Gm, Equinauts

Day 2 of the Craven meeting and there are some very, very nice horses out today but we wish we were there.

At this sort of meeting, so early in the season, it pays to see the horses in the flesh. We’ve had a very wet and miserable winter, are there any horses holding on to their winter coats?

We’re going to play a couple of forecasts today, make sure you always play the on the TOTE, the pay-outs are bigger.

There’s a £70k minimum pot for the placepot too.

Get an account here: Tote | Offers

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

🏆THE GUINEAS GALLOP

We said yesterday Aidan O’Brien might read the newsletter… but Godolphin definitely took it personally.

Because the boys in blue have just blown the GUINEAS market wide open.

TALK OF NEW YORK went to Newmarket and did exactly what he was supposed to do. A smooth, professional win over 7f has seen him firm right up in the betting, with bookmakers cutting him into around the 5/1–6/1 range depending on who you ask.

Not explosive, not flashy, just… convincing. And that’s sometimes worse for the rest!

Although nearly all expected him to win and win well, the market was a little uneasy and you could have backed him very, very close to even money before the off.

We didn’t make the most of that.

TALK OF NEW YORK wasn’t the only market mover for Godolphin though as DISTANT STORM and KINGS TRAIL were both squeezed after just a bit of public work!

The Rowley Mile was opened up to provide the main market protagonists a practice run and with Buick sitting aboard DISTANT STORM. Charlie only stated he was a horse best fresh and will go straight to the Guineas, no more, but even that was enough to shove the horse in a couple of points.

At the time of writing, we’ve just had a message telling us that TALK OF NEW YORK will NOT go to the Guineas. He’s off to France instead. Appleby’s Guineas hopes are KINGS TRAIL and DISTANT STORM, so if you fancy them, back them now as they will surely shorten when TALK OF NEW YORK is taken out.

If there was any doubt about who sits at the top of the Guineas tree… it didn’t last long.

Because BOW ECHO followed minutes after the Godolphin pair and put on a bit of a show for those in attendance.

Working over 6 furlongs, he travelled powerfully before quickening clear—properly quickening—up the rising ground, putting his lead horses to bed effortlessly.

Trainer George Boughey didn’t hold back either, saying they haven’t had a horse with a turn of foot like him. That tells you everything. This is a yard that knows a good one—and they’re basically telling you this is the one. And that’s what’s really rattled the market, slamming him into 5/2 with some firms.

We imagine the market will look very different this time Sunday morning once big ALBERT has run at Newbury.

🌱WALKING THE COURSE

After gallops at Sevenbarrows, Hendo is going to set off for Newbury to walk the course and make sure it’s alright for his big star CONSTITUTION HILL.

Confirmations are tomorrow morning but Nicky has aired some doubt over their participation hence the reason for the short journey from Lambourn to Newbury.

Clerk of the course George Hill says he is ‘entirely happy’ with the course having watered earlier in the week and putting some ease in the ground but predicted it will naturally go back to quick by Saturday.

And that’s where the issue lies.

Decent summer ground for flat horses is effectively concrete for CONSTITUTION HILL and might prove dangerous for him, as well as not being optimal for his action.

We imagine Newbury are desperate to get the big lad there and draw in a bumper crowd, so it will be interesting to see if Hill chucks anymore down!

⭕THE NELL GWYN

We gambled this race with MAMMAS GIRL once. Boy that was a day. Today, 12 girls go to post and a horse we know very well has just been knocked into fave.

AMERICA QUEEN was the butt of all our meme’s last year as our huge ante-post bet ROYAL FIXATION smashed her to bits in the Lowther:

There is no ROYAL FIXATION to bump into today and Hughes was adament last year she was a certified rocket. He couldn’t believe she got beat! We knew she would though, sorry Hughsie!

After the Lowther, she ran a huge race in Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes when both her and the re-opposing ROYAL FIXATION seemingly ran out of track. She gets a step up in trip today to 6f which looks quite a good move.

So, who has she got to beat. Well the Godolphin horse ACT OF KINDNESS is co-fave but her pedigree suggests she might just need a further - her half sister YLANG YLANG won the Fillies Mile and went off fave for the Oaks!

The one we think who could be interesting is the most unexposed in the field and that is the £650k mega-buy ASMERALDA. By gun sire NIGHT OF THUNDER, she has a big US dirt pedigree dam side and must have looked a picture in the ring because she was an awful lot of money.

MUBASIMAH is nice for Shaggas too. By the GOAT FRANKEL, out of a Listed winner, she could be anything, especially with that form behind Burrows’.

We’ll side with the AMERICA QUEEN as her form is the clear form to beat!

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