Equinties - four Derby's

Gm Equinauts

Europe is in a heatwave, Paris on red alert (pussies) and the British are moaning (classic).

But the forecast is dark and the rain is coming.

Bring on the slop bets! There are so many horses who are yet to appear and they’ll not only eat up the ground, they’ll destroy all these fast ground horses who’ve had it their own way for way too long now.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

FOUR DERBYS

It started at Chantilly with CAMILLE PISARRO before LAMBOURN landed the spoils in Epsom and at the Curragh. Ballydoyle have wrapped up three major European Group 1 Derbys this season, and they could be seeking a fourth this weekend with TRINITY COLLEGE in the German Derby.

Aidan O’Brien initially mentioned America for the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes winner, but the DUBAWI colt is off to Hamburg-Horn on Sunday in an attempt to make Coolmore the first owner to win all four European Group 1 Derbys in the same year.

So, who could TRINITY COLLEGE take on this weekend?

CONVERGENT, third to LAMBOURN in the Group 3 Chester Vase Stakes, is entered for Karl Burke, and it looks like he needs slightly softer ground as he was a non-runner at Royal Ascot (Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes) due to the conditions.

Richard Hannon could also be represented with NIGHTIME DANCER. Connections chanced him at Epsom and he finished a fine eighth, beaten 10 lengths. That’s another horse with LAMBOURN form, though he is by GHAIYYATH out of a SEA THE STARS mare, so any cut in the ground could be a worry.

What about some of the German representatives? Admittedly, our knowledge isn’t that extensive, but just by knowing some of the potential entries, we can look at their form and pedigrees.

DELGARDO won a German Derby Trial in May, so this is a natural step forward for his season. By BEST SOLUTION, he did the donkey work from a prominent position and had the race wrapped up by the time the second started to close. He also did this on his seasonal reappearance, so he could improve.

PATH OF SOLDIER also won a Derby Trial, this time a Group 3 contest at Dusseldorf. He ran to an RPR of 111 in the Group 3 Bavarian Classic in early May, and he is a half-brother to PANJARI, a CAMELOT gelding who won two Listed races in Germany before transferring to Paul Nicholls.

The other horse we’ll mention is ZUCKERHUT, who is a stablemate of PATH OF SOLDIER, and ZUCKERHUT is actually a Group 2 winner. He’s by ALMANZOR, and his best offspring since 2021 is LASSAUT (Group 2 placed) and CASTLE WAY (2023 Great Voltigeur runner-up), so that wouldn’t inspire too much confidence. He’s also standing in New Zealand for 30,000$NZ (£13,314.90).

However, looking away from the sire, he did look comfortable at the line when winning a Group 2 lto, and the front two pulled clear. He is still wildly unexposed.
So, there it is, our little look at the German Derby.

AUSSIE RAID

It’s been a slightly different start to ASFOORA’s European charge this season. Last year, connections were keen to get a race into her before the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, and that involved her running in the Group 2 Temple Stakes. She came on for it and then won at Ascot. Simple.

This year, she came to Ascot straight from Australia, and she didn’t run a great race. The word on the street was that she wasn’t working amazingly at home, though she did still finish fifth. She was slowing up at the line a little bit, in fairness.

Connections are keen to keep pursuing the European dream with ASFOORA, and that continues with a trip to Glorious Goodwood.

Henry Dwyer, her trainer, said: "She pulled up a bit flat after Ascot with the heat and everything, so we opted to give her two weeks off and now she's got four weeks to Goodwood.

"I think her fitness was fine. It was more the conditions that got her beaten. She loomed up like she was going to win but it was a bit of a testing last furlong for her.
"She ran as well as we could have hoped given the circumstances, so she'll just keep getting better over the summer as she acclimatises more.

"She'll come back in on Friday. She's been at Luca and Sara Cumani's place just outside Newmarket, so she's had two nice weeks on the grass and is ready to go again."

It’ll be the Nunthorpe after Goodwood, before maybe the Flying Five and then the Prix de l’Abbaye. After that, well, she will probably go off into retirement.
If you were a fan of hers last year, the next few months could be very profitable or the opposite. Good luck!

WEATHER WATCH

And finally, we got the early confirmations for Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse yesterday, and the race could be a cracker!

Yes, it may lack that ‘superstar’ who has been battling in these kind of races for years, but it has one of the highest-rated horses in training (OMBUDSMAN) with the likes of ANMAAT, ALMAQAM, SOSIE, and WHITE BIRCH taking on the younger brigade of CAMILLE PISSARRO, DELACROIX, HOTAZHELL, RULING COURT, EXPANDED, and STANHOPE GARDENS.

Interesting, nonetheless.

One can imagine that all of the field will head to Sandown on Saturday, but there could be one horse who may miss this engagement due to the ground.
That horse is, of course, ANMAAT.

Owen Burrows said: “He needs rain to run. We’re having a look and there is a few showers about Wednesday and Thursday, but he would need a drop of rain.

“We’re on weather-watch a bit so he’s by no means a definite runner.

“The showers are so hit and miss. It feels like you could get a real good thunder storm as it is so hot and muggy but you might only get 2-4mm and Andrew Cooper (clerk of the course) would be putting all that and more on with watering, so that’s not going to make much difference.

“We just felt because it is so hot if there are a few thunderstorms it’s worth leaving him in but he would need a nice drop of rain – more than what they are forecasting.

“He’s come out of Ascot well but this is just two and a half weeks later so I wouldn’t want to be running him on fast ground again.”
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STATS OF THE DAY

The Best’s run MY BOY HARRY in Brighton’s 15.10. He only won last Tuesday but the yard have a 40% strike rate when running winners again within seven days compared to 8% otherwise! Ground perfect.

Alan King runs FINEST VIEW in the 18.18. He is3 from 7 in handicap chases at course and has booked Tom Cannon who owns a strike rate of just over 1 in 3 at Stratford for King. Again, the ground is perfect for this girl.

RISK ON

One rare Irish bet today:

20.08 SKY CAPTAIN

Unraced by good message for it, reportedly working well with a horse called BUBBLE GUM. BUBBLE GUM ran 10lbs below par last time, so that homework might have been flattering. We’ve backed a couple of good messages for debutants from this yard so going with it. Standard stake at 13/8.