Equinties - Fergal re-sets

Gm Equinauts

A big, big weekend for Dan Skelton who has a plethora of entries in a bid to stay ahead of Mullins. He has a sniff, you know. The books aren’t tightening his price to win the title yet, namely owed to Mullin’s Sussex Champ and Sandown entries, but it’s going to be some race.

Good luck, Dan!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

FERGAL RE-SETS

Fergal O’Brien can be a frustrating trainer at times. As much as he is a great man, backing his horses at the very top level can induce more pain than one would hope for and is something he will need to address if he wants to mix it with the top trainers.

Take CRAMBO as an example. He was beaten in a Haydock handicap off 139 before winning the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle in 2023. He then ran like a drain for two runs and then pitched back up to the 2024 Long Walk and won like a nice horse. He then lost twice again.

The moral of the story? Backing O’Brien-trained horses in Graded races or top, top handicaps comes with their risks.

We don’t know exactly why – maybe it’s the way he prepares them or just bad luck.
Anyway, there was a case of the head scratching when TRIPOLI FLYER ran in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at the Aintree Grand National Festival.

This is a horse who had just come off the back of an impressive Grade 2 win in the Dovecote, and the market managed to back him into strong favouritism on the day. And yet, he ran awfully to finish sixth of nine.

Anyway, the boss of Ravenswell Farm has dusted himself off and is ready to run his exciting novice hurdler once more this season, this time over the water in Punchestown.

He said: "If all goes well, we’ll go to Punchestown. I honestly can’t get away from how badly he ran at Aintree. We’ll try to keep him right-handed. All of his wins have come on right-handed flat tracks."

Honestly, it would be pretty amazing to see O’Brien pitch up at Punchestown and win a Grade 1. Even if TRIPOLI FLYER just runs well, he could well set himself up for a prosperous season next year, potentially over fences. Boy, we Brits could do with a nice one to go to war with. Is he the one?

FRENCH TARGET

We think the 15.35 at Newmarket yesterday, a seven-furlong conditions stakes, could work out to be a very nice race in time.

TREBLE TEE (4th) looked very smart for the Crisford’s on his debut in October, AL ARBEED (3rd) travelled powerfully and was the last horse to come off the bridle, ANNO DOMINI (2nd) showed class last year and ran well in a slightly below-par time for Charlie Appleby’s yard, and PELLITORY won for the Gredley Family.

The James Owen-trained son of SERGEI PROKOFIEV was highly tried last year, winning two of his six starts as a juvenile, but yesterday was a big career-best. He may have caught a few horses on their off day and made the most of the far side track bias, but still, he stuck on for pressure and he was having his first start of the year as well!

Where next? Well, he has no entry for the English Guineas, but he could still be seen in a Classic next.

Owen said: “He had done all his work with Wimbledon Hawkeye and we had this race planned the whole season and you get here and it is a strong race and you hear all the words going about town.

“We were on a learning curve today as to whether he was a handicapper or something a bit better. He has got a French 2000 Guineas entry and I love this horse. He works as well as Wimbledon Hawkeye.”

Fair play to James Owen. He was fairly open about the horse, after the race, admittedly, but his words give a nice insight into what they actually think of this 25/1 winner.

Was the win a fluke? Well, not really. Yes, some of the horses behind him may be better after a run, but Owen seems to think he is good enough to go to the French Guineas. Eyes on.

13.15 LISTED BURRADON STAKES

We’ve got more action to look forward to, but this time, we’re on the artificial surface as we have the All-Weather Championships Finals Day at Newcastle and the Listed Burradon Stakes over one mile for the three-year-olds kicks off the card.

ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT has been booted out of favouritism. He has form in the book with FIELD OF GOLD and WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE, and Andrew Balding’s yard is in hot hot form.

And yet he’s actually quite easy to back for Gosden’s BOWMARK has been obliterated.

BOWMARK is by KINGMAN out of the Listed winner BOUND (GALILEO), so he has a nice pedigree and is one from one after winning at Kempton in December. It’s hard to put a handle on his form. Experience is against him.

TITANIUM EMPEROR has the same experience issues with just one win from one outing. He has quite the family, and he’s sporting those important Amo Racing silks.

He is a NIGHT OF THUNDER half to MY PROSPERO (we love him), MY OBERON, and MY ASTRA, all of whom are black-type horses. The former was very, very good for William Haggas, and TITANIUM EMPEROR did a lot right on his debut last month.

GLITTERING LEGEND is different to both BOWMARK and TITANIUM EMPEROR as he has the five runs. He’s won three races, though he finished behind NEW CENTURY and FIELD OF GOLD on debut which is nice form. He won 20 days ago, so he’s in good form, and he could really be anything. He’s also a TOO DARN HOT half to the Group 3 winner MEGALLAN.

MICHAEL SCOFIELD (great name) is two from two for Michael O’Callaghan, and his presence in this race is interesting. O’Callaghan hasn’t had any runners at Newcastle before and this TIZ THE LAW gelding is a half to the Grade 1 winner KIMARI. He’s American-bred and could outrun his odds.

NORDIC NORM completes the field. He’s already been beaten, and he only won by a head on his debut. This might be a step too far, but he does like the track.

Verdict: The money is scary for BOWMARK, we know people having big bets on him and his debut looked very good but he’s once raced and we’d liked to have seen more of him. The one to beat both on form and experience is Fanshawe’s GLITTERING LEGEND. At 5’s he’s the nod.

RISK ON

Wednesday and Thursday were very poor days results, our biggest let down biggest TREBLE TEE who was a no show yesterday, but we shan’t lose faith in him and will follow him.

There is some brilliant racing today for big pots but it looks hyper competitive and after giving a fair bit back recently, we’re tools down.