- Equinties Newsletter
- Posts
- Equinties - Hendo festival tour
Equinties - Hendo festival tour
BGP Capital
February 19, 2026
Gm, Equinauts
It’s ‘CONSTITUTION HILL goes to Southwell’ eve and what a sorry state of affairs is it is for him and his loveable trainer. Instead of captaining Hendo Cheltenham and being front and centre of todays Festival yard tour, he’s on the box heading up North with people laughing at him.
It’s so sad to see.
But hey, he doesn’t know any different and we hope he absolutely thumps them tomorrow.
Let’s dive in.
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
WITH OR AGAINST
Every one, absolutely every one has already worked out in their heads whether CONSITUTION HILL is a back or a lay Friday, even if simply theoretical. The people who are so sick and tired, fed up to the back teeth of hearing about him (which fyi really is a lame ‘ooh, look how alternative I am (stfu)), have played out the race in their heads and come up their own verdict… the irony.
Multiple flat jockey champ and now G1 winning trainer Ricard Hughes, who has absolutely nothing to do with the race, has offered up his opinion on the race as merely a fan. We like that. He thinks he wins and he knows what he’s talking about.
We said a couple of weeks ago Oisin told his mates in the pub CONSTITUTION HILL felt like ‘a good thing’ (note: that was on the feel of the horse, not in the context of his race). He’s drifted since dec’s with punters seemingly taking him on in favour of the Amo horse SQUARE NECKER who has come in from 11’s into 15/8. He might even go off favourite if the momentum keeps going.
So, where is your theoretical wager going - are you with or against the big guy?
Tomorrow’s race might seriously go down in Southwell’s history books as it’s most watched race ever… and presumably hold the record forever after.
117%
117%. No, that’s not the overround of tomorrows big race at Southwell, because these days that would be great lmao. It’s the amount of rain we’ve had in Britain over it’s long term average. Ireland? 170%!
The Sandown card which was supposed to be one today was cancelled earlier this week, Clonmel has already pulled stumps for tomorrow describing the course at waterlogged and Exeter has an inspection at 8am tomorrow.
The rain is crazy, but how long long will it last? Are we set for a slop fest in March?
It would suit us down to the ground, pun intended, and luckily, bar a small poke on OLD PARK STAR at double digit odds when we said Sevenbarrows were all over him early, we haven’t got any risk on at the moment.
The ground is going to play a major part in the outcomes at the Cheltenham Festival. If the rain keeps coming through March and the festival is run in slop, it might bring horses you might not even have considered right to the fore. This is true for the other way around too. You never know, God might not have any buckets left to chuck over us. Imagine a quick ground Cheltenham after the start to the year we’ve had. You can chuck your form books out the window.
For us the ground is THE most important factor when betting racing, that’s one our edges.
As we do every year, our studying will commence on the week of the Festival when all runners are known, declared and markets not yet fully formed but the going is as accurate as possible. We aim to be as clinical as possible with our Cheltenham editions and in most cases there might not be many bets for the day, but mark our words, there will be big bets if the conditions suit. Yes, you need a lot of luck in a major festival but the main thing is they’re all good horses trying! That’s half the battle won.
HENDO FESTIVAL YARD TOUR
It’s bloody sad that we’re not talking about CONSITUTION HILL or SIR GINO in this yard tour but elite sport can be cruel sometimes.
HURDLERS
ACT OF INNOCENCE is firmly in Hendo’s ‘could be anything’ box and the ‘forgotten horses’ goes for the Turners.
IMPOSE TOI is in very good order but needs good ground for the Stayers or the Pertemps.
KHRISMA shouldn’t go up too much after this weeks win and “had to run” indicating they’re going to the County. Hendo’s wording suggests she’s well in.
MANLAGA, the ‘sweet filly’ was a last time out winner for us and is now eligible for the Fred Winter yet remains unexposed.
MUSTANG DU BREUIL needs three runs to get into the Fred Winter. Hendo says ‘he’ll be a nice horse’ so there is a feeling he might be saved for later instead of pushed to qualify for Cheltenham.
OLD PARK STAR has kept (positively) surprising Nicky - he thought he was a Turners horse but has shown himself fast enough for 2 miles in the Supreme. Hendo doesn’t know where he stands with him and can’t call him the ‘unbeatable’ like CON HILL and ALTIOR were, but he’s hopeful.
LUCKY PLACE was 4th in the Coral Cup behind Langer Dan two years ago and could go there again.
JOYEUSE is coming right at the right time and will go to the County. Don’t forget she is a three part relation to EPATANTE!
EAST INDIA EXPRESS is the ‘obvious one’ for the Martin Pipe. He needs good ground.
FANTASY WORLD didn’t take a blow at Musselburgh so is running again in the Adonis this Saturday. A headscratcher for Hendo. If he goes well the Triumph is an option for him.
CHASERS
LULAMABA has a lot of improvement to come in the Arkle. Every one happy with him.
JANGO BAIE is Hendo’s best Gold Cup hope for a number of years and is sure to stay up the hill.
JONBON is either going to the Ryanair or be put away for Aintree but the one thing missing on his CV is a Festival win.
JERIKO DU REPONET needs to jump better in a race his owner JP loves winning, the Kim Muir, and has previously been described by Hendo as a ‘very good horse’.
MISTER COFFEY has an ‘exciting’ entry in the National Hunt Chase.
In summary, Hendo’s team hasn’t the depth is should have with his two household stars on the side lines (CON HILL’s participation very much up in the air). Of the horses we think have the best chance? LULAMBA is the obvious pick of the bunch with the dark horses perhaps being LUCKY PLACE in the Coral Cup or IMPOSE TOI for the Pertemps (on good ground) should they go.
TO SEE OUR BETS, SUBSCRIBE BELOW!
