Equinties - flat vs jumps

Gm Equinauts

Let’s dive in.

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HEADLINE ROUND UP

STAR MUSIC, a 160,000gns daughter of ZOUSTAR out of a FASTNET ROCK mare. Her brother was placed in a couple of Graded races as a 2yo in America. She bumped into a good filly at Newbury then bolted up at Kempton. Probably lacks a bit of quality but a nice filly.

BELLARCHI was a £30,000 yearling from Donny, she’s by top juvenile sire MEHMAS. This family goes back to the champion German horse MAMOOL. 66/1 suggests she’ll find this tough but she’s given connections a great ride winning 3 times and running 12.

Verdict: Right then, it is a tough one. Very tempting to go with SKELLETT, but DANCE SEQUENCE also has a lot of upside and she’s a much bigger price. The Godolphin filly won’t mind the soft in the going description and Charlie Appleby could really do with a Group winning 2yo this season. Is she their 2024 Guineas girl? GUSHING GOLD place chance.

15.00 GROUP 2 CHALLENGE STAKES

The market has sided with MATILDA PICOTTE in this race for her easy win lto in a Group 3. A filly in form clearly, but her actual form was done no favours by NIIGIRI lto.

CHINDIT runs his last race on these shores before heading to India for stallion duties. What an animal he has been for connections. This is his swan song.

AUDIENCE has drifted off fave. He’s a big gelding by IFFRAAJ who goes on any ground but is perhaps best on top of the ground as shown by his 2nd behind KINROSS at York two starts back.

SHOULDVEBEENARING ran a blinder lto at Longchamp. That form with KINROSS puts him just on a par with AUDIENCE. Ground no concern.

LORD MASSUSUS can’t win.

Verdict: CHINDIT is a beast of a horse and Hannon says he is in rude health. He goes well on the Rowley Mile and ground won’t be a problem. ONE. LAST. TIME.

16.10 GROUP 1 FILLIES MILE

SHUWARI by NEW BAY, she won a Listed race on her second start beating FALLEN ANGEL who has since won a Group 1. Second lto beating YLANG YLANG, she got quite far back that day and although finished strong, this extra furlong isn’t certain to suit.

CLASSICAL SONG is a half sister to Gr1 winner DYLAN MOUTH. She made a promising debut behind ORNELLAIA who has since been Gr1 placed. Won well at Sandown on her last start, form looks ok but she needs improvement.

YLANG YLANG made a promising start to her career and then the wheels came off on her third start. She was third behind SHUWARI lto on her 4th start over 7f (and on good to firm), connections hoping the slower ground and step up in trip will help her chances today.

SEE THE FIRE by SEA THE STARS o/o Gr1 Juddmonte International winner ARABIAN QUEEN. Won well on debut and then improved to be second lto in the Gr2 May Hill, she was green and hung in behind the winner so likely more improvement to come but needs it.

CAUGHT U LOOKING by HARZAND was well beaten by YLANG YLANG on debut but has clearly improved since then. She won lto but only by half a length and that doesn’t look Gr1 form but the soft going will be a big bonus on pedigree.

AMBIENTE AMIGO has won well on her last two starts, they have both been at Lingfield so this course and ground and distance will all be new to her. Potentially out of her depth in this.

SEAWARD is another by SEA THE STARS, she won well (in the end) on her last start. Improvement is likely, but needs it to take this prize. Looks more a filly for next year with this being a throw at the stumps.

BRILLIANT wasn’t beaten far behind CAUGHT U LOOKING two starts back but looks like she’ll be playing pacemaker duty today.

Verdict: With the step up in trip and slower ground more likely to suit than what she encountered lto YLANG YLANG is a tasty price to finish her 2yo season on a high. The danger on pedigree CAUGHT U LOOKING at 6’s. Two options there.

YOUNG BLOOD

Our bumper previews found the 2nd on Wednesday and 3rd yesterday in WENDINGO we’re getting closer… There’s a good bumper tomorrow.

STATS OF THE DAY

This section highlighted a monster gamble yesterday in SASSOON, 9’s into 9/4, getting the W courtesy of the stewards and helped land the the place bet of the Risk On treble:

Two standout stats today:

JJ and Nicholls take it in turns to win the 14.48 with JJ having the most attractive record in it recently with COLLECTORS ITEM last year and SOARING GLORY in ‘20. Today he runs ZONDA vs the Nicholls hot pot who might just need time to acclimatise having come from Germany.

Joe Tizzard land 1 in 3 when running horses fto after a wind job. More, all the horses who’ve had their wind done recently are improved - INVESTMENT MANAGER recently achieved a career best official rating after a wind job, SHERBORNE won first time up in May and is up 10lbs after a wind job and recent winner TAMARIS has won two on the trot and up 10lbs too since his op. FAUSTINOVICK 17.08 has had his wind done and won on reappearance at this course last year.

RISK ON

A brilliant days racing today and the TOTE FANTASY has it all covered with 3 pools. Set up your flat or jumps stables, or both and join us using code QHZ36G:

As for the bets, we like several so play with small stakes:

We’ll play the two fillies in the first race at HQ ew,

plus a single on CHINDIT in the 15.00,

a small speccy 44/1 ew blood double on 16.10 YLANG YLANG and 17.55 BOOGIE WOOGIE and

one small jumps bet is on 15.23 CHIANTI CLASSICO who looks a massive type and might prove too good vs the field today. Nicholls’ the only danger really.

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