Equinties - first season sires

Gm Equinauts

The flat season proper will be kicked off nicely tomorrow with Donny’s big betting 2yo race the Brocklesby (which we have a huge track record in):

We have a pretty good idea who wins this years renewal - we just need a bit of rain.

Don’t miss tomorrow’s edition.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

FERGAL FIGHTING ON

March has been a tough time for Fergals’ Ravenswell Farm. The team walked into the Cheltenham Festival with spirits high for two live chances at collecting a maiden Festival win in CRAMBO and DYSART ENOS, but walked out with no winners to their name, a misery compounded by the extremely sad passing of HIGHLAND HUNTER, the horse that led the parade for Keagan Kirby’s recent funeral. 

As is life, Fergal O’Brien is looking forward, helped yesterday by landing a second career success with GO TO WAR, a highly-touted novice hurdler coming into this season and it looks like O’Brien has aspirations of the EBF Final (won last year by CRAMBO) at Sandown with him for the spring. 

As for his super mare DYSART ENOS, Fergal revealed that she suffered an overreach at the bottom of the gallop a few days before her intended Cheltenham outing, though she ‘seems fine now’. Having absolutely hosed up in the mares bumper at Aintree last year (we backed), their sights are set firmly on Aintree again with the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle (against the boys) is her aim. 

With the Aintree mares bumper trophy sitting pretty in their growing trophy cabinet, this time around Fergal is eyeing up the boys trophy with TRIPOLI FLYER. Last seen winning a very strong Lingfield bumper beating a well touted Hendo horse and leaving CASTLE IVERS 10 lengths back in third, Fergal has a strong team for Aintree and looks set for a change in fortune.

NO SINGING FOR SANGSTER 

After Monday’s news that Aidan O’Brien’s OPERA SINGER would miss the 1000 Guineas, Ollie Sangster has confirmed that SHUWARI, the Rockfel and Fillies’ Mile runner-up, will also miss the second Classic of the season. 

In what would have been a first Classic runner for the up-and-coming trainer, a small setback has ruled the NEW BAY filly out of the 1000 Guineas. Sangster said: "It's fairly gutting. She's had a small setback which requires a little bit of time and we'd be up against it to make the Guineas. "She'll be back, I'm just not sure when. We'll give her a bit of time and see how things progress."

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/its-fairly-gutting-despair-for-ollie-sangster-after-minor-setback-rules-shuwari-out-of-1000-guineas-aqTZy0a6iTlZ/

FRENCH RAID 

George Boughey is looking to increase his success over in France with CHIC COLOMBINE as he is lining the SEAHENGE filly up for the French 1000 Guineas. 

The Highclere Thoroughbred-owned three-year-old was progressive as a two-year-old last season thanks to four victories, a second, and a third. However, having disappointed in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket in October, she returned to the track in fine fashion last weekend to land the Listed Prix le Camargo Stakes. 

Instead of bringing her back over to the UK, Boughey is keen to keep her in some of the top European races, as he said: “She was good, I think the fashion of her win was a bit surprising but it didn't surprise me that she won.

“She's done as well as anything over the winter, she was a frame of a horse last year and she's going to go back to France for the French 1000 Guineas trial–the Prix de la Grotte at Paris Longchamp.

“She's come out of her race really good, she's eligible for French premiums and I didn't put her in the English Guineas intentionally as we're working back for the French Guineas.”

More: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/la-grotte-then-french-1000-guineas-pencilled-in-for-chic-colombine/

2024 FIRST SEASONS SIRES

We called it early last season…

…Now it’s time to look at the contenders for this new season.

PINATUBO is current fave at 11/10 to pick up champion first season sire honours. His distaff (dam) line is quite stamina base. His dam is by the middle distance sire DALAKHANI - she won over 1m1f and 1m3f as a 3yo. Pinatubo’s second dam is by BARATHEA, who ran and won twice as a 2yo but he was really an exceptional 3yo miler. Also, his grandmother MOUNT ELBRUS like her daughter LAVA FLOW was a middle distance mare winning as a 3 and 4 year old. More, NDAAWI is in the 2nd dam, meaning half brother to PINATUBO’s mum ran at Cheltenham this year! A very mixed page indeed.

PINATUBO does come from the immediate family of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT and KODIAC though, which will inject the much needed precocity to hit the ground running. We can expect to see a raft of them running this year, but how much influence is his dam going to play a part.

His fee is £35,000 which pushes a lot of commercial breeders out, and therefore he would have covered mares from Owner Breeders who generally own more of a classic 3yo type mare.

SERGEI PROKOFIEV is already on the scoreboard with Amo horse ARIZONA BLAZE who looks set to compete at Royal Ascot.

SP is second fave 15/8 in the champion first season sire markets and currently stands at £6k for Whitsbury Manor, who as we know, are famous for landing this prize in ‘22 with gun sire HAVANA GREY.

SP was all speed - a good winner of the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes his best triumph but his pedigree is a little hard to judge as both his dam and grand dam didn’t do much.

EARTHLIGHT is 5/2 was also all speed on the track, the winner of the Gr1 Prix Morny and course record holder in the Middle Park. SHAMARDAL’s other 6 furlong Gr1 winning son at stud is…drum roll…BLUE POINT. But important to add, BLUE POINT is out of a ROYAL APPLAUSE mare. All speed. Both PINATUBO and EARTHLIGHT’s first and second dams are by middle distance sires. However, EARTHLIGHT’s distaff line definitely shows more precocity. His dam was placed in the Gr1 Fillies Mile and won the Sweet Solera Stakes as a juvenile. His grand dam SUMMERTIME LEGACY, although by DARSHAAN, was also competitive as a 2yo winning the Prix Des Reservoirs.

MOHAATHER has a chance at 10’s. Jim Crowley said he should have won the Guineas but injury meant he couldn’t run. He has a runner in the Brocklesby tomorrow so some must be showing some early speed. By SHOWCASING who gets 2yo winners and o/o an INCHINOR mare (INCHINOR was runner up in the Dewhurst and gets or used to get 2yo types). SHOWCASING’s best progeny are precocious types like Lagadere winner BELBECK and ADVERTISE, SWINGALONG, TASLEET, QUIET REFLECTION and DRAMATISED.

MOHAATHER covered 366 mares in his first 3 seasons at stud, he has 96 juveniles to go to war for him this year so a little less than the aforementioned PINATUBO (109 2yo’s) and EARTHLIGHT 108 2yo’s).

Going back to his female line; his full sister is the fast PRIZE EXHIBIT who won Grade 2s and competed in Grade 1s in America. He is a brother to the dams of Gr1 winner ACCIDENTAL AGENT and useful 2yo POLLY POTT. Going further down his page, his grandmother won twice as a 2yo and produced some racehorses headlined by Gallagher who was placed in the Prix Morny.

Verdict: PINATUBO will have received the best mares and we already now he has some nice ones on the groun, but he’s quite short at 11/10 so it might be worth searching for a bit of value. EARTHLIGHT reps that all important SHAMARDAL blood (sire of BLUE POINT) and his dam side injects more speed into the page than PINATUBO’s does. EARTHLIGHT is the tentative pick at 5/2.

TWEETS OF THE DAY

RISK ON

We won’t even talk about this one:

We’ve tried to hit some big prices this week - 8/1 seasonal debutants, 16/1 tri-casts and 10/1 handicap debutants. Some have been close (last night), others were a little over ambitious (NUMITOR).

Today we’re going with another one! Some shorties might be posted later on X @equinties.

17.20 AH WHISHT

Huge price at 25/1 so it’s up in the air whether the wind op has worked but she should prove well handicapped in time. Small bet ew.

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