Equinties - notes from Naas

Gm Equinauts

Well, this weekend’s racing was decimated by the weather and the forecast doesn’t look to bright for the week ahead with Ludlow off today, Leicester having already cancelled their meeting for tomorrow (take note Musselburgh!) and a lot of courses planning inspections for their turn later.

We did at least we have some Irish action to watch with definite Cheltenham contenders on display, so we’ll dissect that today.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

BARTLETT BOUND, OR NOT

In yesterday’s Lawlor’s Of Naas THE YELLOW CLAY relished conditions and looked like the winner from a long way out, ultimately winning by an absolute street.

Let’s start with the negatives, if there are any. JASMIN DE VAUX never got into the race which would mean some might immediately place a question mark of doubt over the form.

Our opinion is you can’t crab him for winning, plus he did it in style. THE YELLOW CLAY was good, and he’s kind of always been good as well. He was fourth to JEROBOAM MACHIN after a 314-day break at the DRF and he was then second to REDEMPTION DAY at Punchestown.

That JEROBOAM MACHIN form is still up in the air as we don’t know how good he could have been before his injury but since then, THE YELLOW CLAY is unbeaten over hurdles in four, and he was much better on Sunday than he was in the Grade 2 Navan Novice Hurdle in early December.

WINGMEN set the race up nicely for him yesterday, and while SUPERSUNDAE tried to chase him down, the race was all over a long way out.

So, which race for the Cheltenham Festival? A lot of people thought he’d be an Albert Bartlett type after yesterday (and after his win at Navan in December), so the post-race comments from Gordon Elliott made for interesting reading.

Although he will probably get an entry for the Nathaniel Lacy at the DRF over 2m6f, he might go straight to the Festival, and Elliott imagines it’ll be “the middle distance race”.

He said: "I thought the way he travelled form midway through the race until the second last was the best he's ever travelled. It was a good performance because I was very worried about the ground.

"He'll be entered in the two novice hurdles at the Dublin Racing Festival but he's had four runs now and we might just hold fire for Cheltenham. I imagine he'd go for the middle-distance option [the Turners]."

If he does that, he will run into the likes of THE NEW LION and POTTERS CHARM. They’re not unbeatable, but they are very good horses, especially current talking horse THE NEW LION.

If they went to the Bartlett with THE YELLOW CLAY, one would imagine he’d be a leading chance in a race that tends to be easier. We know what we would do.

BACK WITH A SPLASH

With no win last year over hurdles, ILE ATLANTIQUE has been a hard horse for his fans to follow, and their abandonment of him yesterday from a punting perspective would have been justified by the concern that his recent winning chase debut might have been a flash in the pan.

He was lining up against a good field, it was an Irish Grade 2 after all, with the JP’s  INTHEPOCKET brining such consistent form to the table, it allowed his backers to push him into strong favourite – as if losing was out the question!

Well, a fence can change everything in jumps racing and loyal ILE ATLANTIQUE followers were duly rewarded:

It was all too easy for the seven-year-old by COASTAL PATH. He jumped consistently well, travelled like the best horse around the bend, and then found the most after the last. Job done.

Just with a look to the future, you’d think hot pot fave INTHEPOCKET, is going to be a very hard horse to trust, but is he? Okay, some might argue he could have won yesterday, but instead threw. His toys out the pram, but what if ILE ATLANTIQUE is just a different beast over the larger stuff.

When looking at the markets for the Festival, ILE ATLANTIQUE is an 8/1-shot for the Arkle behind MAJBOROUGH (7/2) and SIR GINO (4/5).

Two of those horses are trained by Willie Mullins and two of them are owned by JP McManus. Neither JP nor Willie are afraid to run their horses against each other, so it’s fair to assume all three can go to the Arkle.

Furthermore, Mullins is already thinking about running MAJBOROUGH against ILE ATLANTIQUE at the DRF, especially if the ground stays soft. He isn’t the quickest two-miler in the world, and while that may be fine in these winter months on soft ground, the potential of spring ground at the big Festivals may just be against him.

Nonetheless, it’s clear that he’s talented and maybe he just needed time to develop due to his size

ILE ATLANTIQUE is a nice horse, and he’s probably not even at the top of his game right now. How far can he go? That question will be answered in spring and in turn the Irish will be hoping that answer applies to the SIR GINO question - who the bloody hell can beat him!?

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

KARIA DES BLAISES – NAAS 12:25 SUNDAY

There was a big word for FUN FUN FUN after her successful chasing debut yesterday, but there should also be a nod to the runner-up, KARIA DES BLAISES. She was positioned well out the back of the race, and while Paul Townend told the stewards that she “jumped left throughout”, she was given a ride that suggested she would never win. She raced behind the useful ONLY BY NIGHT at Cork in December and she is still pretty unexposed having been shoehorned into last season’s Fred Winter behind LARK IN THE MORNIN. There should be a nice handicap in her going forward, but it’s just a case of when.

WINGMEN – NAAS 1.55 SUNDAY

Yes, he’s back on the eye-catchers list. We highlighted WINGMEN as a horse to follow after his run at Cheltenham last month, and we’re doing it again because people are cottoning on to a plan we highlighted on December 16th. Yes, could the Martin Pipe dream be alive for this Bective Stud horse?

He needs two more runs before Cheltenham in order to qualify, which would be a bit touch-and-go, but it’s not impossible. He’s a horse for next year, but he did some proper donkey work for THE YELLOW CLAY on Sunday, and in a race where he is “off”, he could do some damage.

RISK ON

Two bets today, on two very different surfaces!

14.35 TOMMY COMBATS

The youngest in the field but a big old unit who, like the aforementioned ILE ATLANTIQUE, simply needed a fence. He already has RAFFES WONDER behind him and we think the galloping nature of Ayr will really suit him to be able to progress and prove better than his 100 mark. 6/4.

19.30 GUSTAV GRAVES

Looks primed to win here - he’s well in and came alive this time last year.

Singles and a small 5.5/1 double.