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Equinties - form lines
BGP Capital
November 20, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Declarations for Saturday were in this morning and one notable move was Mullins declaring LOSSIEMOUTH in the Morgiana instead of ANZADAM.
We assumed LOSSIEMOUTH would be returning to Leopardstown to defend her Hatton’s Grace crown, especially given it’s the same trip as the mares race at Cheltenham,
but you know what they say about assumption being the mother of all f*ckups!
We can’t believe it’s only November and we’re already playing Mullins Bingo with so many questions left unanswered. What are the plans for ANZADAM and is LOSSIEMOUTH replacing STATEMAN as their new no. 1 for the champion hurdle!?
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
GREAT FORM
It’s hard to argue that ALEXEI isn’t a good animal. He bolted up at Ascot two starts ago, and he did something very similar in the Greatwood Hurdle. Who knows how high he could climb, but a lot will depend on his next official rating from the handicapper.
He won off 134, and he ran to an RPR of 149. We’d imagine he could be somewhere 145 by the time next Tuesday rolls around.
With this in mind, ALEXEI would have to be considered as a potential Graded horse. He’s probably only going to have one more run in a handicap off a mark like that, and if he went close/won that, Graded races would have to be next. Which handicap could he go to? Probably the Ladbroke at Ascot in December – that would make the most sense.
But, what about the horse that beat him in the Welsh Champion Hurdle earlier this season? That was, of course, CELTIC DINO, and he is a little bit of a talking horse due to his unexposed nature. He was meant to run in the Greatwood Hurdle, but the ground went for him, which was a shame. However, Sam Thomas is still looking to get him out soon, and he is set to test Graded company in the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle on Saturday. He said: "He's still in the Fighting Fifth, but as long as the rain stays away from now, he'll be going to Ascot on Saturday. It was a great performance in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and it's always nice to see when the form is boosted so strongly, so we're wanting to have a crack back in Graded company with him again.
"Ours fingers are crossed that the ground stays as it is or on the nice side, as we're wanting to run. He's got to prove he's up to this level and this'll see whether we can shoot high this season, but he's improving all the time."
So, if Joe Tizzard is thinking about Graded races in time, he will be able to look at CELTIC DINO’s run this weekend with plenty of interest. Furthermore, when ALEXEI took on CELTIC DINO at Chepstow in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, we’re pretty sure ALEXEI wasn’t fit, and CELTIC DINO looked off for his life. There is scope to think that ALEXEI could actually be better than CELTIC DINO based in this, which only makes CELTIC DINO’s run this weekend all the more interesting.
It won’t be an easy race with WODHOOH, POTTERS CHARM, CRAMBO, TAKE NO CHANCES, and NEMEAN LION, but he definitely deserves his chance in the contest.
FORM HIT
From a form line to follow, to a form line in question, yesterday, saw both DIG DEEP and GEE FORCE FLYER beaten at odds-on. As if with horse racing, nothing is ever this simple, and they both finished second. To be fair, they didn’t lose much in defeat, and who knows, they could both have big targets in mind which means they don’t necessarily have to win these type of races right now. They are novice hurdlers who should continue to improve, and both sets of connections do really like their respective horses, so maybe a bit of patience can be afforded in their cases.
If we were to take a few things out of the race, DIG DEEP wants three miles as soon as they feel it’s right to do so, GEE FORCE FLYER travelled with plenty of promise, and SALLYVILLE LADY shaped like many Dan Skelton-trained novice hurdlers have this season… eye-catchingly.
This does go to show that hype doesn’t always provide instant reward, and this point is relevant ahead of what we are about to mention now. Jamie Snowden’s yard are in great form currently. It’s as if he can’t do much wrong, and a lot of his horses have shaped with promise, none more so than FRESH PERSPECTIVE, who bolted up at Fontwell in October and then landed a Class 2 introductory hurdle at Wetherby on Saturday.
