Equinties - follow Chaldean

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BGP Capital
May 24, 2023

Equinties

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Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

SCOTSMAN in Ireland 

Yesterday, the Irish 2000 Guineas received a big British big boost by way of Paul & Oliver Cole’s decision to supplement ROYAL SCOTSMAN. Bullish!

The GLENEAGLES colt has placed in his last two Group 1s, both behind CHALDEAN in the Dewhurst and Guineas, and now comes into Saturday’s contest with the best form. As expected, he is the clear 5/2 favourite. 

It looks like the confidence behind ROYAL SCOTSMAN is strong as Oliver Cole told the Racing Post “he worked better than ever” yesterday morning. HI ROYAL at 7/2 in the market says the bookies are scared of the CHALDEAN form lines...

and why wouldn't they, it's worked for us!

More: Elsewhere, JACKIE OH, a Naas maiden winner on heavy, was supplemented for the Irish 1000 Guineas by the Coolmore team to give Aidan O’Brien three chances in the Group 1 contest. 

July Cup entries 

Last year’s July Cup was pretty cool. 

And now with less than two months to go until this year’s renewal, the early entries were revealed yesterday and the top stars of the game could turn up to Newmarket. 

Top of that list is HIGHFIELD PRINCESS who was a close second at York lto under a penalty of her first start of the year - back in Group 1 company would be great for her. 

Aidan O’Brien has six in the race - THE  ANTARCTIC is clear on the list following her win over in Ireland recently. 

The interesting entry is last year’s 1000 Guineas winner CACHET for George Boughey who has confirmed his four-year-old star will be campaigned as a sprinter this season. She is also entered for the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot also.

New British Record

This story slipped by us yesterday but we are picking up today as a new British record was set at the Doncaster Spring Store Sale on Monday. 

Goldford Stud's filly by Blue Bresil sold for £210k on Monday, surpassing the £200k sale set at the same sale last year for the most expensive store ever sold in Britain. 

And it wasn’t just the price tag that made this sale so poignant as the filly was bred by the late Richard Aston who passed away earlier this month - the third dam, FORTUNE’S GIRL, was privately bought by Aston in the mid 90s. 

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

15.10 Yarmouth

STATE OF DESIRE is by FRANKEL and cost 400,000gns. The dam won at 2 and the second dam is Gr1 Matron S. winner Emulous.

EL BODON is by CHURCHILL, thread on him here:

CHURCHILL has made a bright start to 2023 and EL BODON cost 150,000gns, half brother to PILLOW TALK who won the Marygate. Dam is a half sister to Gr1 winning sprinter Sands of Mali. May foal but still looks a mature horse.

KHAMSIM is by US sire FLATTER who is starting to make a good name for himself as a sire, Gr1 winner West Coast pops to mind. Nothing to note on turf yet. Cost £195,000, half brother was Listed place this year and dam is a full sister to a Gr1 winner and placed horse in US.

MART is son of Dark Angel o/o a mare who won at 2 and was 4th in the Cheveley Park S. this lad was 130,000gns, he’s a three parts brother to SAAYERR who won the Richmond and a half bro to ORNATE who was second in the Flying Childers. Family of ADVERTISE.

JUMEIRAH BREEZE is by KESSAAR and cost 155,000gns. Owns a very speedy pedigree being a three parts sister to listed scorer GEOCENTRIC and To WAFIJ who was 3rd in the Molecomb. 

Verdict: This is open for debate as these Yarmouth maidens can be pretty good with a lot of Newmarket trainers using the track for their debuts.

We know gamblers linked with the boys in blue have backed the Godolphin horse STATE OF DESIRE and he's got a lovely cross. Bells is very nice, speedy pedigree but trainer is a concern. PILLOW TALK's half bro EL BODON is bred to be very smart but might just improve for the run? As with Margasons -  looks nice and from a speedy pedigree, Margason likes targetting Yarmouth but will it be ready fto? We could even make a case for Simcock's Breeze Up horse KHAMSIM who is drifting to 14's but that's because there's money for STATE OF DESIRE. No strong view this time as we think SOD, EL BODON or even KHAMSIN could go well so its a good watching race.

15.40 Yarmouth

JIWIN is by ACCLAMATION crossed over on the DANEHILL line as this filly is out of a HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR mare AUBINEAU. AUBINEAU is a sister to Richmond Stakes winning 2yo IVAWOOD. Once a 25,000gns foal, then resold for 40,000gns as a yearling and 170,000gns as a breezer. We had a long look at her at the sales (see below).

MANTRA. George Boughey and Highclere team up with this TAMAYUZ filly. A €10k yearling and resold for £160k as a breezer. MADHMOON and AWATAAD are further down the pedigree. 

BORN TO ROCK is by SOLDIERS CALL and cost €17k as a yearling and then resold for 110,000gns as a breezer. Obviously did a very good breeze because the pedigree is a little uninspiring. 

ZOUMOON is by ZOUSTAR who is a gun sire down under but stands at Tweenhills for his northern hemisphere season. This filly’s dam won as a 2yo and her grand dam was a Gr1 winner in America. There’s plenty of black type down the page. 

MIRRORING by MEHMAS and a full sister to a smart middle distance horse in Italy who also won as a 2yo. From the family of SPYCATCHER who was second in the Acomb and won the Kathy Stakes. 

Verdict: We liked JIWIN as a yearling last year, she had a great big backside on her where the engine is...arse like the scullery maid! Her dam side is a bit weak though. ZOUMOON might run well into the places and give the fave something to think about.

Sales tracker

The team behind BGP Capital made reams of notes on the best looking and best bred yearlings and it's now time to track how they get on.

Two horses we saw at the sales run today, JIWIN in the 15.40 and DINGWALL in the 14.20.

This is JIWIN. She's got a lovely big, round backside and obviously uses it well as she just produced 130k profit for her buyers at the breeze ups! Money could be well placed on her today.

This is DINGWALL. Not as nice as JIWIN but was enough for us to look at twice and he owns a nice 2yo page being related to a couple100 rated 2yo winners. All the dams progeny have won. Todays trainer, Ian Jardine is a bit of a question mark though as has a low striker rate with 2yo's but yard is in form so who knows. Watching brief today.

Risk on

Really tough day's racing today. It's concrete at Yarmouth but there are a lot of fast ground pedigree's in the mix with no stand out selection. 

The Young Blood section has been a revelation and produced more winners for us than even our bumper previews so we wont desert it today. We'll have small plays on the two horses mentioned in the verdict for the 15.40.

One more today, a horse well handicapped but will be posted later.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

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