Equinties - Gosden front running

Gm Equinauts

We did say… it’s not right.

Now, let’s dive in.

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HEADLINE ROUND UP

TREBLE DOWN

ENERGUMENE’s bid to claim a third successive Queen Mother Champion Chase is all but over as Willie Mullins sadly revealed the chasing beast will likely miss the whole 2023/24 season.

The nine-year-old was back to this best at Cheltenham in March to tough it out in the deplorable conditions and bolt up by 10 lengths, a full month before he saw off CHACUN POR SOI at Punchestown.

The announcement has left the road open for his up-and-coming stablemate EL FABIOLO to show what he has promised from last season’s novice chasing campaign and as such, he is the 5/4 favourite.

Sticking with chasing news, FLOORING PORTER is set to go novice chasing this year and could be seen at the Cheltenham October Festival in the three-mile novice chase.

BREEDERS UP IN DOUBT FOR HOLLIE

It was only recently we were celebrating Hollie Doyle bagging a ride down under, now it seems like her Breeders Cup bid is in danger due the seven-day ban received for careless riding on Monday.

The ban, which she will obviously appeal, is set to run from October 30th to November 6th which would put her out of any potential Breeders’ Cup rides, notably BRADSELL in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

The ban was for riding ROSE LIGHT in the 1m3f fillies’ handicap where her mount shifted to the right.

On the appeal, she said: "I'm going to try to appeal next Thursday with the representation of Rory Mac Neice. I made a huge mistake and I know that. Visually it didn't look great but what I did was minimal."

FRONT RUNNING

Sticking with Hollie Doyle, she is set to ride NASHWA in the QEII on Champions Day as connections have decided to front run the weather problems and steer clear of their anticipated Champion Stakes route.

The four-year-old by FRANKEL finished second to MOSTAHDAF in the Group 1 Juddmonte International on her last start, though connections are dropping her back in trip to a mile with the impending soft ground.

This looks like a good decision by connections to front run the pending conditions, as her stamina at 1m2f on soft is a question mark and she has form over a mile this year, notably from he Group 1 Falmouth Stakes win in July.

POSTPONED TO YORTON 

DUBAWI has already notched up a Grade 1 winning Cheltenham Festival hero, in the shape of DODGING BULLETS (bred by a certain L Dettori). So, it bodes well for a son of DUBAWI to stand at a National Hunt Stud.

DUBAWI is obviously a force on the flat, and has some sons at stud that are really starting to make an impact; TOO DARN HOT, NEW BAY and NIGHT OF THUNDER are very exciting, and of course GHAIYYATH was popular at the recent yearling sales. POSTPONED was a 4x Group 1 winner, that included the Coronation Cup and King George. He was rated 124, only 2lbs lower than TOO DARN HOT. However, he failed to excite the commercial breeders in the flat game.

Importantly for National Hunt hard knocks, POSTPONED was sound and competitive up until the age of 6. Alongside him, Yorton stand Coronation Cup winner PETHERS MOON, GENTLEWAVE, ARRIGO and a son of the much missed ALDERFLUG.

YOUNG BLOOD

We look at the pedgree’s on show in the Carlisle bumper today:

17.20 CARLISLE

Lucinda’s TOMMYS LAW heads the market here. He’s finished 2nd in two Points, the latter in soft conditions, and was subsequently sold for £75k. He’s by KINGSTON HILL who’s progeny tend to need top of the ground but he himself was a soft ground winner. There is a KINGSTON HILL running in the first, if he runs well in today’s conditions then it could add to the argument for this lad.

CRACKING RHAPSODY won a weak bumper lto at Perth. Carries a pen for that. Ground no problem on pedigree.

HAZY GLEN is being backed only for the NR’s and the weakness of this heat. On pedigree he has very little chance staying in these conditions.

DEDICATED HERO didn’t run well in his points. Second dam has produced one good hors, but other than that his page is a bit rubbish.

GET A SUPERSTAR a bit like the above in that in all his races, both in Points and under rules, he’s been well best. Ground should be okay but ability a question mark.

DIAMOND MIX has the best pedigree for the mud today. You have to scroll down to the third dam on his page to see anything at all but what you see there is fine - heavy ground French winners, one named after our favourite wine, PAUILLAC.

The others are going to struggle for various reasons.

Verdict: The fave, TOMMYS LAW probably has most ability in this race and his class might get him through here, in fact, he could bolt up in this weak race but the ground is too much a question mark. (Check out KINGSTON BRIDGE runs in the first, if he struggles then that doesn’t bode well for the fave here, equally if he goes close…). The hedge could be DIAMOND MIX who will love the mud but you’d really want to see a squeeze on him as money is everything in bumpers. Currently 10/1.

RISK ON

No stand out bets as of yet, we want to check the ground at Carlisle first. Any bets will be on X @equinties.

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