Equinties - Group 1 hopes

Gm Equinauts

There were some funny old results this weekend, we’re glad we stayed out of a lot of those betting battles but there is one trainer waking up morning with a spring in his step having landed his first ever Group 1 as a trainer at 66/1.

And no one’s going to tell Richard Hughes it was the weakest July Cup in a decade!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

THE SPRINTERS

It’s fair to say that the current state of the British sprinting scene isn’t amazing.
Let’s look at the facts.

NOTABLE SPEECH, a DUBAWI Classic-winning miler, was supplemented for the race and instantly became favourite, and he was backed further on the day. At Royal Ascot, AMERICAN AFFAIR, a handicapper last season, won the King Charles III Stakes, and the foreign raiders of LAZZAT and SANTONO REVE fought out the finish in the QEII Jubilee Stakes.

Furthermore, even when punters try to follow a form line like the Jubilee Stakes with FLORA OF BERMUDA in the July Cup, she goes and finishes last of 14.
How do we even have a chance?!

The state of the current sprinting scene was perfectly summed up on Saturday in the July Cup, as NO HALF MEASURES won at 66/1. She was followed home by BIG MOJO (12/1), RUN TO FREEDOM (40/1), and BELIEVING (9/1). That’s a pretty wide-open first four home.

NO HALF MEASURES is by no means a bad horse. With the benefit of hindsight, she probably wasn’t fully exposed coming into this weekend, having won a Listed and Group 3 as a three-year-old before running a fine race in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye.

But still, a big career-best was needed, and there was clearly a feeling that she was up against it, as there wasn’t a big queue of jockeys waiting to get the leg up. Two WhatsApp messages from Richard Hughes were all that was needed for Neil Callan to get the ride!

Callan had only ridden for Hughes nine times previously. Mental! But she is the winner of the 2025 July Cup, and it’s fair to say that the Group 1 contests later this season (Sprint Cup & British Champion Sprint Stakes) will remain wide-open betting heats, unless a horse like LAZZAT comes back over to these shores.

The fact that RUN TO FREEDOM has finished third in the July Cup two years after finishing second in the race probably shows that the sprinting division hasn’t progressed much in that time.

One can imagine it will be the aforementioned Sprint Cup and Champions Sprint will be next for NO HALF MEASURES, and considering she’s won on heavy before, she could even be a little bit better on softer ground.

Anyway, what else can we learn from the July Cup? Well, BIG MOJO was right back to his best at Newmarket on Saturday. He was given a bit of a weak ride by Hollie Doyle at Royal Ascot, and he didn’t get the easiest route through.

He’s only had four runs this season, winning a Group 3, finishing fourth in a Group 2, and placing in a Group 1. That’s a very good record, and he obviously finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last season.

He’s 10/1 for the King George Qatar Stakes where he could take on ASFOORA, BIG EVS’ nemesis last season. He has plenty of boot, but he can also stay six furlongs. A trip to Glorious Goodwood could be rather exciting, though the Sprint Cup at Haydock would also have to be on the radar.

Finally, INISHERIN was a late non-runner as the racecourse vets withdrew the horse due to him losing a shoe. Kevin Ryan, his trainer, didn’t seem overly happy at the time, but he says he has “addressed that” and “it’s over and done with”.

Where next? A step up to seven furlongs could be on the cards, which would be rather fun, though six furlongs in France is also an option.
Ryan said: "He’s in the Maurice de Gheest and he’s in the new Group 1 at York over seven furlongs, the City of York. I haven’t discussed it with Sheikh Mohammed Obaid yet; we’ll have a chat in a week’s time and decide which one we go for nearer the time.
"He’s perfect, 100 per cent and fresh as paint this morning."

GROUP 1 HOPES

The Group 2 Summer Mile was a fascinating race to watch on Saturday. Pre-race, HAATEM was the big money horse, as having been as big as 9/4 the night before, he shot into an SP of 11/10. Interestingly, NEVER SO BRAVE, who had it all to prove in Group company, didn’t take that much of a walk in the market even when HAATEM came for some support. This indicates what connections thought of his chances going into the race.

And then, there was the race itself. POINT LYNAS, a solid horse in his own right, bucked out from the front and created a huge lead. As he turned for home, he must have been 10 lengths clear, and when Jamie Spencer asked him to go again, he did respond. Honestly, it looked for all the world that Spencer had stolen it, but then it all became clear that POINT LYNAS was in a bit of trouble with a furlong to go.

From there, NEVER SO BRAVE and HAATEM came into contention, and ultimately, the better horse won, as NEVER SO BRAVE got himself ahead of POINT LYNAS. With HAATEM’s established form in the book, and with just how messy the race was, this piece of form does look pretty nice on first viewing.

Furthermore, the post-race comments from connections regarding NEVER SO BRAVE were quite bullish, and they have Group 1 prospects going forward. Andrew Balding said: "He's busy and impatient but a very good horse. We were keen to try him at a mile but I think he's very versatile and could be effective anywhere between six furlongs and a mile. I'm thrilled with his progression.

“The Lennox at Goodwood and the City Of York are both options but I wish I'd put him in the Sussex Stakes. We'll discuss the options with his owner but he's versatile and he's a gelding, so we can go wherever. If he gets beat it doesn't matter – we can chase the prize-money."

Balding isn’t one to get overly excited about a horse in public, but the fact that he wishes he were in the Sussex says enough. It’s quite remarkable that he rocked up to Ascot off 105! We’ve commented previously about how well handicapped some of the ex-Stoute horses are and this was most evident Saturday. NEVER SO BRAVE, MORE THUNDER and FOX LEGACY won the big handicaps in the Summer Mile, the Bunbury Cup and John Smith’s Cup - all ex-Stoute! Hilarious.

It’s onwards and upwards for those horses.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

MISS NIGHTFALL - SATURDAY 14.12 NEWMARKET

She was many people’s eye-catcher at Royal Ascot, and she was a bit unlucky again at Newmarket on the weekend, so it’s worth highlighting MISS NIGHTFALL here. This probably wasn’t Saffie Osborne’s finest hour, because she rode the horse much differently to her usual tactics.

For much of her career, MISS NIGHTFALL has been held up and produced with a late run, which is ultimately why she’s been so eye-catching before.
But, on Saturday, she was right on the pace, and she hit the front quite soon under Osborne. For a few strides, it looked like she could win it, but a few late closers collared her when she started to wander off to the left.
With a more conservative ride, she can win races this season, and we’re sure she’s still well-handicapped.

BILLYJOH - SATURDAY 14.50 NEWMARKET

There were plenty of eyes on the Bunbury Cup on Saturday, and that’s mainly because every punter under the sun backed MORE THUNDER. He got punters out of trouble and the front two (him and AALTO) will have good seasons.

But what about BILLYJOH, the third? Well, his run in the Bunbury Cup showed him back to his true best having finished 16th of 27 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes.
Last season, he finished second and third in two different Glorious Goodwood handicaps off a mark of 95, notably the Stewards’ Cup won by GET IT.

Having run off a mark of 94 on Saturday, he’s likely to get a pound from the handicapper, and he holds two entries for handicaps at Goodwood. We could see him heading back there, and as he’s already shown his effectiveness around the track, he’s likely to go well. He stayed on through the line on Saturday. It was a very promising run.

STATS OF THE DAY

Only one standout stat today:

CENTARA goes for Nicholls in the 14.50 and ridden by Jay Tidball. They’re 5 from 7 running at a hot 71% sr this year together at course.

RISK ON

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