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Equinties - Haynes out
BGP Capital
December 05, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Some people reading this will judge this newsletter on the performance of our ‘risk on’ section and we to be honest, we get that. Some are indifferent to the sport as a whole and only see it as a betting product. To us, racing is a way of life and therefore a vast portion of you will know we consistently aim to produce value add content to help deepen your knowledge of the sport.
You’re going to read an article today you won’t find in the Racing Post, or any other racing publication, and in it we ask the sort of questions Nick Luck wouldn’t dare ask on one of his many self-branded shows.
We often write with the risk of ruffling industry feathers or getting in trouble, but given we’re a trying to be challenger in the racing publication ranks, we need to.
Anyway, above all the things we write about today, we wish Alice Haynes the best of luck in her next venture. It’s not nice to see anyone down and out and we hope she quickly finds something she can love as much as she loved training.
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
SLOWLY SLOWLY
Plenty has been said about this year’s potential field for the King George on Boxing Day, and this is for good reason. It could be one of the better renewals we have seen in years as GAELIC WARRIOR; JANGO BAIE; THE JUKEBOX MAN; and FASTORSLOW could make a great race. With the likes of FACT TO FILE and DJELO possible runners as well, Christmas day is set to be moved to Boxing Day.
But what about last year’s winner, BANBRIDGE? How is he?
Well, Joseph O’Brien has offered an update on him, as he said: “He took a little bit longer to come to hand this season. He was running very well in the race last year [Hilly Way Chase] before unseating. It's a nice starting point for him again and we're hoping we can get his season started in a positive manner and go from there.
"All roads lead to Cork at the moment and we'll see about the King George and what the next step will be afterwards. JJ Slevin will ride him if he's there. We'll have to look elsewhere if he's not, but at the moment it looks like he might be."
That’s not a ringing endorsement about a horse who, in 21 days, could be heading back to Kempton to defend his title in one of the season-defining races. Furthermore, even though he is the reigning champion, for reasons we’ve already outlined (his potential opponents), he will have a much tougher time of things this time around.
He also might not get the same race to suit his running style. Last year, IL EST FRANCAIS blew the race up from the front, and BANBRIDGE, who was a suspect stayer going into the race, picked them off one by one and nailed IL EST FRANCAIS after the last.
Tom George’s horse may not even line-up this year, and if he does, will he be able to set the same ferocious pace from the front? The jury is out. So, you may look at that 14/1 for BANBRIDGE in the King George and think ‘hmm, that’s tempting’. To be fair, at that price, you can’t have too many issues, but be warned, this year’s task for BANBRIDGE will be far from simple with a very different race run.
HAYNES GONE
Alice Haynes announced her retirement from the training ranks yesterday, blaming the ‘incredibly painful decision’ on finances.
Shocking and sad news to all who are already concerned over the state of the sport, right?
Well, of course it is, she was a very good trainer, who, we ourselves were quite confident in backing:
But Alice leaving the training ranks it’s a really weird one to get your head around considering she wasn’t short of horses, had Coral sponsoring the yard and the invoices she’d have sent out to the owners (who fund the whole damn thing) would have baked in a big fat margin.
It’s just all too much of an abrupt a departure for us not to question how this has happened.
Even if the yard cashflow was tight, surely she’d have marketed herself long ago on socials, or on one of the many aforementioned self-branded Nick Luck shows, in a bid to attract new business? Surely she’d have have asked for help? She’s only been in training ranks 5 short years and it’s clear she bloody loves the game, so would have done absolutely every thing to fight and keep the yard open.
Something stinks, something really stinks and we don’t believe she’s simply left on her own accord.
Let’s say Alice didn’t want to stop training. What’s the only thing/person/body that could force her to hand in her license?
Enter the BHA.
Now, of course we’re merely speculating here and for legal reasons we’re stating there is absolutely no truth in the remaining body of this article and we are merely hypothesizing as to the possible reasons which might force Haynes to quit.
Could the BHA have been about to take Haynes’ license away and if so has Haynes have made the first move to save face?
Lets take a purely hypothetical scenario…we were trainers and there had been a year long investigation by the BHA where they found something damning enough to want to rescind our license, what would we do? We’d probably chuck in the towel before the BHA could ban us.
If this is the case (which we’re NOT saying it is), then the BHA have seemingly allowed Haynes to walk away quietly.
But that’s too nice for the BHA! It stinks so much you’re almost forced to wonder what they’d want to hide. What would the BHA want to keep out the press?
Again, for legal reasons we’re not saying this is true or fact or even rumour, we’re merely suggesting what might be plausible considering the unusual circumstances of Haynes’ departure.
The only thing we could think of is something that would put the sport into disrepute, maybe cheating? from a PR perspective, the BHA want to keep racing whiter than white, right? There can’t be any cheating in our beloved sport!
