Equinties - Gold Cup day

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BIG RACE PREVIEWS

13.30 GRADE 1 TRIUMPH HURDLE

The race for up and coming juveniles. LOSSIEMOUTH last year and TIGER ROLL in ‘14 the big ones of note. Is there a new superstar in this field?

Let’s find out.

Five of these at the forefront of the betting raced each other last time out - KARGESE beating STORM HEART and MAJBOROUGH who all finished up in front of BUNTING and ETHICAL DIAMOND. It’s weird KARGESE is the biggest price of the lot given she won so convincingly last time.

MAJBOROUGH is somehow fave and is by a sire we’ve absolutely never heard of, so he shouldn’t be winning this. Seriously. If he does win, then MARTINBOROUGH is … no, he’s not winning. Forget about it.

The big eye-catcher of that aforementioned Leopardstown race between the five runners was ETHICAL DIAMOND. He was gunning it down the back straight having been off the pace in last and looked to be making up ground (and fast) before making a slight error which gave up all his gains. He was closing hard at the finish suggesting the long Cheltenham straight could help him make up the difference. Pedigree says no, but the eyes say yes.

NURBURGRING has very close form with KARGESE and might have beat her if the race was run again.

SALVATOR MUNDI is the big unknown in this. He was last seen in France finishing a length behind SIR GINO who, as we know, was fave for this before being pulled yesterday. He has the pedigree in this race to be the best of this lot long term, the questions are whether he he needs time to acclimatise (it’s been nearly year now since coming from France) and whether he needs more time to mature. If you liked SIR GINO, you have to like this lad.

HIGHWIND needs to jump better and the rest might struggle.

Verdict: Faves normally win this race but we’ve tried to avoid the faves all week. That said the slop lover is STORM HEART. Every single part of this horses pedigree says ignore, but we can’t help but feel ETHICAL DIAMOND ran a lot better than the bare form shows. He was eating up ground when asked and the only reason he didn’t close to winning was for a bad jump second last.

Note: if HIGHWIND can now jump, he has a huge chance.

14.10 CLASS 1 COUNTRY HURDLE

FAIVOI won it last year and there Skelton’s are on FIRE. Can he back it up? Let’s find out.

The cavalry charge race of the week is always fascinating as finding one that finishes in the top six is almost as good as a win in any other race.

The big Irish hopeful is KING OF KINGSFIELD and Jack Kennedy is apparently purring over him off a mark of 140. Jack will need to sort his steering out, he’s been shit all week.

He could be dangerous in this handicap, his second to SLADE STEEL in a maiden hurdle before finishing second in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle is stand out now. He has a great chance, and you can understand the support.

Dan Skelton has had a week to remember so far and L’EAU DU SUD was apparently his best chance heading into the Festival this year.

That Betfair Hurdle form is looking strong as GO DANTE and FAIVOIR came home first and second in Saturday’s Imperial Cup. He has failed to win four handicaps now, so one would have to question his claims off 135, and he has a different profile coming into the race than Skelton’s other handicap winners this week.

The horse for money was ABSURDE before yesterday’s rain, though the downpour towards the end of racing haven’t helped his chances.

So, although ABSURDE was the money horse yesterday morning, it’s actually SO SCOTTISH for Emmet Mullins (classic) that is warm in the market. He has good form in the book having finished second to BOOTHILL in November 2022 when BOOTHILL was rated just 140, and off a mark of 133 over hurdles, he could go well. Soft ground should be fine also.

BIALYSTOK is another who probably wouldn’t mind a sounder surface as he won his maiden hurdle on yielding and a Flat race on France on good. He was going well lto at the DRF before falling. Aside from that run, he is one from two in handicap hurdles and could still have a few pounds up his sleeve.

PIED PIPER was second in this race last year and has just two extra pounds to his name, but Danny Gilligan’s three-pound claim puts him one pound well-in. Davy Russell gave him a bit of a poor ride last year and he ran into a Skelton plot, so he has to have a strong chance if he can deal with 111 days off the track.

Speaking of FAIVOIR, he is officially four pounds well-in as he has a rating of 140 but runs off 136. He is two pounds above his County Hurdle-winning mark, but Tristan Durrell claims three pounds and on that evidence, you can’t deny his chances here.

