probably attempt some ridiculous tri-cast with the two Nicholls horses and GOLDEN MOONSHAKE. A non-betting heat with BERLIATH to track - he’ll end up the best horse from this race in time.

RISK ON

The racing is always a little underwhelming during the build up to Newbury, but after two days of tools down (which was annoying given the ones we looked at went in yesterday), we have several bets today:

15.15 LIVIN ON LUCO

This is a two horse race with Nicholls’. He has much better form than JACKPOT D’ATHOU and should be odds on. Given Nicholls’ is fave and pushing LIVIN ON LUCO to 11/10, it makes him a bet. Separate bet with WRECKLESS ERIC.

15.25 WRECKLESS ERIC & 16.50 FOURTOWNS

We backed WRECKLESS ERIC at a good price last time at Donny but the meeting was called off late owed to snow. Annoying as was meant to win then. Books recognised that gamble and haven’t dared give him away today. 10/11 into 8/13 he can only be used as leverage for another single today. A good bet unjustly priced. Lev goes on FOURTOWNS who is up against a shortie fave. FOURTOWNS Newbury form is very good and Paulings yard form is even better! 3/1 small double on the basis its a speccy form play on FOURTOWNS with WRECKLESS ERIC a banker.

15.50 CLOUDY FLAMINGO

Put in the shortlist last night at 20’s, someone else must think he stinks too as has been clipped into 9’s. Happy with that price given he has no form, it’s his race planning that has inspired this bet -NOT his form. Should have won his first point when slipped up, he then won after two attempts (it was a bad point). Subsequently sold to Keiran Burke (after several more crap efforts in bad Points) who chucked him into Listed company at Cheltenham where he held his own until being looked after. Three quiet runs over hurdles to get a mark, 75 could see this horse well handicapped. A HUGE leap of faith. Small 6/1 win only bet exchange to see if we need a tin foil hat or not.

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