Equinties - Gordon's army

Gm Equinauts

A brilliant day for the newsletter, we highlighted a pretty useful mare who could develop into something quite special like her Auntie EPATANTE.

One to follow. Let’s find some more….Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

A DIFFERENT PLAN

Monday usually sees Paul Nicholls-related news hit the frame thanks to his Ditcheat Diary with Betfair and yesterday did not disappoint as he revealed that BRAVEMANSGAME might, just might, head to the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury in February. 

This comes after he said that his stable star would head straight to the Gold Cup in March, though his reasoning for the potential in tactics is that he used to go to the Aon Chase (old Denman Chase) with KAUTO STAR, DENMAN, and SILVINIACO CONTI on the way to the Cheltenham Festival. So, why not try something different with BMG? 

If he does head to Newbury in February, then he could run into SHISHKIN again as Nicky Henderson is also looking at the same contest.

Henderson said: "We're thinking of having a run in between now and the Gold Cup and the Denman at Newbury is probably most likely. It's a good track for him and should be the right race. He won the Ascot Chase last season but that was over two [miles] five [furlongs] but I want to stick to three miles.

"It seems like most people think he would have won the King George and so do I. It doesn't really matter though. The Gold Cup looks the right race for him now."

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/gold-cup-rivals-shishkin-and-bravemansgame-on-potential-collision-course-as-trainers-reveal-same-possible-newbury-target-and2a6X844Tc/

GORDON’S RACE

We LOVE the XC (cross country) at Cheltenham. For the last two years we’ve landed our Festival NAP’s in DELTA WORK. IT WAS PRINTING MONEY.

A deeper look into our historic performance will find we’ve actually landed four Festival NAP’s from the last five years, the only L taken when that French yoke EASYSLAND beat TIGER ROLL in 2020. Yes, we’re sorry to admit we were against TIGER ROLL in ‘22, but we like winners.

That’s a pretty bloody good strike rate even if we do say so ourselves.

It’s a brilliant race and an even better one to punt because, quite rightly, the best horses win the race. Surely, that’s what people want to see right?

Not everyone apparently.

If you like big messy handicaps, go watch Wolves on a Sunday. Leave the XC alone.

Anyway, we have digressed, the reason for bringing the race up is because he King of XC, Gordon Elliott, has confirmed that CONFLATED will be aimed towards the Cross Country Chase at the Festival via a trip to the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at the DRF. 

The 2021 Irish Gold Cup winner ran a good race behind GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Savills Chase at Christmas before his fall late on. Elliott will now be heading to the Cross Country mob-handed thanks to GALVIN, DELTA WORK, and CONFLATED (a horse he said was “as good as I’ve ever seen jumping banks”). Woof!

Although he has a history with the race, CONFLATED may have the unenviable task of taking on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS again as Willie Mullins says the Irish Gold Cup “is still very much in the mix for him”. 

The Gold Cup champion was electric at Leopardstown on his latest start, putting up an all-time great performance in the Savills Chase, and he could be heading back to the DRF to defend his title. “It's a wonderful prize to win, and time-wise it's fine as well as there is enough time between it and Cheltenham,” said Mullins.

“We'd like to run if at all possible and hopefully we will. We'll see how he is over the next few weeks and take it from there."

Eight horses from the Grade 2 Aintree Mares’ Bumper won by DYSART ENOS have gone on to win next time out, the latest of which being GOLDEN ACE who made use of all the allowances to win the opener at Taunton yesterday. 

The Jeremy Scott-trained six-year-old battled with the might of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson to come out on top, providing a big form boost to DYSART ENOS ahead of her tilt at the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. 

Her success is not the only mare who won on hurdles debut as JOYEUSE, a horse we tipped up in yesterday’s newsletter, fought off a big market drift to win.

GOLDEN ACE was cut into 16/1 for the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle by Paddy Power while JOYEUSE is now 14/1.

TODAY’S BEST STATS

One stat, one winner yesterday as SAWPIT SIENNA (miraculously) returned to winning form to bag the exact same race she won last year.

There are NO standout stats today.

YOUNG BLOOD

Young Blood is on fire!

There are no bumpers today, but like we have been doing recently (with great success), we will supplement this section with an open hurdles race.

13.40 MARKET RASEN 

A maiden hurdle in which the market absolutely cannot make up it’s mind.

Current sportsbook fave (but not on the exchange) is CHECK THE SCORE. A point and bumper winner for Fergal O’Brien. He is reasonably bred, nothing flashy but made for NH racing. His bumper form is actually weaker than the hype suggests but he definitely the right fave - how could he not be fave, he’s done nothing wrong!

Vying for the market lead and in fact, getting backed on the machine is ZAIN NIGHTS. Ex-flat race for Charlton, he’s moved to Wadhams yard to face the timber. His first run over sticks saw the jockey get pulled into the weighing room for not trying lmao. He was a very good flat horse who got a trip, there is no reason he can’t make a good hurdler.

There was early money GRAND ALBERT but that has been sold off. His previous point and bumper form leaves him with a bit to find vs the Fergal O’Brien form.

G A HENTY has a nice pedigree, is a half to rocket GIDLEIGH PARK. He unseated rider lto when getting scrubbed a long - he doesn’t look as good as his sibling but is entitled to improve.

The rest can’t win.

Verdict: the market will decide the winner late, the fave before the of will win. We think if ZAIN NIGHT has been messed around with and is hiding something, and goes off fave, then he can can with this as we simply don’t think the form carried by Fergal’s is all that. Watch the market.

RISK ON

A tough days racing today with no stand out bet…as of yet. Any bets will be posted to X @equinties.

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