Equinties - the flat is back

Author

BGP Capital
March 19, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Nothing says the flat is BACK more than Ballyldoyle on the scoresheet, big moves in the Guineas markets and Ryan Moore stamping his passport.

It’s been Willie Mullins over the winter but the baton was passed back to Aidan O’Brien yesterday as Ballydoyle hit the start of the turf season with a brilliant winner. BRILLIANT who is a sister to ALCOHOL FREE won the Gr3 Park Express Stakes yesterday under Declan McDonogh and, as you’d expect, has entries in the all big races.

Aidan has mentioned a tilt at the Guineas in Newmarket for her and her 5th place finish in the Fillies Mile is telling as Ballydoyle don’t send many to the race. It was won by Guineas favourite YLANG YLANG but this filly had a bit of a torrid journey - “stumbled start, rushed up, bit short of room.” She wasn’t good enough on the day but a winter on her back she had started her 3yo career well.

Whilst interviewed at the Curragh Aidan also mentioned how well CITY OF TROY is going. A very important horse for them, not least because he could join the stallion ranks but also he is by their young gun JUSTIFY. It could propel him to another level in the stallion business.

CITY OF TROY’s pilot and Ballydoyle no. 1, Ryan Moore, is already clocking the mileage - he was at the Curragh yesterday and will be soon on his way down under to ride STORM BOY in the Golden Slipper this weekend.

RACING NEVER SLEEPS.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

FAT LADY SINGS 

This year’s Newmarket 1000 Guineas will potentially be without one of its main hopes as Aidan O’Brien confirmed that OPERA SINGER, an impressive five-length Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac winner, has suffered a setback. 

The 3yo by JUSTIFY was a general 4/1-shot and seen as a banker for the second Classic of the year, but apparently is “a little bit behind and might not make the English Guineas”.

Starting at the Curragh [for the Irish 1000 Guineas] looks a likely starting point for her now which now leaves stablemate YLANG YLANG as the new 4/1 favourite. FALLEN ANGEL is 6/1, ONE LOOK is 12/1, and CINDERELLA’S DREAM is 16/1.

However, O’Brien may have another one to chuck into the 1000 Guineas mix after yesterday as BRILLIANT won the Group 3 Park Express Stakes under Declan McDonogh.

After the success, the half-sister to ALCOHOL FREE is as big as 50/1 to win the British Classic.

The Flat season proper begins this week , and we are all for it! 

LINCOLN DOUBLE

Also on the card at the Curragh yesterday was the Irish Lincolnshire, a contest that went the way of Fozzy Stack’s CHAZZESMEE who was well-fancied prior to the off.

In what was a good field that included George Boughey’s RAADOBARG, the 6yo streaked clear under Joey Sheridan and could now head to Doncaster on Saturday for a stab at the English equivalent, the Lincoln Handicap. 

Stack said: “He's a horse that has never been short of ability but he broke his pelvis at Dundalk as a three-year-old and was off for a year. For the last six months there has been nothing really wrong with him but he just hasn't been able to run. 

“We'll see how he is during the week and then decide over whether to run in the Lincoln at Doncaster on Saturday. If he is okay we have nothing to lose.”

He’s clearly a horse that doesn’t lack ability and he’ll only get a five-pound penalty for the win, so that would offer reasoning to his 7/1 price for Saturday’s feature contest.

HEWICK BOWLING TO AINTREE

After missing the Cheltenham Gold Cup due to the slow conditions, Shark Hanlon is preparing his stable star for the Aintree Bowl rather than the Grand National.

HEWICK, who watched the Gold Cup from his stable rather than participating in it, will be arriving at the Grand National Festival on the back of a 109-day break, something that has put the Shark off running him in the feature event of the weekend. 

This switch to the Bowl from the National means the weights will rise three pounds, putting CONFLATED as the new top weight. It’s not confirmed whether he is a confirmed runner yet, though NOBLE YEATS is number three off 165 currently.

On the decision, Hanlon said: “After missing the Gold Cup, I think it would be too big of an ask to shoulder topweight in the Grand National. The Gold Cup was his National prep and he's missed that so we might have a go at the Bowl instead.

"I think he would have a massive chance in the Bowl too. The horses who ran in the Gold Cup finished very tired and I suppose Shishkin would be the horse we all have to beat, but I would fancy our chances of running a big race in it. We might take a bit of beating."

TWEETS OF THE DAY

YOUNG BLOOD

WETHERBY BUMPER

CASTLE IVERS looked very good when winning on rules debut at Southwell before bumping into two promising ‘Champion bumper’ horses in TROPOLI FLYER and KINGSTON PRIDE on the aw at Lingfield. Likeable pedigree, he’ll be more at home in this race.

OAK GROVE was last seen in a hot bumper. Reps Fergal O’Brien who is bang in form atm and his pedigree is likeable - the sire gets bumper winners and the dam side is deep. Huge player.

David Pipe must have liked the form of the point WORLDWIDE FURY won because he also bought the horse in second. By JUKEBOX JURY out of a dam who produced FURY ROAD, this horse could be one to follow (if Pipe doesn’t ruin it).

SAWDUST for Alan King should need better ground and could be one for summer handicaps.

CAUGHTINYOURTRANCE reps Moffat who likes targeting bumpers. Moderate pedigree though.

TELEMETRY sounds like a name more suited to a Juddmonte horse by FRANKEL but alas, it’s one by TELESCOPE for Kirby. Moderate and one handicaps.

LOW TOLERANCE and MISS MOTIVATOR are girls against the boys - will find life too tough today.

NUT WOOD probably has more of a chance than SAWDUST meaning 40’s is too big.

Verdict: We were really impressed with Olly Murphy’s CASTLE IVERS at Southwell and he is the right favourite. OAK GROVE comes with a reputation but needs to improve. The best pedigree on offer today by far is WORLDWIDE FURY and if he was trained by anyone else would be a good ew bet. The first three should be the first three in the market.

RISK ON

14.45 RAFFLES WONDER

Bolted up last week and will be tough to beat again. At 4/5, he really needs another shortie to double with (example - Pipes to place in bumper pays 5/2) but it’s a difficult days racing. Single looks the way today.

15.00 NUMITOR

Small ew bet here on what should be the best horse in the race. He hasn’t been seen for a year which is the concern but Heather Main and her husband can defo get them ready. The fave was a lto winner but who’s action suggests good ground is optimal and NUMITOR (at his best) is a better horse than the rest. Comes with increased risk after a long lay off where fitness a question mark so small stakes at 8’s.

The flat season proper will be kicked off nicely Saturday with Donny’s big betting 2yo race the Brocklesby which we have a huge track record in:

We have a pretty good idea who wins this years renewal. Don’t miss Saturdays Brocklesby edition by subscribing to the link below. For just £1 a week, you also join the Equinties weekender racing club which already has an exciting NH horse to run this year. Click below to join the club.

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