Equinties - Gold Cup shock

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A day of no bets, no price watching and no anxiety. Try it, it feels good.

You don't have to bet to enjoy the races...the scenes yesterday in the Gold Cup a testament to that.

(By the way, it just shows how much the Gold Cup takes out of horses, because unless Baffert has been training him, FASTORSLOW should never have finished so close to GDC).

That’s Punchestown for you. Great racing but often some unusual results. It's why we encourage to stay out of the jumps betting ring this time of year, at least until the ground dries out and the fast ground horses start running. No risk on - just enjoy it and watch other people and their chimps do their dough. 

Can’t sit out the betting? Try the TOTE Fantasy, it definitely helps to cage the emotional chimp shouting BET MORE at you. 

Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

It would be a dream to jump

It did not look likely for him on the home turn with TULLYHILL seemingly cruising and going odds on but A DREAM TO SHARE showed more grit and determination to get back up than most horse recent years, we’ll, at least since the days his dam sire GALILEO raced. 

But where next for this 5x bumper winner? His pedigree doesn’t scream ‘jumper’. 

Staying on the flat looks a good idea. He'd be a breeding anomaly if he could apply his engine over obstacles. That said, we've been wrong to continuously try take this horse on so no doubt he’ll prove us wrong again by pissing up at Cheltenham next year (he won't).

Punchestown

Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle

The first Grade 1 of the day is one of the most open contests of the week as plenty of Stayers’ Hurdle horses reoppose each other.

TEAHUPOO, as he was at Cheltenham, is the favourite today having seen his third in the contest reversed and re-revered with DASHEL DRASHER - the rain coming today/last night will benefit his chances. 

The money horse in the race has been Willie Mullins’ KLASSICAL DREAM who won this last year and in 2021 AND is 3/3 at the track - he may have lost his touch slightly but his claim is obvious.

The interesting horse in the line-up is MONKFISH for Willie Mullins after his second on reappearance lto. 

He hadn’t been seen in the track for over a year and achieved a good second back over hurdles lto - improvement from that run is likely and don't forget, he was previously touted as a Gold Cup horse.

Grade 1 Barberstown Castle Novice Chase 

This could be fairly easy for EL FABIOLO as he looks to build on his win over JONBON in the Arkle.

It’s a race of horses that have already been beaten by EL FABIOLO in SAINT ROI and DYSART DYNAMO so he should have the beating of them as long as he hasn’t bounced. 

INDIANA JONES completes the field and he is a Grade 3 winner at Navan who disappointed the last day - serious improvement is needed here today for a race that seems to be at EL FABIOLO's mercy.

Bumper

The money horse is APPLE'S OF BRESIL, 16's into 3's but for those 'following the money' take note: the books have only squeezed the each way place. They must not think he wins.

The favourite is still BALLYBURN and looks a strong candidate to only echo a typical racing enthusiast's 'Willie's in the bumper' trackside hymn. 

He's a full brother to top chaser NOBLE ENDEAVOUR and he's been flawless in what he's done so far. Can he be opposed? Probably not tbh.

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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

14.50 Beverley

SEA FLAWLESS runs off a mark of 82 which is fair, from a powerful yard so has to be taken seriously and given her pedigree improvement likely as she matures as most SEA THE STARS do. She's the sister to rocket AL AASY who went up 20lbs in 6 runs after his second. Could this girl do that too? She might want quicker ground.

 AULD TOON LOON is by BELARDO out of the GALILEO mare SNOWTIME who was once a 400k yearling being half to 1000 Guineas winner SLEEPYTIME. He ran well lto (3rd) finishing behind a good pair, the second has since won off a mark of 82. ATL was giving them over a stone in weight so an opening mark of 76 might be lenient. A step up to 1m2f might also suit him better than a mile. 

These are all 4yo's so really not much cop but AULD TOON LOON is probably the likely winner with (on blood) only Haggas’ to beat.  

Risk on

Be careful with betting and staking this weekend, WE HAVE A MAX BET MONDAY. 

A bit like LITTLE MISS DANTE, we have been waiting weeks for this thing to get an entry. The yard aren't gamblers either so should be a price. 

13.50 ANFAAL 

4/5 on books vs evens on exchange, he's a full bet single but if too short for you, add to another bet to lever up. 

20.00 SURREY NOIR

Taking on the well backed HAILEY YA MAL fave here. SURREY NOIR ran an okay race on debut for a yard whose horses often need a run. He's well bred being a half to 100 rated THE BLACK ALBUM and is supposed to be one of Fellowes' better 3yo. Owen Burrows' is nicely bred and will be better in time but they too often need the run and he's got a bad draw. Unexposed horses in race so keeping it to a half bet at 11/4 (but would probably be a full bet if Fellowes was in better form).

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: