Equinties - Gosden's hope sun arrests

Gm Equinauts

The newsletter was on the scoreboard again yesterday (this month has been so bullish) with two winners from three bets.

If you stick to the prog - bet less, singles with conviction and keep the chimp locked - horse racing can pay well long term.

The lev just lev’d as usual. On the quick ground, that thing was never losing. A good 1x boost for any other bet if not a good single.

And then the main show.

BGP Capital slammed it. We knew more about this horse than any of the Balding lot and indeed his new owner.

Why?

He was in the next stable next to the BGP Capital horses for four months. Pre-trained at the same yard in Lambourn with ours, we had seen this lad prep for his breeze-up’s… and nothing could touch him.

In fact, he was so good we tried to get a friend of BGP Capital’s to do a deal for him weeks before the sale so his current owner is lucky to have him…and what a price too. 125k is what Opulence won him for at Newmarket…our side offered 250k pre-sales but the early offer was rejected as the previous owners always intended to commit to the breeze up route. To be fair to them, it was a hot market at the time.

Unfortunately it pissed down all that week and made the 2 furlong track a bog. PUROSANGUE needed quick going that day but that played perfectly into the hands of wining bidders Opulence who accidently got themselves an absolute bargain.

We think he’s special and will be very hard to beat from here.

Congratulations, Opulence - we’re just a tad jealous! And a big well done to Mark Grant who did all the hard work (Andrew Balding literally only made the entry…in fact, he probably didn’t even do that!).

Now, let’s dive in.

MERCH

LAUNCHES THIS WEEK!

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

It’s bad racing today - perfect time to play it. If we hit 200 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

Feature race

Today’s feature race is the 15.35 Ganton Stakes, a Listed race for 3yo+.

SHINING BLUE and EL DRAMA are heading the market and it might well be the reverse forecast.

SHINING BLUE won a Class 2 at York at the end of May on good to firm going, the handicapper liked it because he’s now rated 109 from 103. A couple of smart performances in defeat at Meydan and a win in January suggest he’s well capable today.

EL DRAMA has always been a smart horse. A second in the Group 2 Joel Stakes to MUTASAABEQwho is rated 119 reads well considering this is a Listed race. He also ran in Meydan, when he was second in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta, and had MASTER OF THE SEAS behind him who is rated 117. On form, this lad is the best horse in the race.

CHICHESTER’s form figures at York reads 5,7,16,7,8. His run two starts back was promising, he settled for second behind BERKSHIRE SHADOW. He was then thrown in with the big boys in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes and came up short against DESERT CROWN and HUKUM.

Verdict: EL DRAMA has struggled to win but he does offer some good form (and perhaps value) and is the pick in what should really only be a two horse race.

On the side lines

JJ jnr and Marco Ghiani got 21 and 25 day on the sidelines respectively with Paula next at 35 but one has to feel for poor old Kielan Woods who got a whopping 42 days!

Muir acknowledges the rule break but thinks the punishment is too severe and so do we, especially given she isn't overwhelmed with bookings everyday.

The BHA and the Professional Jockeys Association are due to review the changes made, but they'll never rescind their recent decision so racing will now have to adapt and live with it.

The penalties might be too severe, but the counter argument to that is too easy - jockeys shouldn't break the rules. In over 26,000 rides, there have been 279 rides in breach of the new rules, just over 1%. The BHA could quite easily say that if 99% of jockeys can abide by the rules, why can't the rest?

Moving forward, the sport needs to do everything possible to not allow the BHA to take this movement against the whip any further.

Royal Ascot entries

At the time of writing, the first two days of entries at Royal Ascot have been released and despite the Group 1 confirmations, there were a few interesting entries elsewhere that we should cover.

To begin with, Chester winner ARREST, who is still entered for the Group 2 King Edward Stakes, was given an entry to the Queen’s Vase over 1m6f, so we could get to see the Gosden one time Derby hope over an extended distance.

He was like a giraffe on roller skates in the Derby two weeks back so the Gosden’s must be hoping the rain comes. It’ll certainly be an interesting Royal Ascot if it does and this newsletter will be the only Royal Ascot content you need to read - no one better than us in extremities!

And from the same stable, SAGA, second in the Britannia last year, was given a Wolferton Stakes entry alongside his Royal Hunt Cup entry - it looks like the former could be where they are leaning with his official rating of 106.

One horse who was confirmed for the race at the five-day stage and has seen plenty of money is PEROTTO in the Royal Hunt Cup.

Now rated three pounds below his 2021 Britannia Stakes win, he looks a big danger in a competitive handicap.

One horse who probably won’t be seen at Royal Ascot is ante-post whack ASADNA who is rumoured to miss the big race. TBC.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

17.30 Goodwood

WHAT A QUESTION heads the market for the Johnston’s who unleashed a smart 2yo at Goodwood only a few weeks ago. This filly was brought cheaply for 55,000gns, she’s by LOPE DE VEGA and her mother won a couple of Group 3 races in America. Her mothers sister produced Gr1 placed filly MALAVETH. So there is plenty to like.

ADAAY IN DEVON ran 5th at Wolverhampton and could use that experience today. Her pedigree is mediocre though, she’s the seventh foal from her mum and she’s produced one winner.

SHIRLASKI was a smart pinhooking result - he was brought in February 2022 from Shadwell for 4,000gns and in September resold for 42,000gns. She’s by EQTIDAAR who was a sprinter and his mother is well related, notably a sister to REPLY who was placed in the Gr1 Middle Park. She needs to build on her 5th on debut, that was a very good maiden. 3 winners have come out of it and the winner has won again since

Verdict: Any market support should be noted but the Johnston’s can get them ready first time out and WHAT A QUESTION is the likely winner on pedigree and deserves some risk on.

TODAYS RACING

Today’s best stats

No bullish stats today.

These stats do not constitute financial advice. Use to either play the Fantasy league or create a ‘chimp acca’ to allow you to practice good habits and play singles with conviction.

RISK ON

With BGP Capital landing the gamble yesterday, again, we’re not too keen to give any back so we’ll play small today and stick to the fast ground horses.

18.40 RAVENS ARK

We’ve only bet this horse once before and he won. His pedigree will love this ground today and he is clearly targeted at the race having finished second in it last year on ground too testing for him. Half bet at 3/1.

20.10 LERMOOS LEGEND

Half bet on this lad at 11/4. Bowens thrive this time of year and this lad should have won lto. Other threats in the race prefer softer conditions.

15.50 PENZANCE has perhaps disappointed connections but looks good for a bit of lev on another today. The race is high in numbers so don’t over expose.

Several readers have requested some Chepstow fancies - we think GERT LUSH and SIOUX WARRIOR make a good little 5/1 double, both fast ground horses.