Equinties - Glorious Goodwood day 4

Gm Equinauts

We should have max bet ORNELLAIA yesterday, we even said ‘should just win’ …

But betting is a long game and the prog (bet less and bet singles with conviction) works so we’re fine.

Let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 300 stables today, top of the BGP private league comes golfing with BGP Capital.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

The Racing Blogger has made his thoughts clear in his own little roundup of Goodwood so far.

He's probably right about the Goodwood Cup and Richmond Stakes but bar that we actually think there's been some fine (and entertaining) racing.

On day 1 there was the gamble on LORD RIDDIFORD who landed the hat trick:

We saw racing X’s banker of the meeting (for most) KINROSS oblige:

On day 2 when the ground was at its worst we had a fascinating renewal of the Molcomb Stakes with BIG EVS providing big rev for Mick Appleby (and we’ll add PUROSANGUE proving that he's a bit of a weapon and will be a force back on better ground):

In the Sussex states we had the this seasons unbeaten PADDINGTON prove that he is one of the best horses in the world and can go on any ground:

We saw RHOSCOLYN land the gamble for the Horse Watchers:

We saw VANDEEK van-dick all over his rivals in the Richmond yesterday giving hope to all race fans he’s a future star:

Gary Moore’s redemption with NOVUS, whether you backed it or not everyone loved to see it:

And we saw a smart filly yesterday in ORNELLAIA, which luckily we were on.

So all in all, yeh the fancied big guns like BLUE ROSE CEN might not have delivered with with others springing surprises, but that’s racing and that's why we love it.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

15.00 GOLDEN MILE (HERITAGE HANDICAP)

One of the first big ‘heritage’ handicaps of Glorious Goodwood is the Golden Mile Handicap over the one-mile trip on the Sussex Downs and LATTAM is the current favourite for William Haggas and Tom Marquand having won lto.

He has been a consistent performer this season following his Irish Cambridgeshire victory off a mark of 87 on soft-to-heavy in March, so he is one who will enjoy conditions off s still workable mark.

Richard Hannon’s TACARIB BAY is another who will seemingly handle conditions today is the ground is still on the tacky side, as described by jockeys yesterday.

AWAAL has been a loud performer for Simon & Ed Crisford who are already off the mark at Goodwood thanks to the impressive VANDEEK yesterday.

Off 105, he was third in the Bunbury Cup lto, form that took a few knocks recently thanks to the poor performances of BLESS HIM and ROPEY GUEST, so the jury is still out as to whether he is well-handicapped.

Looking at ‘well-handicapped’ horses, BLUE FOR YOU is officially three pounds ‘well in’ off 102 as he is due to be rated 105 very soon thanks to his York win lto.

He was second in this race last year off a lower mark on good-to-firm ground, so in conditions that is likely to suit today and obviously in good form, he could be an interesting E/W angle.

And of course, RHOSCOLYN, a winner earlier this week, is back out with a seven-pound penalty and hoping to pick up more prize money for connections.

Verdict: TACARIB BAY is the each way play here. He ran a stormer last time at Ascot where he ‘won’ his groups own little race on the wrong side of the track by a couple of lengths. He's on a handy mark today to be able to get stuck in and in the mix, he acts on soft ground.

15.35 GROUP 2 KING GEORGE STAKES

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS has struggled to get her head in front this year but she’s a three time Gr1 winner and was placed twice at Royal Ascot, clearly the one to beat dropped in class.

EQUALITY has won twice on good to soft. He’s been really improved this year, sprinters can do that at 4/5 years of age. Won Gr3 lto. Stall 1 could be tricky

LADIES CHURCH by CHURCHILL prefers top of the ground but is a really solid Gr2 performer. Not out of it.

MAKAROVA is a homebred for Brightwalton Stud by ACCLAMATION o/o the SEA THE STARS mare VESNINA who has also produced Gr3 placed NINA BAILARINA. She’s got a lot to find today but at least ground shouldn’t be an issue.

EQUILATERAL the second produce of EQUINAO in the line up is probably unlikely to start considering he’s been a non runner twice recently due to ‘unsuitable ground’.

NYMPHADORA has enjoyed a great season winning twice including lto in a listed at York. Ground won’t be an issue. Ew claims

SILKY WILKY ran well lto to be second to NYMPHADORA on good to soft, and has won on good to soft but he has always been well held in this company and it’s unlikely his ability will all of a sudden change today. Needs a PB to get on to the rostrum.

WHITE LAVENDAR doesn’t mind getting her toe in, she won a Gr3 two starts back on ‘very soft’ going. Behind LADIES CHURCH lto in a Gr3. Ew claims at a juicy price.

RAASEL, KERDOS (wants quicker ground) and PONNTOS need a huge performance to trouble the judge today.

Verdict: HIGHFIELD PRINCESS almost looks max bet material, she should be winning this by 5 lengths. NYMPHADORA and WHITE LAVENDER are the ew plays but we’ll full bet HP.

16.10 GROUP 3 KINGS PLATE GLORIOUS STAKES

A stiff 1m4 in testing conditions see’s only 7 go to post but the market saying only one to note.

Haggas’ beloved HAMISH heads the market here at odds on 4/5. Everyone knows Haggas loves his horse and his wife Maureen rides him. He’s just a great servant to the yard and comes alive in his favoured soft conditions which he gets today.

MIMIKYU reps Gosden and Frankie, a a trainer jockey combo that must always be feared. She's fallen short in his last few attempts at Group level and her last win was in a fillies only race which probably gives her too much to find today against the strong lad in HAMISH.

Haggas is doubly repped with CANDLEFORD in third fave for this race. He's a solid horse by KINGMAN, a good Royal Ascot winner but has done nothing really of note since then and again like MIMIKYU, has a bit to find on HAMISH.

Baldings was fancied at Royal Ascot but was given a bad ride and he finished about 13 lengths behind HAMISH at York last time so you'd think that he'd need a miracle to be able to reverse the form with the favourite.

The others are so far out of it it's not worth mentioning.

Verdict: This really is HAMISH’s to lose but the ground is drying all the time which does go against him so perhaps not banker material.

STATS OF THE DAY

CALLING THE WIND goes for Hughes and Callan in the Goodwood 13.50. Jock/trainer combo 3 from 5 all time.

Balding is 2 from 2 in the 17.45 at HQ and sends INFINITY BLUE for the hat trick. Leap of faith to back given last performance but Baldings improve massively for their first run. Haggas fave is 1/3 though… be some upset.

RISK ON

17.20 MASO BASTIE

Looks a solid ew to nothing here as his Nottingham win makes him still well in vs this opposition. Full bet 5’s ew.

18.20 SWISS STAR

Should be better than what she's up against today. Half bet 11/10 money or double with HIGHFIELD PRINCESS to make a 5/2 double.

There might be one more to be tweeted.