Equinties - forecasting a good time

Author

BGP Capital
June 11, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Top hats and tails, car park picnics, big cash bets and the fastest horses in the world - there’s nothing quite like the best flat show on earth, Royal Ascot.

And it’s only one week to go.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ANGRY SKIES

Yesterday marked eight days until the start of Royal Ascot, the worlds marquee meeting of the British Flat season.

As such, a few people were looking for an official going update from the track to, presumably, try formulate a few early bets.

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin’s tweet lead to a MM amusing response from rival site Timeform’s David Johnson…

Which then lead to one upset Tony:

Racing X is brilliant sometimes… well, brilliant for those only witness to embarrassing interactions between fully grown men.

Anyway, back to the serious business, the official line from Ascot was that the ground is currently good, good to firm in places, though we could be in for an official going in the softer regions by the time the Queen Anne gets underway on Tuesday.

So why bother trying to guess?

When ground is THE most Important factor when looking at a race (for us anyway), the best bet is to wait until the morning so you can decide with confidence (and get a bet on!).

Even Ascot’s clerk of the course Chris Stickel’s doesn’t have a clue - “Thursday night, Friday and at times over the weekend and into early next week it is an unsettled picture”, though “the volume of what might come as part of that is hard to predict at this stage”.

WAIT FOR THE DAY, TONY

NO MAKING FRIENDS

Less than a day after Ballydoyle announced the Coral-Eclipse as CITY OF TROY’s next target, connections of AMBIENTE FRIENDLY confirmed that the Irish Derby would be the next race for this year’s Epsom Derby runner-up.

Connections had all but admitted that they were looking to avoid Aidan O’Brien’s Group 1-winning son of JUSTIFY on their next start having ran into him at Epsom at the start of the month.

But, yesterday we got official confirmation from owner Tim Gredley, who said: “We're not going to Ireland because City Of Troy is going elsewhere, we genuinely want to keep him to a mile and a half and it's a Classic.

"All the conditions are in his favour and we think the Curragh will help him a bit like Epsom, whereas Sandown is a bit flatter and a hard race over a mile and a quarter at this point in his career is maybe not what he wants."

After the announcement, he came into strong favouritism for the race at 5/4 with LOS ANGELES at 7/4 in the market.

MAKING WAVES

One interesting point that came out of Racing TV’s Luck On Sunday revolves around Wathnan Racing, though it was slightly different than the usual news that we expect from them.

The story involved MAKE HASTE, Diego Dias’ Naas maiden winner who is Berkshire-bound for the Group 2 Queen Mary on the second day of Royal Ascot.

The BLUE POINT filly stormed to a three-and-a-quarter-length success and Dias revealed on Luck On Sunday that Wathnan Racing wanted to buy her for £760,000, though her owners refused the offer!

760k!??? Mad to refuse that sort of sum for the type of animal who’s favourite thing to do is get a leg (go lame) but fair play to connections who clearly don’t need that sort of cash.

Obviously, trainer Dias is very excited for Ascot next week, as he said: "We did expect her to run well as we always held her in very high regard. Since the first time she started work, she showed us plenty and she always seemed a smart filly.

"She has plenty of speed and a great stride. She has a great turn of foot. When you ask her for a change of gear, she can do it very quick. She will go to the Queen Mary and we're very hopeful she can make the step up in grade."

This is the beauty of Royal Ascot as these Group races, especially the juvenile contests, attract plenty of horses, from different background and a mixture of yards. Quite different to Cheltenham where unless your surname is Mullins you’ve got no chance.

Roll on next week!

RISK ON

Track yesterdays selection MECCAS SYMPHONY - was a pedigree bet backed up by a bit of word, will be a winner. Bin the SMP horses until you see them over hurdles!

Todays bets are:

14.00 CAYMAN TAI

Decent runs in second and possibly just ‘bumped into one’ last time out at Windsor. Set to give first season sire EARTHLIGHT another winner. Much brighter price on the exchange - win and tp bet to cover win bet should be bump into another. Split stake 4.0 & 1.7 tp.

16.37 CROWN OF INDIA 

Counting on improvement for ground and trip hike. STEEL TIGER is market rival but looks a bit of a fruit loop. Same bet as above - split stake 4.7 & 1.7 tp.