We gave RISK BELLE as a losing eyecatcher after the DRF as, in our own words, “once Mark Walsh knew he was beaten, RISK BELLE wasn’t given a hard time”. She looks to be JPs third string (which means nothing), but she has Festival form (third in the Boodles last year) and shouldn’t be discounted.

Verdict: PIED PIPER EW surely will love todays conditions but the plays to beat him are L’EAU DU SUD & SO SCOTTISH EW in a hard race.

14.50 GRADE 1 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

READIN TOMMY WRONG won lto beating a good field which included the Ballymore third ILE ATLANTIQUE and the Supreme 3rd Firefox. Had the re-opposing LECKY WATSON behind him in 3rd place. On form he looks very strong but the race did fall apart for him to steal. 

Up in trip GIDLEIGH PARK by Walk in the Park is from the family of DENMAN. He has improved all season and this 17.2hh giant has a big future in front of him. Although make no mistake he has speed which he showed lto beating LUCKY PLACE who ran a blinder in the week.

DANCING CITY is another Willie Mullins horse who won a Grade 1 lto. He beat PREDATORS GOLS who disappointed / was given a shocking ride in the Ballyburn. Danny Mullins will be itching to get on to the scoreboard.

CAPTAIN TEAGUE was third last year in the Gr1 Champion Bumper and won the Gr1 Challow Hurdle this year. He’s got a big chance but for some reason he doesn’t excite.

CHIGORIN is lightly raced and improved stepped up in trip lto. Trainer and jockey form is rock solid so has to be taken seriously. Won on heavy ground lto. Improver.  

JOHNNYWHO has 6 lengths to make up on GIDLEIGH PARK after their last run at the course. Has 2 lengths to make up on CAPTAIN TEAGUE after their race in the Challow.

LECKY WATSON was third behind READIN TOMMY WRONG lto. Willie pops the hood on him as he can be a bit lively. Not the best hurdler but does stay and was 4th in the Champ bumper last year.

HIGH CLASS HERO is 5 from 5 under rules. This could very well be his ceiling but he’s clearly talented. Market to guide.

Challow third THE JUKEBOX MAN runs for Harry Redknapp and Ben Pauling who managed to get in to the winners enclosure yesterday. They’ll be hoping the step up in trip helps, lively outsider.

Verdict: There are three Gr1 Novice hurdles at the Festival, the first two have gone to Irish trainers, this one could go to a British trainer and the best looks like it may be GIDLEIGH PARK. Very well bred, stays but also has a bit of speed, has course form and Harry Fry is a very good trainer in his own right.

15.30 GRADE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

The big one. The showcase race of the whole calendar year. 3 miles 2 furlongs and 70 yards of pulsating equine athletes going hammer and tong.

Willie the Wizard as usual has the favourite, last years winner GALOLPIN DES CHAMPS is out to secure his place in the history books once again. A lot went wrong for him last year, never totally in control of the race, but he grinded it out against BMG. Amazingly, after all the celebrations had settled the Racing Post gave him a rating of 184. Which put him alongside DESERT ORCHID, DENMAN, KAUTO STAR, SPRINTER SACMASTER MINDED and CARVILLS HILL. He has fallen at Cheltenham before, and never always looked like he loves it. He’ll have to bring his A game, but normally class prevails.

So who are his adversaries…

FASTORSLOW has twice beaten Galopin, in 3 runs against each other. However, GDC was coming off a gruelling Gold Cup when beaten at Punchestown, and another at the same track over an inadequate 2m3f. FASTORSLOW has really improved since stepping up to 3 miles, although he came up short against CORACH RAMBLER at the festival last year in the Ultima. He’ll need another PB today.

Gordon Elliot saddles GERRI COLOMBE for Robcour who have had a successful festival, this would really cap off a fruitful week. Rated 12lbs inferior to the favourite, he’ll have to sprout wings to beat Willies. Beaten 23 lengths by GDC last time out at Leopardstown illustrates how hard the task is. He found THE REAL WHACKER too good at the festival last year. Improvement is needed, but not out of the question.

L’HOMME PRESSE was brought for a moderate €22,000 - he’s won nearly £400,000. Arguably the least exposed runner in the field in Grade 1 company at least, Venetia Williams’ talented chasers’ only blemish was in the King George when unseating Charlie Deutsch at the last. He looked beaten at that stage, Bravemansgame sauntered to victory.

BRAVEMANSGAME, the King George winner and last years runner up is a juicy 16/1. He came up short 3 times before Christmas but has been off for 80 days, freshened up for the fight. If GDC has improved from last year, the 7 length deficit is still going to be hard to breach. Apart from MONMIRAL and GINNYS DESTINY who both ran well, the former obviously winning, Paul Nichols has had a quiet week. He could run a seasons PB and still come 4th!

CORACH RAMBLER, 3 from 3 at Cheltenham, last years Ultima winner who had Fastorslow behind him. The 2023 Grand National winner will be staying on at the end that’s for sure. But is he good enough? Age is against him, a fine looking 10yo, but a ten year old hasn’t won this since 1998. Desert Orchid won as a 10yo (thanks Wikipedia) but Corach Rambler probably isn’t cut from the same cloth.

GENTLEMANSGAME was bred by Racing TVs Nick Luck’s mother, ‘Mrs Luck.’ He’s beaten BMG most recently, but was conceding 6lbs and it was only a length in it. He must be a little tricky to train; he’s ran 6 times in 2 years. But he’s an 8yo and that might play to his advantage. He’s on the upward trajectory with low mileage on the clock. Mouse Morris believes he has a fighting chance, we better take him seriously.

JUNGLE BOOGIE is the ride of Rachael Blackmore. The lowest rated horse and one of the oldest along with Corach Rambler, but only ran the 5 times! This race will be brutal for him.

Fish Pond… MONKFISH, is towards the bottom of the market around 33/1. After his festival win in the Brown Advisory in 2021, the analysis mentions him as a future Gold Cup winner so he better take his chance and get on with it. Entered for the Stayers Hurdle initially he’s obviously been showing plenty at home to warrant the entry. 4 runs since his 2021 victory shows he’s had his injuries and problems - more is needed to beat his much younger stablemate.

NASSALAM carries the silks of John and Yvonne Stone, they’ll be doing the rain dance because both his recent wins have been on heavy. His official rating of 161 puts him slightly above CORACH RAMBLER. Gary Moore has been singing his praises and reckons he has improved again from the Welsh National, where he won by 35 lengths. High hopes for this lad, maybe next year will be his time in the sun.

THE REAL WHACKER really needs to improve and get back on track, this time last year he was beating GERRI COLOMBE. Patrick Neville wouldn’t have too many at this level, training in Yorkshire this will be a fun day out for the team. The yard has sent out 114 runners since 2019, a stark contrast to the big training battalions that he takes on today. Good on him. Hope he runs his socks off for them and gives Sam Twiston-Davies a good spin.

Verdict: Do we really think GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is going to lose? No. No we don’t.

16.10 CLASS 2 OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE 1

A mix of shortie ‘good things’ and monster prices have won this race. Last years was carnage, only 9 runners finished out of 23 and as a result, PREMIER MAGIC won it 66/1.

PREMIER MAGIC took advantage of the mayhem and helped himself to the lead on the bend and couldn’t be caught. If you watch the race back, you’ll see IT’S ON THE LINE coming from the clouds to finish second. You could watch the race a thousands times over and still wonder how the hell he got there. He was a mile behind PREMIER MAGIC at the last… like, actually out of the screen and last seen to be slowing down. But then out of no where storms on to the picture as if God himself flicked him up the hill to give him a helping hand. Maybe God bet him? On that evidence, JP McManus must have liked what he’d seen because he bought him and now he’s favourite.

Apparently JP also tried to buy FERNS LOCK but they didn’t want to sell. This lad got pumped by ITS ON THE LINE at Down Royal so it’s hard to see that form reversed, but he’s less exposed that most and at 7yo could be improving.

They both have PREMIER MAGIC to beat.

BILLAWAY is next in the market. Now, if you think ITS ON THE LINE came from no where at Cheltenham, watch this:

ITS ON THE LINE was obviously spent after ragging it with the leader RAMILLIES all race, granted, but what BILLAWAY was still impressive. He’s obviously quite a lazy racer and that’s not perhaps what you want to be on round Cheltenham.

The rest should struggle to win.

Verdict: Given a lot of these have been hammering each other in and out of form, it’s really, really hard to look past the fave ITS ON THE LINE who seems to be on the upward curve and demolishing anyone in his way. PREMIER MAGIC is obvs going to be bang there but if JP’s can be up with the pace this time, we can’t see him not motoring to the line first.

16.50 GRADE 2 MARES’ CHASE

DINOBLUE was a good hurdler but she has turned in to an even better chaser having not been out of the first two on all 9 starts over fences. Her last two runs she has recorded RPR of 161 and 162. Form of her last run now looks very good considering she beat the Gr1 Champion Chase winner.

LIMERICK LACE has shown some really good form this year winning well over 2m4 lto and 2m2 three starts back. Two starts back she didn’t see out the 3m but finished second with merit. Gets 5lbs from Dinoblue and any rain won’t be a problem.

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY was second in this race last year so has good experience at the track, a year older means a year wiser. She beat RIVIERE D’ETEL fairly comfortably lto giving the Gordon Elliott mare 2lbs, she has to give her 3lbs today.

BRIDES HILL prefers quicker going to her stablemate and comes here on a 3 timer. On ratings she’s got a lot to find, each way claims.

The next 3 British mares MARSH WREN, PINK LEGEND & CAROLE’S PASS look up against it on what they have shown so far, the latter improving and could run well.

Verdict: 4 years ago DINOBLUE would have been contesting the Champion Chase and on the evidence she has already beaten the 2024 winner and runner up she would have put up a good performance no doubt. Allegorie de Vassy has valuable course form and looks to be a solid ew play.

17.30 CLASS MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE

The get-out-of-jail finale, though it doesn’t look like there is as GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the contest this year.

Willie Mullins has a good chance of winning the race this year with QUAI DE BOURBON. He has won two maiden hurdles and has a mark of 140. Although he feasibly could be well-handicapped, he hasn’t dazzled and he is a short price.

WATERFORD WHISPERS on the other hand has some nice form to shout about, notably when beating ANSWER TO KAYF at Fairyhouse in December.

The second has won since and is rated four pounds higher than WATERFORD WHISPERS, so he has a strong chance here for some notable connections.

As for ANSWER TO KAYF, he isn’t that far off WATERFORD WHISPERS as he was giving three pounds away in December and only has to give away four pounds this time around.

He also has Grade 2 form when third to LOUGHGLYNN and STELLAR STORY, and he is a bit more experienced than some.

NO ORDINARY JOE is the shortest-priced British runner and was certainly found by Racing X after his staying-on third lto. However, as with all Nicky Henderson horses this week, there is a big note of caution. The stable have pulled SIR GINO and SHANAGH BOB, so there is obviously something going around.

BETTER DAYS AHEAD was one who many thought could be a Graded animal in time, and his fourth to SLADE STEEL in the Grade 2 Navan Novice Hurdle is good form. He was also second to ASIAN MASTER lto, who has since run well in the Supreme, so a mark of 140 could be workable for him.

OCASTLE DES MOTTES was the big Mullins hope for last month’s Betfair Hurdle but he bombed out – connections are hoping a new trip and the run under his belt will help him. He won over 18 furlongs in France, so he should stay.

Another in JP McManus silks for David Pipe is THANKSFORTHEHELP. He bolted up in a Pertemps Qualifier at Chepstow last season and was then sent off 100/30 for the final last year. He was put up as a horse to follow on a preview panel earlier this week but they were worried he wouldn’t get in – he does, and he could be the overlooked one.

Verdict: No strong view but we quite like BETTER DAYS AHEAD for a modest ew play.

RISK ON

13.30 STORM HEART & ETHICAL DIAMOND EW

14.10 L’EAU DU SUD & SO SCOTTISH EW

14.50 GIDLEIGH PARK EW

15.30 GDC

16.10 ITS ON THE LINE

16.50 DINOBLUE & ADG EW

17.30 BETTER DAYS AHEAD 

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