Equinties - Guineas Weekender

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It's the first Classic of the year today and the second comes shortly after tomorrow - both races look very good and competitive events which is beautiful to see in our sport at the top level.

Enjoy today, don't get carried away too heavily with the betting because this could be a special and historic day.

And before we get stuck into today's action, don't say we didn't warn you about INFINITE COSMOS being "different gravy" in yesterday's Fillies' Stakes at Newmarket. Wow.

She is now the clear 7/1 favourite for the Epsom Oaks next month and could be very special for Sir Michael Stoute.

Since the TOTE Fantasy inception, BGP Capital have always had the biggest league. They sent a dm yesterday to say if any of our readers have never played the Fantasy but want to try it, they can do FOR FREE using this link:

Let's dive in.

Big race previews

NEWMARKET

Group 3 Palace House Stakes 

The first Group race of the day is the Palace House Stakes at 4:00, a competitor sprint over five furlongs.

TWILIGHT CALLS heads the market at 10/3 having seen some sustained money both at decs stage and ante-post - he was second in the most recent King’s Stand, form that stacks up very well but he hasn’t been seen in the track for almost a year.

MANACCAN was the ante-post favourite until a few days ago and the case is obvious - he is proven in stakes company on both the AW and turf, however, with the recent Newmarket rain, soft ground would be a worry considering he was pulled out of a race at Chester for soft ground reasons last year.

Those two horses are at roughly 4/1 and the rest of the field is 11/1+ with EQUALITY under champion jockey William Buick leading the charge of the rest.

He steps out of handicap company for the first time having won off a mark of 94 two starts ago on good to soft ground and placed off a mark of 104 at the end of the season - handicap company into graded can be difficult so will be interesting how he performs.

VERDICT: TWILIGHT CALLS

Despite the break, the fav will be hard to beat here.

2000 Guineas

AUGUSTE RODIN is bred like a royal prince. His sire DEEP IMPACT won the Japanese Triple Crown and concluded his racing career with seven Grade 1 wins to his name. He is out of RHODODENDRON who herself won three Group 1 races and placed in four, more notably second-place finishes in the Guineas and Oaks. A dominant display in the Vertem Futurity trophy showed that he is cut from a different cloth. That was on heavy ground and against what seemed like tired horses.

FRANKEL has made a huge success in his second career and CHALDEAN could further enhance his reputation as a champion sire. A 550,000gns foal purchase by Juddmonte showed their intent in supporting their titan. Andrew Balding trained him to win the Acomb, the Champagne, and the Dewhurst Stakes last year. A minor blip came in the Greenham this year, but he had already beaten ISAAC SHELBY at Newmarket and was toying with him this year when riderless. He’s a May foal, so quite late in the year, AUGUSTE RODIN is a January foal for instance.

And what of the rest? This year is a fascinating renewal as we have sprinters like LITTLE BIG BEAR, SAKHEER, NOBLE STYLE and CHARYN taking on the types that would want a mile and beyond. AUGUSTE RODIN, HOLLOWAY BOY, ROYAL SCOTSMAN, CHALDEAN, SILVER KNOTT, INDESTRUCTIBLE and DUBAI MILE all want at least one mile this year, and in regards to the favourite probably further. We don’t have time to go through them all and discover what their strengths and weaknesses are. You can make a case for all the runners today.

Course form at Newmarket, especially in the Guineas, is very important. Most racing professionals say the Guineas is actually the last 2yo race as it comes so quickly in the calendar year. Form from last year is instructive and effectively, some practice over the track is sacred. Since 2015, of all the top three finishes, 16 had course form and eight had no course form. Three winners since 2015 had no course form and Aiden O’Brien had two of them; SAXON WARRIOR came through the Vertem Futurity Trophy route and GLENEAGLES and GALILEO GOLD came via the Prix Jean Luc Lagadere route. So, what about this year?

LITTLE BIG BEAR, SAKHEER and NOBLE STYLE have not run further than six furlongs and have not contested a race at Newmarket or encountered ‘the dip’. I know that the latter two have had racecourse gallops, apparently, NOBLE STYLE didn’t handle it very well.

Low draws at Newmarket seem to be an advantage, although minor. But slim margins are what’s going to win this race this year. Interestingly, low draws at Newmarket yesterday were particularly successful. The two-mile races were won from stall one and the two seven-furlong races were won from stalls one and two.

Historically low draws have had the most success in the Guineas itself. Looking ahead to 4:40 today, Chaldean, Silver Knott, Noble Style and Holloway Boy all have low draws.

VERDICT: CHALDEAN

Chaldean to win for Frankie. Auguste Rodin to come home second charging home but looks like he wants further than a mile. Royal Scotsman to pick up a podium spot.

GOODWOOD

Listed Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes

We head over to Goodwood for a Listed race that looks to hold some interest as Cheveley Park are represented by POTAPOVA for Sir Michael Stoute and Richard Kingscote.

The five-year-old beat GRANDE DAME two starts ago who would go on to finish third in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes so that form looks very sweet.

ZELLIE is another who brings forward Group 1 form, though her eight-length seventh to NASHWA in the Prix de Diane is probably just below par on the Sun Chariot.

She won the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac in 2021 on very soft so the rain-softened Good to Soft ground at Goodwood should play to her strengths.

