Equinties - Guineas week

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Gm Equinauts

It's hard to psyche one's self up for a big bet after a few days without winners. When both bank and ego are down, doubt sets in, not just of the horses ability, but your own judgement. You start questioning if you know what you're doing at all.

That's the chimp. Shut it up and stick to the process.

We couldn't put PROPHETS DREAM up as a max bet yesterday due to field size, that is genuinely the only reason. A couple of disgruntled people post-race complained as to why it wasn't labelled as the max given the way it bolted in, but had Bishop rode him differently he might have got caught in traffic and the chimps would be trolling @equinties. Give us some slack, we did say STRONG!

If you're angry at not max'ing it, manage the chimp and look forward to the pending bets with us.

And if it makes you feel better, some people didn't even get on.

I mean, I don't think we could more clear.

Before we go any further, play the TOTE Fantasy, it helps to cage the emotional chimp shouting at you to BET MORE.

Now, let’s dive in.

Headline round up 

Guineas shake-ups

Five-day confirmations for the first Classic of the season occurred yesterday and there were a few shocks dropped by connections.

The first of which came from Ireland as ante-post favourite for the 1000 Guineas, TAHIYRA, is set to turn up to the Newmarket contest having been heavily rumoured to be heading to the Irish equivalent instead.

Trainer Dermot Weld is “happy to take her chance on Sunday” and the legendary operator has highlighted the fact he has won the Irish 1000 Guineas five times but is yet to take the Newmarket version.

The next of the breaking news came from the colts as SLIPOFTHEPEN, trained by John and Thady Gosden, will miss the 2000 Guineas which is set to be run on the same day of the Coronation.

He looks like he could take in the French equivalent according to the racing manager of The King and Queen Consort, John Warren.

Bye Bye Jumps (for two days)

We agree with Carl here fyi. GIVE RACING A BREAK.

Anyway, Saturday saw the National Hunt season come to a close and Sandown was host to some history-making events including the record breaking haul of prize money for Paul Nicholls.

The headline act was KITTY’S LIGHT in the Bet365 Gold Cup for Christian Williams.

With Christian Williams’ daughter, Betsy, in all of our thoughts around the race, the seven-year-old completed an incredible Eider-Scottish Grand National-Whitbread treble on Saturday.

Sandown's feature race was an early closing race just seven days after Ayr meaning KITTYS LIGHT was able to run off the same mark as his win last weekend and he looked as fresh as a daisy considering he had just that week run a marathon trip!

This is what horse racing does. On race can live in the mind forever and I'm sure it's this one that will provide fond memories amidst the troubling times for Christian and his family.

We are all with Christian, his family, and Betsy.

Hendo celebration for JONBON

In what was a very un-Nicky Henderson move, the novice JONBON was entered, declared, and won the open company Grade 1 Celebration Chase on Saturday.

The JP McManus seven-year-old beat CAPTAIN GUINNESS in a grinding effort off the pace to justify the big money moved onto him late in the day to go off an SP of 8/13.

Where next? Well, with the comments made pre-Aintree about a step up in trip and analysing the manner of how he won on Saturday, you would maybe lean towards the Ryanair, especially with the fact EL FABIOLO is odds-on to head down the Champion Chase route.

Big race preview

16.10 Nottinghamshire Oaks Stakes 

A host of Stakes fillies in here, this should be a good race.

GOLDEN LYRA heads the market, she has a 3lbs penalty for her listed win in France at the back end of last year (we backed).

CRYSTAL CAPRICE won a class 2 last year and was Listed placed, Stoutey is on fire at the moment with a 42% sr.

MISTY DANCER has come up through the handicaps, winning in class 4 company. By DUBAWI, she should continue to improve.

LIFE OF DREAMS is out of ENDLESS TIMES who won the Lancashire Oaks as a 4yo. A Group 3 second to EMILYUPJOHN reads well and LIFE OF DREAMS was also placed in Group company in France.

Our view: LIFE OF DREAMS is probably the each way play with a recent run providing a fitness edge. GOLDEN LYRA is feared most as the market suggests but she does have a penalty and runs for the first time this year.

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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

14.10 Nottingham

SNAFIYA by BLUE POINT and bought for 80,000gns. Her sister won first time out in Ireland for Ger Lyons. Her mother is by ARCANO who is the broodmare sire of SUPREMACY, DRAGON SYMBOL and this years 2000 Guineas contender SAKHEER.

DEFYING ORDERS was a €48,000 yearling by first season sire SOLDIERS CALL. His dam was a 5f 2yo winner and she has produced ADENODE who won a Listed race as a 2yo.

TREASURE STORM is by EXPERT EYE and is from the AMO team. Brought for €145,000, he was fourth on debut. Her dam is a sister to Gr1 winner SIGNS OF BLESSING. Gorgeous family background.

15.30 Yarmouth

WILD SIDE is by KODIAC out of an OASIS DREAM mare. The 7f at Yarmouth shouldn’t be an issue for her. From the family of King George VI & QE II winner and 2000 Guineas winner GOLAN and TARTAN BEARER who was second in the Derby. Leading player.

TAJALAT, a newcomer for Varian, is homebred by SHOWCASING. The HALLING dam is a half sister to dual Gr1 winner SAJJHAA. Stable first string on jockey bookings.

LITTLE HUG - this daughter of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT made a promising debut last year, she should on pedigree improve from 2-3years old as her dam is a full sister to SWORD FIGHTER who was seen best winning the Curragh Cup over 1m6f.

HAKUNA BABE is a daughter of ROARING LION o/o PURR ALONG (by MOUNT NELSON) who was a good race mare winning two Gr3s and placed in two Gr2s. The legendary MILL REEF is a direct descendant sitting in this filly’s 5th Dam. The pedigree suggests she may need further than 7f in time.

Risk on

14.40 TEMPERED SOUL

Supposed to just win for Boughey's but it's quite short. Use 11/10 to lever another bet if 100% return isn't enough for you.

15.10 MEXICALI ROSE

Following the money on this filly. 10/3 into 7/4 is a good move in the market and she's got the pedigree and form to back the confidence up. Full bet or half and lever with Bougheys to 5's.

18.40 REMINDER

PEONY sets the standard in this race but like a typical filly, she's hit and miss so we're taking her on with a half bet ew on the Kings horse. Hayley Headturner rode work on her last week and was impressed with her so she has ability - Hayley's a good jockey. Only a small bet as Balding's typically need a run but it would be a shame to let this go in without risk on, especially on the week of the Kings coronation no less! Half bet.

Played a stupid lunch money bet on the 30/1 treble too.

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: