Equinties - a Gr1 Sunday

Gm Equinauts

Super Sunday Preview 

The decision was made on Friday to suspend British racing on Saturday and instead create a nine-race card at Doncaster the day after.  

Because of that, there are 15, yes 15, Group races on one day between England, Ireland and France – WOW! There are 6 Gr1s… it’s like racing in Australia!!

Are we going to preview them all? Do you seriously think we have time to preview them all? You are absolutely right, we will – well, not all 10 as a three-runner Gr2 Champagne Stakes with a 5/6 Godolphin favourite strangely doesn’t excite us that much and we are sticking to purely Group 1s over in Ireland. 

Let’s begin.  

Headline roundup

1:35 – Gr2 Flying Childers Stakes 

We start our preview with a five-furlong race for the two-year-olds. 

Something that is uncertain at the time of writing is what the ground will be – currently, the official going is SOFT GROUND but with no rain forecast, we could easily see good to soft or even a description of good in the going description, but as we speak, we will highlight a few who may enjoy that little extra cut in the ground.  

One who could deal with the softer ground is Richard Hannon’s TRILLIUM, last month’s runaway Molecomb Stakes winner – she is by NO NAY NEVER whose progeny are versatile on any ground and out of the soft ground-winning mare MARSH HAWK and won lto in a very good time (56.68s (THE PLATINUM QUEEN on the same afternoon over course and distance in another race posted a time of 56.50s carrying 2lbs more)). If she can repeat that performance again, benefitting off a likely strong gallop to be set by THE PLATINUM QUEEN and the keen going CRISPY CAT, she could be the one to beat. She also stays 6f which will be to her advantage today.

Sharing the top of the market with her is THE PLATINUM QUEEN for Richard Fahey – she returns after a very promising second in the Gr1 Nunthorpe behind HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, who runs later.

Despite her young age and her obvious greenness lto, she battled well to show she is a tough filly, though you would have to question the form of the race and she was also in receipt of nearly 24lbs lto - back on level weights with four of her competitors today, will she continue her progression to hand Fahey his first victory in this race? We know she’s going to blaze a trail, it’s up to Irishman Oisin Orr to get his fractions right and leave the nos tank full for the final furlong to ensure the others don’t take advantage of her pace setting.

Away from the top two in the market, CRISPY CAT represents a lot of two-year-old form coming into today – he was a short-head second to BLACKBEARD in the Listed First Flier Stakes in May, third in the Norfolk Stakes behind THE RIDLER (form that has been boosted through THE ANTARCTIC, seventh that day, finishing third in the Gr1 Prix Morny last month), and he was fourth to ROYAL SCOTSMAN lto. 

First Flier Stakes:

The last two races mentioned were over six furlongs where he didn’t quite stay – back down to five today should see the best out of Michael O’Callaghan’s ARDAD colt.  

Our view: Very tough to split the two fillies but side with TRILLIUM. The course will suit her better than THE PLATINUM QUEEN and she is fresher.

2:45 - Gr2 Doncaster Cup 

The Group 2 Doncaster Cup finally gives TRUESHAN his best chance to win one of the big staying races of this year as Alan King’s six-year-old faces just the seven rivals in today’s £130,000 contest.  

This year’s Northumberland Plate successor and Goodwood Cup third, behind KYPRIOS and STRADIVARIUS that day, is the 1/3 favourite on his first start at Doncaster, with COLTRANE needing to find at least 11 pounds on official ratings in order to challenge.  

Northumberland Plate success:

BGP Grad COLTRANE represents Andrew Balding, the trainer who won this in 2020 with SPANISH MISSION, so he is in good hands for this challenge but this looks like a one-horse race for the slop king, TRUESHAN.  

Our view: TRUESHAN has no excuses today.

3:20 – Gr2 Park Stakes 

Following his easy victory in the Group 2 City Of York Stakes lto, Ralph Beckett’s KINROSS heads the market in today’s Gr2 Park Stakes over seven furlongs.  

Last year he won the Gr2 Lennox Stakes beating two subsequent Gr1 winners for Godolphin in CREATIVE FORCE and SPACE BLUES and this fella has enjoyed another fine season for his owner Marc Chan. It all started with a neck-third to POGO in the Gr3 John Of Gaunt Stakes. After a brief try at six furlongs for the Platinum Jubilee, two brilliant runs when second to Sandrine in the Lennox and a runaway winner lto have shown us why he is a force to be reckoned with going forward – connections have decided to get one more run into him before a tilt at the Gr1 British Champions Sprint, a race he was ninth in last year.

Just the six face up against Beckett’s KINGMAN gelding today with only one horse coming into the race off the back of a win – that horse is DOUBLE OR BUBBLE for Chris Wall, a trainer with a great record in this contest (one win and one place from four runners).  

Victory lto:

He got the better of MISTY GREY, who he reopposes, in the Gr3 Supreme Stakes 14 days ago – Wall has big targets for this EXCEED AND EXCEL mare (remember we talked about a potential trip to Japan for the Gr1 Sprinters Stakes in the newsletter a few weeks ago) and he’ll be hoping for a win to allow his mare to qualify for her oversees target, though the softer ground will be a worry.  

One of the interesting contenders in the lineup is Charlie Hills’ GARRUS, who is currently the 5/1 second favourite.  

He was a staying-on third to HIGHFIELD PRINCESS and MINZAAL lto in the Gr1 Prix Maurice de Gheest on his first start at six and a half furlongs – both have gone onto pick up Group 1 successes since, the latter broke the track record at Haydock in the Betfair Sprint Cup, which makes that piece of form red hot.  

Third in France:

He also doesn’t mind a little bit of give in the ground and being an ACCLAMATION out of QUEEN OF POWER, who was seventh in the 2014 Irish 1000 Guineas behind MARVELLOUS, he should be okay over seven furlongs today. 

Our view: KINROSS is the horse to beat in this but ground might be a question mark. The proper proper soft ground horse is AL SUHAIL but he was stuffed by the fave lto. Tough race.

3:55 Gr1 St Leger 

It’s time for the final British Classic of the season, although, this year’s renewal looks more like a Listed race at Lingfield than a £786,000 contest.  

Nevertheless, today sees NEW LONDON step up into Group 1 company for the very first time following his Group 3 success in the Gordon Stakes to beat DEAUVILLE LEGEND, a subsequent Group 2 winner at York, and HOO YA MAL, who reappears today.  

The form of the race has been franked at lower levels and he is the in-form horse, however, he holds a few worries for an odds-on shot. 

Firstly, he is untried at the distance. Yes, his dam is related to the 2011 St Leger winner MASKED MARVEL, but his sire, DUBAWI, has produced a small amount of 14f horses compared to the middle-distance offspring he has created, and all of NEW LONDON’s siblings are 1m horses – the step up to 1m6f is an uncertainty.  

Secondly, the one time he raced on soft ground he was pumped by CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD at Chester – yes, Chester is a difficult track for some, but a six-length loss is concerning.  

This might be enough for some to take him on at the prices, but where do you turn to?  

HASKOY is the twice-raced unbeaten filly that was supplemented for the contest by connections – she is a late bloomer for Ralph Beckett but then again, her dam, NATAVIA, only started racing as a three-year-old and won a Listed contest on her second start.  

Debut win:

ELDAR ELDAROV won from an impossible position at Royal Ascot in the Queen’s Vase over 1m6f so he is one by DUBAWI who definitely stays and he is out of a SEA THE STARS mare – the step back to 1m4f over in France didn’t work out lto and he didn’t look to be a fan of the good to soft ground, a potential worry for today. I also have my reservations about the form of his previous races going in to this, however, he is lightly raced.

RA success:

The ever-consistent HOO YA MAL returns for potentially his final assignment before the Melbourne Cup – he picked up his first victory in six starts when stepping up to today’s distance at Goodwood in the March Stakes lto, though he was long odds-on to do so. When he last met NEW LONDON which was at Goodwood he travelled very well before Ryan Moore lost his whip just as it was getting serious. NEW LONDON won with HOO YA MAL in third (subsequent Gr2 winner DEAUVILLE LEGEND was 2nd), I think you could certainly say that HYM would have finished closer had Moore not lost his whip.

His second in the Derby represents the best form, plus he was third to the smart EL BODEGON in his debut race on heavy, so if today does turn up soft he should be okay – can he provide George Boughey and David Probert with their first St Leger victory?  

Runner-up in the Derby:

Our view: Shit race and I can see Godolphin getting the double up after SILVER KNOTT. HOO YA MAL is the ew play.

IRISH ACTION 

1:50 - Gr2 Blandford Stakes

LA PETITE COCO holds the best form and will go well on the ground but has to give weight to the whole field with her penalty and weight for age allowance. She won this race last year and it will take a good one to take her crown off her.

Last year's win:

Her principle rival ABOVE THE CURVE is a big imposing filly trained by Joseph O’Brien. She won’t mind the ground conditions, she’s lightly raced and will enjoy the track. 3yos have a good record in the race and I think at this time of year their weight for age allowance is a big advantage. ATC hasn’t ran since May (105 days) but she’ll be fighting fit, it’s just a question of is she good enough to beat LA PETITE COCO?

Last year's 4th is INSINUEDO who is currently sitting at a tasty 11/2 at the time of writing and she gave LUXEMBOURG a hell of a scare lto. She was giving him 5lbs as well so she’s no mug. Big Lux has clearly improved a ton from that run to win yesterday's feature race and I’m not sure the same can be said for this girl. She is a 5yo now and I think we can safely say she has reached her ceiling.

Billy Lee prefers La Petite Coco over RUMBLES OF THUNDER who was a Gr3 winner last month. She won’t mind the ground but Paddy Twomey, the Owner and Trainer, will be hoping for placed black type at best.

It’s not a penalty kick but LA PETITE COCO is certainly the one they all have to beat. Not much juice in the price but would be a candidate to put into a small lunch money acca.

Our view: LA PETITE COCO or ABOVE THE CURVE for the places.

2:25 – Gr1 Flying Five Stakes 

Group 1 action in Ireland begins with the Flying Five over, you guessed it, five furlongs.  

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is the form horse to beat, and the market appreciates that – she is the 15/8 favourite for John Quinn, who boasts a 24% all-time SR when sending horses over to Ireland.  

She has won on soft ground before, won a Group 1 five-furlong contest lto, won a big 28-runner affair at Ascot, and isn’t drawn on the rail so she is unlikely to be trapped in – what isn’t there to like? 

Buckingham Palace win for HIGHFIELD PRINCESS in 2021:

The NIGHT OF THUNDER mare faces 18 rivals today, including last year’s winner ROMANTIC PROPOSAL and Curragh specialist MOONEISTA.  

Last year’s success for ROMANTIC PROPOSAL:

Furthermore, Adrian McGuinness’ A CASE OF YOU returns to the track for the first time in 85 days after a below-par effort in the six-furlong Platinum Jubilee and CASTLE STAR, a horse we previewed for the Betfair Sprint Cup before he became a non-runner, is looking to build on his red-hot two-year-old form in just his second start this season – he has intertwining form lines with TWILIGHT JET, GO BEARS GO, PERFECT POWER, and EBRO RIVER, something that must give him a good chance today.  

Second in the Gr1 Middle Park behind PERFECT POWER:

There are plenty who hold chances in a cracking renewal of the Flying Five, it looks set to be a brilliant race.  

Our view: John Quinn knows how to train a sprinter, this filly is in good form. Her win in Deauville is working out well, she had Minzaal in behind her. Looking forward to seeing her run

3:00 - Gr1 Moyglare Stud Stakes

Unbeaten juvenile filly MEDITATE puts her unbeaten record on the line. Obviously she’s looked very good all year winning a Gr3 on her second start, a Gr3 at Royal Ascot on her third start, and then after a two-month break she won a Gr2 lto over todays trip of 7f. Ground shouldn’t be an issue but her draw certainly is.

The one who can take full advantage of Meditate’s bad draw is the once raced TAHIYRA from the in form Dermot Weld stable. Her inexperience is of course a big worry and she’s going to have to be a proper filly to win a Group 1 on only her second start. She is a daughter of Siyouni and a half-sister to multiple Gr1 winner TARNAWA so she could well make the grade.

The one I quite like is NEVER ENDING STORY at 8/1. With most firms playing 4 places she is a solid ew play. By DUBAWI and out of a US Grade 1 winner she is bred in the purple, she won’t mind the ground and has won well over course and distance. Her draw is also a help and I imagine Wayne Lordan will be very keen to go forward and make plenty of use of her.

Our view: Ballydoyle like MEDITATE to go in and have backed her in a treble with AESOPS FABLES and KYPRIOS. We think NEVER ENDING STORY is a hedge.

3:35 - Gr1 National Stakes

Charlie Fellowes has pulled his big boy pants on by declaring his stable star MORBAAN. A winner of the Gr2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood on his last start, he is a rapidly improving colt and is a worthy dart for Fellowes to throw.

AESOP’S FABLES, the ride of Ryan Moore, is undoubtedly his biggest danger. A son of NO NAY NEVER and half bro to Royal Ascot winning 2yo WASINGTON DC.

Ryan Moore’s mounts today:

The way he battled lto in the Gr2 Futurity Stakes over course and distance on only his second start was admirable and he’s clearly going to be a tough nut to crack. He had a little setback after his debut win so to win like that beating the re-opposing HANS ANDERSEN and PROUD AND REGAL is impressive and scarily it wouldn’t be out of the question to see him improve from that run.

AL RIFFA represents the Joseph O’Brien stable and although he looked good lto winning a maiden this race today is a different kettle of fish altogether. He’s going to have to improve considerably from that win. It can be done, he has the physique and pedigree to do so but it would take a brave person to put money down before seeing that improvement in this race.

Our view: AESOPS FABLES has beaten two of his rivals lto, AL RIFFA isn’t as good and MORBAAN is running over the course for the first time and I don’t think he’s as good either.

4:10 - Gr1 Irish St Leger

A field of 11 go to post for the Irish St Leger today, a market that is topped by Aidan O’Brien’s Ascot Gold Cup hero, KYPRIOS.

This son of GALILEO has done nothing wrong this season and looks to be the natural successor to STRADIVARIUS’ staying crown - a drop down to 1m6f shouldn’t be an issue, he did win the Vintage Cup over the same same distance earlier this season.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien last won this race in 2008 with HONOLULU, his staying superstar has a great chance to hand the master of Ballydoyle with his first Irish St Leger title in 14 years.

Shaggas’ HAMISH and Joseph O’Brien’s RAISE YOU look to be the biggest dangers to KYPRIOS on paper.

The former is a useful stayer who was last seen winning the Gr3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester four months ago and RAISE YOU justified his favouritism lto to beat SEARCH FOR A SONG comfortably in the Irish St Leger Trial, a horse who reappears today - both of these pieces of form are good, though potentially not good enough in these circumstances.

A bigger prices, PRINCESS ZOE for Tony Mullins returns to the track after a 47-day lay-off since her slight disappointment in the Goodwood Cup, though the ground was probably against her that day.

She finished second in the Irish St Leger Trial 12 months ago on the same ground as today - a repeat performance of that will put her in the mix over course and distance, though this race is much hotter.

Second in the 2021 Trial:

Our view: KYPRIOS has done nothing but look really fucking good this year. He should just win too.

Risk on