At the end of the day, the racing world have learned that Alice Haynes has not been able to make training race horses a viable profession financially, which only serves as another boot up the arse of the industry to sort itself out, which is fine by us.
But if there was an ulterior reason as to why Haynes has stopped training such as the hypothetical scenario we explored above, then once can only point and laugh at the prize money situation and shout ‘can you blame trainers!?’.
BIG RACE PREVIEWS
13.45 2M 4F GRADE 2 WINTER NOVICES’ HURDLE
We are all surprised by the inclusion of NO DRAMA THIS END in this contest. Paul Nicholls was adamant after Cheltenham that the Challow would be next, but he's now here, and a hard race here could see his Challow target disappear.
Will Paul come to regret this? Has he got eyes bigger than his belly?
Well, ultimately, NO DRAMA THIS END should be winning on everything we know. He was very good in that Warwick bumper on NYE, and putting away HEADS UP on his hurdling debut is no mean feat. That Sandown hurdles track will be a tricky test today with yesterday’s rain, but he looks like a galloper who also has speed, so he should be fine.
Dan Skelton fields TORMUND GIANTSBANE in here on the back of a Carlisle novice hurdle win 33 days ago. On the horse, he said: “He’s a nice horse, a big horse, I think the track will really suit him as it’s not dissimilar to Carlisle – big, galloping, right-handed with a stiff uphill finish. When he won, I just thought this was the obvious race for him.
“I don’t really have any negatives, but he’ll need to take a step forward and step up as it’s a bigger race.”
He’s clearly unexposed, and that has to be a positive. On the eye test of his Carlisle win, he comes out favourably. He travelled sweetly from the rear of the field, though a few of his jumps could have been better. One wonders whether he will have the tactical speed for NO DRAMA THIS END, though conditions should suit.
THE BLUE ROOM won a maiden hurdle at Chepstow 30 days ago, and he does have some form to relate to. He was beaten in an Aintree bumper by DALSTON LAD (same connections of TORMUND GIANTSBANE), and he’s been fairly beaten three times since.
Stepping up in trip will be interesting, but he did his best work late lto. The second, DOUBLE MEASURE, caught the eye, but he was beaten in Grade 2 company at Haydock on his next start.
CRACKERJACQUE deserves his chance in here based on his facile Fontwell win, but at the same time, that was just a Fontwell win. This will be much deeper. Honeyball loves to test his nice novices in good novice races to see if they are either good enough or worth handicapping this season. We wonder if it’s the latter, though he has won on heavy before.
TOP JIMMY completes the field, and again, he won nicely last time out, and that was under a penalty. This race really isn’t a bad one. He was ridden like a smart one at Uttoxeter, and he really found for Sam Twiston-Davies’ urgings after the third-last. From the family of the useful CHAMPAGNE GOLD.
Verdict: NO DRAMA THIS END should be one for the perms.
14.20 3M GRADE 2 ESHER NOVICES’ CHASE
Again, this is a small field, like the Winter Novices’ Hurdle, but it’s a fascinating race.
The one horse the market can’t get enough of is LAURENS BAY, as he has come in from 4/1 to 11/4. There’s good reason to like him, as he (somehow) won the EBF Final at Sandown last season, and he has dotted up over fences on his chasing debut.
For a horse rated just 135, he is maybe getting to the stage of ‘too short’, but he is still just six, and he is unexposed. Yard is going well.
DOYEN QUEST was as short as 11/8 at one stage, but he has taken a walk in the market. Why?
One thing could be the ground, but the chase course is only good to soft, soft in places, which is not that dissimilar to what he faced at Exeter when he looked great in the Future Stars Silver Bowl Novices’ Chase.
He has weight to give away here, but he had to give 5lbs away to QUEBECOIS lto, and now he just has 3lbs extra on his back. If he gets into the same rhythm here as he did at Exeter, he could be quite hard to peg back.
Can QUEBECOIS reverse the form? The thing going for him is race fitness, of which he lacked at Exeter. So, in that respect, he can, but he now has to start answering questions about his overall ability. He has promised plenty for a while now, and yet he’s rated just 138 with two wins in lesser company under the belt.
SALVER completes the field, and he certainly doesn’t have form to prove. He is a solid 147-rated horse who ran a fine race over two miles at Exeter last time out behind LULAMBA. Three miles is certainly a new avenue that has yet to be explored, but he wasn’t for stopping when second to BLUEKING D’OROUX in the Grade 2 Select Hurdle last season, and he is a quality horse who will like any rain-softened ground. as always, the stable form of Gary & Josh Moore could be a small question mark, in fairness, but he’s not one who lacks ability.
Verdict: There aren’t many runners but this is a lovely race with many horses who need to deliver on their hyper, namely Moore’s best SALVER and Nicholls expensive QUEBECOIS. No bet for us but we’d not be surprised if SALVER finally showed up..
RISK ON
No bets as of yet, the winners all look way too short at the moment.
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