Equinties - going Down Under

Gm Equinauts

On Monday, we spoke about the fact that VAUBAN could get a nice weight for the Melbourne Cup after a promising (but not too exciting) run behind KYPRIOS in the Irish St Leger.

Well, the weights were released yesterday, and that is exactly what has happened.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NEXT STOP, MELBOURNE

Last year’s plunge horse VAUBAN has just 1lb (0.5kg) extra to carry in this year’s renewal after a Lonsdale Cup victory and a fourth in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

Willie Mullins will, most probably, be happy with that result, and he is likely to change up his preparation ahead of their trip down under having sited that as one of the issues behind last year’s disappointment.

Speaking to ANZ Bloodstock earlier this month, David Casey, assistant trainer to Mullins, said: “Last year’s defeat was probably a combination of stuff. We probably got the tactics wrong with him that day riding him prominent, it seemed that everything was sort of coming from the back.

“He’s going to go down on the second shipment this year instead of the first like last year. That was always the thinking, to give him more runs here and send him later rather than not have a run and send him down earlier.

“We were trying to build the fitness into him down there last year, whereas this time he’s going to have run more on the track.”

This explains his busier season to date. Rather than the two Flat runs after a jumps campaign, the last final run of which in early August, he’s had a good break coming into this season before five Flat runs, finishing in the middle of September.

At 8/1, is he the one to be with, or are there any other snips that could be interesting at this stage?

At 14/1, ILLINOIS could well be the one to give a second look if he goes (we don’t know his next target).

He has 5lbs less to carry than VAUBAN and he has countless bits of Classic form to boast. Still, there’s plenty of time to go and even more time to contemplate a bet on VAUBAN.

ARC FOURTH RETIRED

Moving on to a bit of stud news, AL HAKEEM - fourth in the 2022 Arc behind ALPINISTA - has been retired and will now stand at Haras Du Bouquetot.

The SIYOUNI entire has run into the likes of VADENI, TORQUATOR TASSO, MODERN GAMES, and SIMCA MILLE during his career, though that illusive Group 1 victory never came his way.

He suffered an injury to his leg between 2023 and 2024, but he returned to the track this year to win the Group 3 Prix Gontaut-Biron on his last start.

Rather than continuing on this season, connections have pulled stumps on his racing career ahead of what could be a fruitful stallion career.

His trainer, Jean-Claude Rouget, said: "Al Hakeem is a horse of great heart and courage, and his ability to recover from such a serious injury and return to Group-winning form speaks volumes about his character. He has all the attributes of a future champion sire.”

15.30 LISTED JOHN MUSKER FILLIES’ STAKES

A horse that plenty of people will be keen to see out for the second time is ESTRANGE, David O’Meara’s insanely impressive Goodwood debut winner.

She is set to contest Yarmouth’s John Musker Fillies’ Stakes, so we thought we would preview todays race, instead of our usual ‘a look ahead’ feature.

Having opened up at 11/4, she has been backed into 15/8 and is most likely going to go off strong favourite.

Out of an unraced half-sister to the St Leger winner LOGICIAN, her pedigree speaks for itself and she delivered on debut - the field strung out like washing at Goodwood.

The ground was dep that day with many in the race, on pedigree, needing it quicker so one would have to be weary of the form on initial viewing, but it was hard not to be very impressed by what she did on debut.

Equally, SEA JUST IN TIME was very impressive on debut when winning at Newmarket in May.

However, she has had two more runs, one that was disappointing and other when priced at 2/5 in a Kempton novice. Was Haggas’ yard going through a barren patch then? Because if so, and his horses weren’t right, then she can be forgiven and her pedigree isn’t to be underestimated. She is out of an unraced half-sister to Listed winner BEAU IDEAL, making her a full to TRUTHFUL and SEA ON TIME, both trained by Shaggas, who are rated 89 and 100 respectively.

Her Kempton form has been franked - BEELEY, second, has since dotted up at Ffos Las and PRECIOUS JEWEL, who she beat at Newmarket on debut, recently placed in a Listed race at Saint-Cloud.

LADY BOBA has to give weight away to the three-year-olds, but she has solid form in the book. She finished ahead of MISTRAL STAR at the start of the year who has since finished fourth in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks as well as finishing ahead of SEA THEME who has won a Listed race. With form alongside the now Group 2 winner TIFFANY as well, she should be considered in this field.

RAINBOWS EDGE, bred by the late Queen, adds a Royal element into proceedings for John & Thady Gosden.She won her first two engagements and then finished second in Listed company lto, a race that has seen SEA OF ROSES come out of and win a Listed contest. She is progressing nicely, but this looks like deep waters to be stepping into and a marked improvement would be needed.

KARMOLOGY probably sets the standard as a proper medium-level Listed-quality horse. She’s placed in a couple of Listed races now, but she’ll probably forever be remembered for turning over the 1/25-shot DOOM in a two-runner affair at Ripon last year.

She’s progressed from 83 to 98, so she’s on an upward curve, but a big step forward here would be needed. It’s not out of the realms of possibility, however.

At the much bigger prices, DORA MILAJE could outrun her odds. She was disappointing lto, but the form of her fourth in the Listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract is working out well as the third, ELIM, came close to landing a Group 3 on the weekend.

Verdict: Despite looking so impressive on debut, the ground is very different for ESTRANGE today so we’ll take her on with a fast ground pedigree in SEA JUST IN TIME. She might have bounced at Goodwood but made it up on her third start. Any progression could see her go close with the ground bang in her favour.

RISK ON

No bets in the newsletter yesterday however our new guy Norm produced another dud on his X account. He’s not worried and will be back soon.

The gamble of the day will play out in the Kelso bumper as soon to be fave, EXPRESS RUN, has been obliterated from big double figures. It’s one of the weakest bumpers you’ll find and won’t take a lot of winning - we hope it lands for connections!

Our gambles today will be across both codes, flat and jumps:

14.50 ROCK DORO, 15.00 NIGHTWALKER 16.05 ROI DE FRANCE

Small 5/1 treble on the hot pots who all look hard to beat today. Single on the 15.00.

18.05 HEART ABOVE

Market headed by weak fave FAIRMAC, not bred for jumps and should be taken on. HEART ABOVE perhaps the one with the weight and recent form, especially back on good ground. Interestingly his mum was a good Kelso winner over same trip. Small bet at 10/3 in a low grade race.

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