The money horse in the contest is for the team of Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle as ROMAN MIST has been backed in from 10/1 to 8/1 despite her inconsistent efforts last year.

She beat POTAPOVA in April 2022, six starts ago but the form has been reversed twice since - being fresh is seemingly key to her.

VERDICT: POTAPOVA

Potapova to win and improve into a potential Group 1 filly. A typical Stoute improver.

NAAS

Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes

CAROLINE STREET got within two lengths of AUGUSTE RODIN last year as a 2yo. This is her first run back after a poor run on her last start. Her Gr2 2nd is looking more like a flash in the pan and she needs to bounce back. Big step up in trip or soft going isn’t certain to suit.

RED RIDING HOOD ran green lto and swerved all over the place; he needs to improve again as the form isn’t strong.

Just the one run for DIAMONDSAREFOREVER as a 2yo but it was a winning one, superbly bred as you would expect from the hotel she comes from. Her inexperience might leave her vulnerable to more experienced rivals.

LUMIERE ROCK won a Gr3 on her last start as a 2yo. Ran creditably but always held behind FONISKA lto and carries a penalty today.

KEEP IN TOUCH showed good form as a 2yo sandwiching a pair of fillies who contest the 1000 Guineas tomorrow in a listed race. Ran poorly lto so needs to bounce back.

VERDICT: FONISKA

Tried to make all lto but got tired in the mud and swamped late on. It was a confident ride from Foley and I think he expected to win. A fortnight isn’t a huge amount of time between runs but I like her to improve from the run. Dam (and Sire) did very well from 2 to 3 so I expect her to do the same.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

The race run for the roses. Literally. 554 red roses will be draped over the champion.

FORTE is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz. Great stall in 13 and he was last seen winning the Gr1 Florida Derby.

TAPIT TRICE is another Todd Pletcher runner. By champion sire Tapit. Comes here via the Gr1 Blue Grass Stakes and was brought for $1.3 million at Auction.

KINGSBARNS also trained by Pletcher. He’s by Coolmore’s Uncle Mo and won the Gr2 Louisiana Derby.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE won the Gr1 Arkansas Derby and was a $70,000 yearling purchase. Trained by Brad Cox.

DERMA SOTOGAKE won the UAE Derby for his Japanese connections. Ridden by Christophe Lemaire, trained by Otonashi and is by Mind Your Biscuits. Speed and stamina on his side.

MAGE was second to Forte last time out in the Florida Derby. His sire Good Magic was second in the Derby and with a cleaner race could figure for Javier Castellano.

VERDICK: MAGE 

Mage to win. Angel Of Empire and Forte to place.

SUNDAY: Group 1 1000 Guineas

TAHIYRA - by Siyouni, a half-sister to 3x Gr1 winner Tarnawa (best over 1m2f/4f). Won the Gr1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (7f) going away on her second start beating Meditate by over 2lengths. Trainer doesn’t bring them over for a day out. Big player

MEDITATE - by No Nay Never, won 5 o/o 7 races as a juvenile culminating in the Breeders Cup Juv Fillies Turf. Beaten by the aforementioned Tahiyra and Lezoo. Got the mile around a bend at Keeneland, different kettle of fish getting the mile up HQ’s hill.

MAMMAS GIRL - by Havana Grey, whose best trip was 5f (only raced once over further in a 16 race career) but this filly saw the 7f out very well on her seasonal debut in her trial. A question mark still remains if she can sustain that for another furlong but she hit the line very well. Course form a help.

REMARQUEE - Kingman filly, was impressive winning her trial where it was noted her coat hadn’t come through yet (jock dropped his whip). Trip won’t be a worry. It was a hard enough race on soft ground only 15 days ago and the wonder is if that race left a mark.

DREAM OF LOVE - Shamardal filly o/o Gr1 winner Secret Gesture who is a full sister to Japan and Mogul. It’s an exceptional dam line. 3rd to Caernarfon as a 2yo and then second to Mawj in Meydan, but she would have won that if she was closer to the pace. Got a bit to find but she’s lightly raced and improving.

MAWJ - an Exceed and Excel half sister to Gr1 Breeders Cup Mile winner Modern Games. Lezoo beat her in the Gr1 Cheveley Park Stakes at the end of her 2yo career but she was good in Dubai this winter. Likeable filly who’ll be winning races but this might stretch her ability.

VERDICT: TAHIYRA

TAHIYRA looked awesome winning her Gr1 on only her second start beating Meditate. Bred to improve with age. I trust the Weld team will have her ready, big Dermot wouldn’t bring her over if he didn’t think she was up to it.

One with a better stall (low) is Dream of Love, I think there is more to come from this filly, very lightly raced, Buick in the saddle. She’s a filly who will have done well for another winter on her back. The whole family which is exceptional improves a stone from 2 to 3 years old.

Risk on

4:00 Newmarket - Twilight Calls

Ryan Moore in stall 3 for Henry Candy and Cheveley Park Stud. Moore was on him last time out at Ascot when he ran second to Nature Strip in the Gr1 Kings Stand. He has been off for 326 days but has previously won off a break.

3:55 Naas - Foniska

The fave looks like a good two-year-old but hasn’t quite improved. Aiden has reached for blinkers in the second fave. Foniska is a Galileo filly who is going to get better and better.

17:50 Newmarket - Yacowlef

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades but there will be times when you have a string of losses - could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.