Equinties - Guineas chat

Gm Equinauts

A brilliant days punting yesterday for those who follow our X account @equinties,

Financial advice: don’t miss us in the slop.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

FLIP FLOP

Don’t you just love this game?

One day, comments from connections suggest that they are going to send two horses to the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, and a mere two days later, that decision has been completely changed. Brilliant.

We are, of course, talking about MORE THUNDER and NEVER SO BRAVE, Saeed Suhail’s progressive four-year-olds who were all set for Glorious Goodwood on Tuesday.

Fast forward to Thursday afternoon, and that is now off the cards, with the owner looking to split them both up. Philip Robinson, racing manager to owner Saeed Suhail, said: "I'm pretty sure Never So Brave will be going for the City of York Stakes over seven furlongs.

"He proved he could get a mile at Ascot but it's great the York race is now Group 1 level, so we thought why not? After winning the Summer Mile the owner thinks he should have a go at the top level now.

"We originally considered them both for the Lennox, but More Thunder is almost definitely going to the Hungerford now.

"There's no particular reason, the owner just felt that was the better race for More Thunder. He wanted to give him time between races and he didn't want to rush him back. As he was stepping him up into Group racing, he felt that extra period before the Hungerford would be very beneficial.

"At the moment that’s the target, and it'll be interesting to see how he fares in Group company."

We don’t have much to add about either horse, as we said plenty earlier in the week. All we will say is that this could be a great spot from connections. Let us explain.

Sending MORE THUNDER to the Hungerford Stakes is fine. It’s another race over seven furlongs, and it will arguably be easier than the Lennox. It’s a pretty neutral decision. As for NEVER SO BRAVE going to the Group 1 City Of York Stakes, while it may seem a step too far on paper, a quick look at the early entries for the race is quite revealing. Who could he potentially face at York? ROSALLION is in the Sussex, as is DOCKLANDS, LAZZAT is going to the Maurice de Gheest, and INISHERIN is also in contention for the Maurice de Gheest as well as the City Of York.

Maybe NOTABLE SPEECH turns up, but he wasn’t exactly brilliant in the July Cup. The one to properly worry about is COSMIC YEAR, but you can’t just be scared of one horse when pitching up to these Group 1 contests.

If NEVER SO BRAVE is going to win a Group 1 this year, the City Of York is his best chance to do so because there is a severe lack in potential opponents at this stage. Great spot, connections.

GUINEAS CHAT

PUBLISH made a name for himself at Sandown earlier this month. Did he win? No. Was he an eye-catcher? Yes. Did Colin Keane give him a pretty stinky ride? Yes.
He finished second on his first-ever run, and he stayed on through the line having been refused a passage through horses at multiple stages during the race. If he wasn’t already on the radar before this month, he certainly was after his debut run, and he does have Mr Keane to thank for that.

Because of this, he came into his second career start with plenty of chat hanging over his head and a point to prove (if horses can experience such a feeling).

Fast-forward to the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s performance, and there were certainly plenty of opinions about his maiden career success. He went off 4/7, so expectations were high, but did the performance quite match the pre-race chat? That’s up for debate.

In fairness, the race was pretty decent, and the front two pulled well-clear of the third. When this happens in a novice or maiden, it’s usually a pretty good sign, but was it one of the best maidens of all time? No.

Furthermore, the second, CATULLUS, was behind DISTANT STORM and CONSTITUTION RIVER on debut at Newmarket earlier this month.
Obviously, the form of that Newmarket race hasn’t yet been franked, but CONSTITUTION RIVER is by WOOTTON BASSETT out of a full-sister to the two-time Group 1 winner WONDERFUL TONIGHT, and Godolphin’s winner, DISTANT STROM, is a NIGHT OF THUNDER half to the Group 3 winner BEAUTIFUL MORNING. Great pages.

So, we can assume that the bare form of yesterday’s seven-furlong maiden stakes is solid on initial viewing.

But, and this is a ‘but’ that is the size of Jupiter, how does a maiden win like that equate to being a potential 2000 Guineas winner next season?

It’s clearly a big stretch, but this is a question that has to be asked when a horse is chucked in as the 16/1 joint third favourite for the opening Classic of the 2026 UK Flat season.

