Equinties - Glorious Goodwood day 3

Gm Equinauts

We were pretty close to pulling off the slop acca yesterday.

We come into our own in extreme conditions, as BGP Capital found out yesterday.

Let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 300 stables today, top of the BGP private league comes golfing with BGP Capital.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

Goodwood? More like Glastonbury

Goodwood turned into a real slop fest yesterday as the rain hit the track hard and the horses ran it deep into the ground.

Some big prices opened up play in THE GOAT for Andrew Balding and MAGICAL SUNSET for Amo. Amo very rarely leave a big meeting without a prize these days.

After a fairly quiet season by his standards, Balding made it a good day yesterday as his rocket filly FLORA OF BERMUDA breezed in to win easily.

Watching that hurt, we tipped her the last twice and knew she was good but the ground was just too much of a question mark.

The gamble of the day was landed in the lucky last by the shrewd owners of RHOSCOLYN.

He was so well in he literally couldn't lose. Happy punter owners:

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

14.25 GROUP 2 RICHMOND STAKES

VANDEEK went from a 42k yearling to a 625k Breeze Up and he (nearly) justified that price increase on his debut where he missed the start and then came home to win cosily. Draw is a negative although FLORA DE BERMUDA won from stall 2 yesterday.

SKETCH was a 100k yearling and his debut was seriously good, he looked like he was going a stride quicker than the rest of the field the whole way and then quickened off it. Improvement is likely considering that was his first run which is scary and if his inexperience in a race like this doesn’t waver he’s the one to beat. Good draw too. His mums brother won this race.

BALLYMOUNT BOY is by CAMACHO, he won on good to soft lto at Hamilton so ground shouldn’t be an issue. This is a big step up in class and I doubt he’s got it in him, especially from stall 1.

BOBSLEIGH shouldn’t be overlooked although the ground is an issue. He was 6th in the Coventry, not beaten far, and was disappointing lto in the super sprint. Another step up in class today.

HALA EMARAATY was 4th lto to KYLIAN in a Listed. For a ome reason people were wetting themselves after seeing KYLIAN win so well and thought he was a good thing yesterday but we found the winner. This lad needs a big step up today, he’s not an 89 rated horse and yet needs to be running to a mark of high 90/low 100s.

TOCA MADERA is going the right way, he ran really well (just touched off for second) lto beating PUROSANGUE who did the form no harm yesterday. Ground a worry.

NAZALAN finished in front of HALA EMARAATY lto but that was over 5f, the step up in trip might be ok as he is o/o a NEW APPROACH mare but it will be tested on this ground today. Frankie will have the rail to help. Needs a big step up.

Verdict: VANDEEK looked good lto but so did SKETCH and at the prices, with the draw in his favour and ground unlikely to be an issue he is the one who gets the vote. His mums brother ABLE SPEED won this very race in 2008 so you'd think they've have this in mind for a while.

15.00 GROUP 3 GORDON STAKES

Is this a St Leger trial?

DESERT HERO would be a huge win for The King; the excitement for a potential Classic winner if he were to go on to Doncaster would be immense. Looking at his 2yo form he’ll like the underfoot conditions.

CANBERRA LEGEND is capable of making a splash upped in trip but maybe the ground has now gone against him. A cosy winner at the start of the year, but that form hasn’t worked out particularly well.

CHESSPIECE was a decent 3rd in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and then backed it up with a Listed win at Hamilton. Can’t help but think serious improvement is needed.

ARTISTIC STAR won on soft ground as a juvenile. He is lightly raced, like a few of these are and is unexposed. A good third in the King Edward at Royal Ascot reads well and Beckett in good form.

ESPIONAGE looks like he’ll relish the ground. He was a close second in a Group 1 as a 2yo in France and made a winning return at Rosscommon this year. Ryan Moore was sent there for just the one ride which is telling.

BURDETT ROAD is the only runner with an entry in the St Leger. A rating of 98 suggests he needs to improve quite a few pounds, ESPIONAGE is rated 112, however, he looks like he is improving and on pedigree he won’t mind soft ground, but whether he likes heavy is another question.

Verdict: ARTISTIC STAR looks dangerous but boring as it is, our preference is for ESPIONAGE but not a betting race for us.

15.35 GROUP 1 NASSAU STAKES

Six classy fillies are set to head under starters orders for the Group 1 Nassau Stakes and the in-form BLUE ROSE CEN tops the market at a shade of odds-on.

She is unbeaten in her last five runs, a run that has included success in both the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks, so she is a worthy favourite considering that form in slower conditions.

Furthermore, from her Guineas victory, the third, SAUTERNE, was just touched off in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild on the weekend and the fourth, KELINA, has won a Group 2 since, so she looks slightly formidable for favourite backers.

The next best in the market is NASHWA who got back to winning ways last time out at Newmarket in the Falmouth Stakes and Hollie Doyle is bullish!

That was her first start at a mile since her novice win at Haydock in April 2022 and she now steps back up to 1m2f – she has windy form on soft ground and looks a bit inconsistent for a 2/1 shot.

One who beat NASHWA earlier this season in the Group 2 Prix Corrida was ABOVE THE CURVE for Joseph O’Brien and Ryan Moore.

Her best form does come in slower conditions based on that win and her third in the Prix de l’Opera last season on very soft, so today’s conditions should suit and she is well-regarded with the team at Joseph’s.

AL HUSN is another who beat John & Thady Gosden’s 2022 Prix de Diane winner this season having taken NASHWA’s scope on the all-weather at Newcastle last time out.

Although that may not have been the best version of NASHWA, Roger Varian’s four-year-old by DUBAWI did well to pick her off under Jim Crowley and her win on good-to-soft at Newmarket in October shows that she handles a bit of dig in the ground, though she needs a career-best effort to win and looks a bit outclassed.

Outclassed is a word that can also be used for NEVER ENDING STORY, Aidan O’Brien’s second-string, as she has been beaten by BLUE ROSE CEN three times already and by NASHWA last time out, so she looks up against it.

As for Jack Channon’s CAERNARFON, she, like NEVER ENDING STORY and BLUE ROSE CEN, get the three-year-old weight-for-age allowance and should handle the ground based on her win on soft at Newmarket in the Listed Montrose Fillies’ Stakes last October.

She was third in the Oaks behind SOUL SISTER, so a return to the slower stuff could see her rekindle her best ability and hit the frame under Connor Beasley

Verdict: We like BLUE ROSE CEN and thinks she wins today with ABOVE THE CURVE following her home proving the ew play at 9’s.

STATS OF THE DAY

No stand out stand out stats today.

RISK ON

17.00 A TICKATICKATIMING

This is basically a sloppy bumper and this lad will love the slop. Already a bumper winner in the NH sphere too. Got BGP Capital 10’s, at 11/2 she is still a full bet ew, should be a bet to nothing.

17.20 ORNELLAIA

Form from last time franked and she looks like she should just win this. Full bet 11/4.

Small sloppy place acca on 13.50 COVERDALE, 14.25 SKETCH, 15.35 BLUE ROSE CEN (win), 16.45 METAL MERCHANT and 17.20 ORNELLAIA pays >30’s.