Equinties - the Grand National

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Gm Equinauts

The biggest day in the jumps calendar is here and we're heading into it on a bull run.

Millions of ordinary people, who don't care for the sport on any other day, will be joining the likes of you Equinauts, racings fans and betting degen's to watch a load of tiny humans ride big furry animals round a field.

And what a spectacle it is.

Who tf would want to cancel it!?

Well done to Kevin Blake for his recent delivery of horse racings defense, but one has to ask where the BHA have been? Their silence is deafening and inaction laughable.

Now, time for the big event. Remember, you don't HAVE to do your bollocks just because its a Saturday and you've had a beer. Play the the TOTE's Fantasy game instead.

Play the TOTE Fantasy. Find out league using code: QHZ36G.

Let's dive tf in.

Grand National Day

Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase

This looks to be a walkover for JONBON in what is a Grade 1 in only name – it’s more of a Listed race in behind the Arkle second.

On ratings, form, and conditions, JONBON should win, but that is why he is 1/3 – we have yet to have a true favorite blowout at Aintree yet though ABSOLUTE NOTIONS and FOUND A FIFTY did a good job of it yesterday – could he be the ultimate blowout?

The next-best in the market is NOTLONGTILLMAY after his 40/1 second to STAGE STAR in the Turners lto.

He looked good lto having been unbeaten on his four previous starts, however, his two-mile form consists of a one-length win over MORIKO DE VASSY in November and a novice hurdle loss at Haydock in December 2021 – that’s not vintage form.

There was a gamble for MARVEL DE CERISY in the Plate lto but his ninth in the race having not travelled well was disappointing. That said, the last time he ran over two miles he fell at the second last behind the subsequent Mares’ Chase winner, IMPERVIOUS, so a return to this trip could benefit his chances.

Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle

There are two big money horses in this race – DARK RAVEN, the now 7/2 favourite, and LETSBECLEARABOUTIT, a horse who is 9/1 having been 25/1.

Starting with the former, he comes from the now extremely hot Supreme Hurdle having seen STRONG LEADER and INTHEPOCKET frank the form yesterday and DARK RAVEN has always looked like a step up in trip would suit the best – it’s one of the few Willie Mullins runners this week and he has to be taken seriously.

And the with the latter, he is a good horse who has maybe just found three miles a bit difficult in recent times – he has plenty of toe over 2m and 2m4f so the drop back in trip on soft ground should suit very well.

HERMES ALLEN was highlighted as the number one Paul Nicholls chance at last month’s Cheltenham Festival, however, having been well-backed in the Ballymore, he was soundly beaten.

A step up to three miles has been reached for by connections, something that came earlier than maybe expected, but ultimately he is a very good horse for the moment and should be back to his best.

Do we have any MARINE NATIONALE fans reading today? Well, if you are a forgiving person, IRISH POINT was second to the Supreme winner over two miles in November on soft ground, and although his last two starts could have been better, he still looks to be a nice type.

Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle

The final Grade 1 of the day is the Liverpool Hurdle, won last year by SIRE DU BERLAIS, a subsequent Stayers’ Hurdle winner.

The big money move in the race has been for HOME BY THE LEE for Joseph O’Brien – he is a Grade 1 winner this season and beat BOB OLINGER (who?) at the start of the season but was only fifth in the Stayers’. If he returns, does his form stand up?

MARIE’S ROCK was disappointing in the Mares’ Hurdle lto and is now finally stepping up to three miles having been teased for the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham – she is another who has questions about bouncing back.

The fresh horse in today’s contest is actually CHAMP having not run since Boxing Day when third to Emma Lavelle's yard hero, PAISLEY PARK. His record fresh is brilliant and could be a serious danger if on song. We know he's machine on a going day.

Grand National

The big one. And my god does Racing Twitter need to give their opinion on it.

How the market looking? Well, there have been some big moves, the standout being the squeeze on AIN’T THAT A SHAME 8's from 25's.

The Rachael Blackmore factor has taken its toll on the price but there is some good back class in his form having been second by a head to THE BIG DOG, a horse who re-opposes 17lb worse terms.

The long-time ante-post favourite for the race was CORACH RAMBLER who is now as big as 10/1 following his second Ultima win and are their questions about his chances?

He is a well-known hold-up horse, unproven stayer at 3m5f+, and had a fairly hard race at Cheltenham. It’ll be interesting to see how he goes.

NOBLE YEATS won the race last year and has improved 19lbs since having won a Many Clouds Chase and finished fourth in the Gold Cup. Earlier in the week his trainer said NOBLE YEATS is getting a little wise to toughness of racing and might be holding a little back. That's concerning given his weight today. Class horse though.

Unexposed of 166 is also GALVIN who has never ran in a handicap – the vibe from Elliott’s is that the National was always a plan and he has time to build himself up since the Cross Country, though the soft ground may cause his chances to go.

Want to know the horse who has had the most incredible prep for the National? BORN BY THE SEA was fifth to GABBYS CROSS at Galway in 2022 over 2m6f and has since ran twice over two miles behind ENERGUMENE and REBEL GOLD before a poor effort in the Plate lto – this is a first try at a marathon trip for a long time and if an interesting runner at 100/1.

Plenty of shewd judges fancy LONGHOUSE POET for the National and it seems like trainer Martin Brassil is hopeful of a big run from his nine-year-old.

If you fancy him, ROI MAGE was a length behind him lto when wrong at the weights by five pounds and there is now an 11lb swing in the weights in the favour of Patrick Griffin’s runner.

Good luck to all connections and we hope all your horses come home safe and sound.

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Bumper preview

Aintree

Gordons POUR LES FILLES has been pushed off fave by Mullins' BLIZZARD OF OZ but I'm not wholly enamored by the new favorites pedigree. He's also now quite exposed having run 4 times and won twice.

One I do like on pedigree is POUR LES FILLES. Love it actually and this is the pick despite Gordons saying 'he's not a bumper horse' after this last race. I know more about pedigrees the Gordon Elliott and I think he is.

Summary: tough race as market suggests, its 4's the field but POUR LES FILLES has the best ped for this race and should prove a good ew.

Risk on

Aintree Grand National Day 3 selections

13.45 JONBON

14.25 GOOD TIME JONNY

15.00 HERMES ALLEN

15.35 HOME BY THE LEE & CHAMP

16.15 ELDORADO ALLEN

17.15 DELTA WORK, GAILLARD DU MESNIL, CAPODANNO

18.20 POUR LES FILLES NAP

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback yesterday from people benefitting from our max bet staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: