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Equinties - Flanagan frothing
BGP Capital
December 22, 2025
Gm Equinauts
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HEADLINE ROUNDUP
FINALLY, THE STAYERS HAS GOT INTERESTING
If the Long Walk Hurdle didn’t give you a winning bet slip, it definitely should have given you a big buzz for the festival. For a few years now, the staying division has been shocking with it’s crown being passed around between horses who you just have no idea whether they’ll turn up on the day or not.
Now, the race in March looks a fairly stable punting platform for punters.
Last years Coral Cup second IMPOSE TOI won Ascot’s Long Hurdle in basically a canter last weekend and put himself right into the stayers mix with ante-post markets putting BALLYBURN into favourite, TEAHUPOO second and then IMPOSE TOI price sharing with his owner mate, the young HONESTY POLICY, who finished nicely behind him in third making that two in the stayers mixer for JP.
IMPOSE TOI looked bloody imposing as he loomed upsides STRONG LEADER before the last and his victory appeared never in doubt. We didn’t back him but if you did, we ask you, was there ever a moment in the race you thought he wasn’t going to win? We’d have loved to have been in on that.
So anyway, the stayers has been a bit of a non-event owed to the lack of quality, now we’ve got arguably one of the race’s of the week! At this moment in time, he’s really made us question whether we’ll be sticking with BALLYBURN who we have liked for a while now. And it’s perhaps their pedigree’s which will decide it for us on the day depending on the weather.
Funnily enough, IMPOSE TOI is by the same sire as SIR GINO, ITS GINO (amusing that two of Hendo’s best horses are by the same sire). ITS GINO was very ground versatile, winning on both good and heavy. IMPOSE TOI’s dam’s side is French so you’d think any cut in the ground would be okay but although he’s big ‘rangey’ horse with a long stride, he doesn’t get his knee’s up that high, so heavy ground would be a concern. BALLYBURN excels in heavy going. A good ground Cheltenham would really see JP’s classy horse at his best, we think.
FLANAGAN FROTHING
Sean Flanagan has been frothing over MARINE NATIONALE in a recent interview with the RP ahead of his seasonal debut versus MAJBOROUGH.
Sean said: “he hasn’t missed a beat…I went down to the Old Vic gallop on the Curragh the other day to watch him work…And he worked alongside some pretty decent flat horses who would have plenty of pace, but he made a mockery of them… He blew me away”. Bullish.
MARINE NATIONALE is very strong in the market at 5/4 versus the weak MAJBOROUGH. We’re not sure if that’s an indication of market confidence in Sean’s ‘machine’ versus a horse who struggles to jump, or a sign that MAJBOROUGH might not run, either way the sounds coming out of the Barry Connell camp couldn’t be louder in favour of their star.
If the two big boys do meet on track on the 27th, it will be a huge race not to miss as whatever the outcome, it’s almost certain it will have a BIG impact on Cheltenham’s Champion Chase markets.
Last years winner is currently second fave at 4’s, right behind IL ETAIT TEMPS who has already been seen twice this season (and looking oh so good for Mullins too). Given the dismantling of the potential field in recent weeks with CONSITUTION HILL’s doubts suggesting SIR GINO will be sticking over smaller obstacles for now, next years Champion Chase won’t be vintage so if MARINE NATIONALE does resemble even half the machine Sean has described him as, then you’d think the books will cut him further.
IROKO ROCKING
It was two years since IROKO was last seen in the winners enclosure. Incredible given he’s such a talented horse and trained by an outfit rising through the training ranks. His absence from the winners isn’t for lack of trying (on the horses part anyway), he’s finished 2nd four times, once in Listed company and fourth in the Grand National. His form is banging too. He’s finished behind the likes of GREY DAWNING at Kelso and a recent placing behind THE JUKEBOX MAN could look very, very good come Boxing Day!
He’s always threatened to land a big one and although Saturday saw him finally get his head back in front in a small field (putting two good Irish horses behind him in odds on FIREFOX and JAMES DU BERLAIS), you’d think there is something bigger waiting for him.
Post-race, trainer Greenall complemented the horses improved physical stating he has strengthened up since last season and at 7yo, we think that’s highly likely! His targets now will be returning to Kelso and then put away to skip March and be brought back out for another go at the Grand National where we assume he’ll carry a very similar weight to last year.
We get the feeling he’s well handicapped!
RISK ON
We’re going to watch the market on only one horse today we suspect is a plot. If we decide to try our luck, we’ll post it on X @equnties.
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