In his stable tour on At The Races after the Fontwell win, Snowden said: “He won an English point-to-point, a bumper and has now won a novice hurdle. He won very nicely over hurdles down at Fontwell but didn’t jump particularly well and has a lot more to learn. However, he is a smashing horse and I think quite highly of him.”
And yesterday, Gavin Sheehan had his say on the horse. He said that the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle could be right for him, and that he is basically a machine on the gallops a home.
His jumping needs to sharpen up, clearly, but all the right signs are there from those who know him best. If you happened to miss his win in all the action we had on Saturday, we don’t blame you, and he’s certainly one to watch.
RACE OF THE MONTH
Has anyone looked at the John Durkan at Punchestown on Sunday yet? We imagine plenty of our readers have, because wow, what a race it could be.
Willie Mullins loves to start his Gold Cup horses in this race, we should get to see FACT TO FILE, GAELIC WARRIOR, LECKY WATSON, GRANGECLARE WEST, NICK ROCKETT, I AM MAXIMUS, and JAMES DU BERLAIS. Add into the mix the returning FASTORSLOW and the reigning Gold CUP winner INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, and that makes a fantastic contest.
There is only one question to ask ahead of Sunday, though? Who’s ready to win?
It’s a very pertinent question because the John Durkan is the first stop of the season for all of these high-profile horses, and it’s over 2m4f, which may not suit some horses. Here’s how we see it. Firstly, Mark Walsh is set to ride FACT TO FILE, according to Gavin Cromwell in his William Hill blog.
Without trying to rule INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN completely out, this might just say enough about his chances. He’s an ultimate stayer, so this isn’t his trip, and he showed this when finishing seventh of eight in this race last year. Yes, coming into last year’s race, he was only a Grade 1-winning novice/Kim Muir winner rather than being the reigning Gold Cup champion, so he can’t exactly drift like a barge and finish 36 lengths off the pace, but these simply aren’t his optimal conditions, and he does tend to come on for his first run of the year. The same can be said about all of Cromwell’s horses so far this season, to be honest.
So, what about FACT TO FILE then? He won last year’s race, and he really is a top, top Grade 1 horse. He is one of the top five 2m4f/3m chasers in the game (at least two of the other top five are in this race). He won this race last year, but SPILLANE’S TOWER genuinely hasn’t done much to frank the form, and GALOPIN DES CHAMPS wasn’t ready. One could suggest that FASTORSLOW was the same last year as well.
We’re not trying to say last year’s race was bad, obviously it was good, but it wasn’t probably as gold plated as it looks on the surface.
And then there’s GAELIC WARRIOR. He was screaming out for three miles last season, and once he got it in the Bowl, he fairly hacked up. He obliged in the Oaksey Chase, and Patrick Mullins seems to think he’ll win the Gold Cup, which is fairly bullish.
It’s worth remembering that he was soundly beaten by SOLNESS on seasonal reappearance last year, and he will probably be trained to the minute for the King George. He is probably the more speedy type of the Mullins horses.
Finally for the ‘big four’, FASTORSLOW is back. This is his first run back from injury, so there is an obvious worry about him.
We imagine that he will just be “fit enough” based on this video with Martin Brassil. His target will be the King George, and Brassil won’t want to have him 100% for his first run back after a year, surely.
Remember, the year he won the John Durkan, he was friendless in the market. If you couldn’t tell by our rough description there, it is wide-open due to the race conditions and the lack of race fitness. That’s why it’s a must-watch on Sunday!
RISK ON
The race of the day is the 12.35 at Warwick, do NOT miss this one, it’s like a mini Supreme which we’re sure we’ll be dissecting tomorrow.
On a tough days racing, we like only one today based purely on pedigree:
14.20 JEMS LILLY
Ex-Irish mare now with Derham who is in good form. You won’t miss her, she a lovely looking grey who owns a brilliant pedigree (a half to ANGELS BREATH) by WALK IN THE PARK meaning she could be the best in the field here if she’s fit and ready. 9/2 ew.
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