On yesterday’s effort, he will need to show a few more gears. He clearly needs to improve, but that almost goes without saying considering his dam, NAY LADY NAY, never raced as a juvenile. It’s the tactical speed that was potentially lacking a little bit, and that would be the worry in a race like the 2000 Guineas next year. His engine, however, was rather impressive. It takes a good horse to pick the race up from the front at Sandown and grind out the win.

Of course, there is plenty of water to go under the bridge until the Guineas, and he does look like a rather big juvenile, so he has some growing to do.

Post-race, Thady Gosden played a pretty straight bat and didn’t nominate any targets for him, but what did you think? Guineas winner next year, or is the chat a little too much right now?

14.25 LISTED PAT EDDERY STAKES

ROSALLION, NAVAL CROWN, CHINDIT, CACHET, and MUHAARAR.
That’s just a small list of winners and placed horses that the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes has produced since its inauguration in 2006.

For a Listed contest, it has a decent role of honour, so will there be any horses to add to that list from this year’s renewal?

Let’s start with RECIPROCATED, owned by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum, the winning owner in 2023 with ROSALLION. He was sent off 14/1 on debut at Nottingham, which is interesting, and the second, SILENT APPLAUSE, has won a Nottingham novice since.

He hung to his right when winning an easy Carlisle novice lto. It’s hard to work out his debut because the Godolphin horse in second didn’t look like the easiest in the world. He has drifted slightly in the market.

Speaking of big-priced debut winners, A BIT OF SPIRIT nutted a Godolphin hot-pot at 28/1 last month.

MCMURRAY, the sixth at Newbury, got much closer to A BIT OF SPIRIT at Salisbury, but he still won nicely. He has the chance to be PALACE PIER’s first Stakes winner.
TIME TO TURN was the Godolphin horse nutted by A BIT OF SPIRIT at Newbury, and he has bolted up at very short odds at Wolves since.

Interestingly, William Buick chose him on debut over MAXIMISED, the subsequent Woodcote winner (and July Stakes fifth). He was a short fav that day as well with MAXIMISED at 11/2. If they thought he was better back in May, that is a nice vote of confidence in this context.

Hugo Palmer loves Chester, so it was obvious that TRICKY TEL was going to go there in May, and he looked like a nice winner lto considering how the race shaped for him from stall seven.

He was going to go to the Coventry, but he injured his foot on the way to Ascot, so that’s why he has been away for a little bit of time. Hugo Palmer thinks he is a fairly solid horse, so something like Ascot over seven furlongs could eek out more improvement. Pretty unexposed coming onto a more conventional track. This will be CAPE ASHIZURI’s second run of his career – the only horse doing this today – so he will need to handle this step up in quality with his relative lack of experience.

The yard knows the pedigree well, as he is a half-brother to their Coventry/Morny winner THE WOW SIGNAL, and he will learn plenty from what he did lto. He had to work to pass horses off the bridle, which is always good for experience. A step-up in trip should work.

ITALICA is potentially one of the more exposed horses having lost his first two races, though he has won on his two most recent outings.

On his second start, he was beaten by the 92-rated ALI SHUFFLE and 79-rated EXCLAMATION, the latter of which bolted up at Donny on Wednesday. He has his chance, but a career-best is required.

SIRIUS A completes the field, and he has a nice form line with HUMIDITY, the Chesham winner, based on his debut run. James Horton sent him over to France for a Listed race in Deauville earlier this month, so he must think he is some sort of Stakes performer, and he wasn’t disgraced by finishing second.

He is another horse by PALACE PIER, and he comes from a pretty attractive family that includes HIGHEST GROUND (2020 Dante runner-up). He may be the biggest-priced runner here, but he shouldn’t be left behind by this field.

Verdict: There wad a huge message for the Godolphin horse at Newbury when he was beat. He then got redemption. We’re not taking the boys in blue on.

STATS OF THE DAY

Charlie Appleby is 4 from 7 in the 14.25 and runs TIME TO TURN today.

One more stat might be for AMBASSADOR who has won the last two renewals of the 15.12, the only trouble is he’s a bit out of form… plot?

RISK ON

After a huge day yesterday with a 13/8 and 17/1 winner across multiple horses, today we’re playing one We’re following the ROYAL FIXATION form line:

14.15 MANDARIN SPIRIT

Kevin Ryan was a shocked this girl got beat by Walker lto. ROYAL FIXATION is a weapon of mass destruction. This is the form line to bet. If this loses, it might cause a drift on RF which we’ll happily take.