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Equinties - feels like Saturday
BGP Capital
November 17, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Here are the times you need today:
13.35 is nice Grade 3 2mile novice hurdle note book race - it’s full of well bred, future Cheltenham horses ready for the tracker
14.00 LULAMBA makes his chase debut versus Gary Moore best horse SALVER et al.
14.10 Turners second THE YELLOW CLAY makes his seasonal debut.
14.45 Cheltenham heroine DINOBLUE is back versus the boys.
15.20 Cheltenham monster KOPEK DES BORDES makes his chase debut
Enjoy.
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
LOVE CHELTENHAM
Cheltenham was pretty good this weekend, wasn’t it?
ALEXEI bolted up in the Greatwood, PANIC ATTACK landed the plan in Paddy Power, NO DRAMA THIS END looks like Paul Nicholls’ saviour, and Dan Skelton had it absolutely off, again.
There’s a lot that we could talk about, and we may save some stuff for tomorrow, but for now, we’re going to take a look at Friday’s Grade 2 Shloer Chase because not only did we promise we’d discuss it in more detail in Saturdays edition, but we can’t stop thinking about it.
So, JONBON lost at Cheltenham again, L’EAU DU SUD won, and the two-mile chasing scene might have to recognise Dan Skelton’s grey as a serious threat in the Queen Mother Champion Chase scene from now on.
That may be a bit of a lazy and obvious statement to make so early in the season, especially because we know that Willie Mullins has MAJBOROUGH at home, but L’EAU DU SUD really does have to be seriously in the conversation for the Champion Chase come March after that display.
Seriously, how often do we see performances like this around Cheltenham?
To put in an effort like that both this weekend and last year in the Arkle Trial isn’t a fluke or aren’t performances that come with an asterisk because ‘JONBON was behind’ in work.
Cast your mind back to the Arkle in March, it looked like L’EAU DU SUD was going to win the Arkle in March, only to be swallowed up after the last. He still ran with credit, but that was already his fifth run of the season, so maybe it was just all catching up with him at his young age?
We should see L’EAU DU SUD again before the year is out, so the Tingle Creek will give him the chance to prove he is no fluke horse, but, in a way, it doesn’t really matter with a view to Cheltenham. He probably ran a little bit below par when winning last season’s Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase last season at Sandown having bolted up in the Arkle Trial, so he may go to the Tingle Creek, get spanked by JONBON, and soon become a 20/1 shot for the Champion Chase in March. And yet, we all know that when March rolls around, he will have a very attractive profile because he is very much a horse who can run to a figure of 170 around Prestbury Park.
Could you say with certainty that JONBON, who will be 10 in March, would be able to do that next year? Absolutely not. Same question about MAJBOROUGH. With his jumping tendencies, he too will be vulnerable.
Yes, maybe we’re getting carried away slightly as JONBON desperately needed the run and the ground might have exaggerated the winning margin, but next year, L’EAU DU SUD will be the right age with the right profile trained by the right person and ridden by the right rider.
Anyway, L’EAU DU Sud will meet JONBON at Sandown next month, and post-race, Skelton said: “I’m not very proud of myself for last year in the Arkle, as I shouldn’t have run him at Warwick before. It took too much out for him and he wasn’t at his best for the festival, but that’s in the past and hopefully we can make up for it in the future.
“The thing is with young horses is that they’re learning, and you’re not going to get it right all of the time. Those defeats probably helped build him into a man, so there’s positives to it all.”
“He’ll go to the Tingle Creek and then, based on what I got wrong last year, it might have to be straight to the Champion Chase. I wouldn’t leave the door completely shut on Ascot [Clarence House Chase] though.”
As for Nicky Henderson, he said: “His jumping isn’t as flamboyant in this ground as on really good ground, but I’m sure it isn’t going to be miles better in three weeks.
“We’ve got this run under his belt, and that’s what we had to do. We didn’t really want to do it in this ground, but we had to do it in order to get to Sandown.”
JONBON will improve for the run, and he may well bolt up at Sandown to silence the haters, but there’s always a worry with him when he runs and he isn’t getting any younger.
GRADE 2 GLORY
We don’t need to discuss FINAL DEMAND’s demolition job at Navan yesterday. He jumped like a stag and did as was expected of him giving owner Bryan Drew a hell of a weekend (his PANICK ATTACK won the Gold Cup too). But FINAL DEMAND is now a stupid price for a race in 4 months time and it’s all rather boring (from a punters point of view).
The two performances we did think warranted some air time though came on the Saturday at Cheltenham.
Keeping this chronological, the Grade 2 Triumph Trial was an interesting affair to watch. PRECIOUS MAN was strong in the market, and he was apparently the one to be on pre-race. He put in a solid, solid performance, but he just found the race fit and more experienced ONE HORSE TOWN too good in the end.
ONE HORSE TOWN winning was a nice result, but as something to talk about with the future in mind, there isn’t much to say. He was a cheap purchase who has given his connections a huge day in the sun, and he has very much done his job and then some.
The one to focus on from the race is PRECIOUS MAN, and yes, this does involve his potential Cheltenham target. Dan Skelton, despite losing, was over the moon with how PRECIOUS MAN ran. He travelled well on the ground, he looked like the winner for a while, but he just got the last wrong and couldn’t find anything against a race-fit rival.
Post-race, he slipped in the line about picking “whichever race would be most appropriate” regarding his Festival target. Does that not scream ‘he is one for the Fred Winter, lads’?
To run in the Fred Winter you need to have had three hurdles runs. He has that with his two in France. The handicapper can’t give him an opening mark that is too harsh because he’s been beaten twice, this latest one by three-and-three-quarter lengths when giving 5lbs away to a 123-rated horse. Maybe his opening mark will be 125? If he gets that, it could really be one run in the new year for fitness and then straight to the Fred Winter. The Triumph will be its usual hot race on the new course, whereas the Fred Winter is right there to have a pop at if you have a well-handicapped one. Dan isn’t silly, and he will probably already be thinking about this. We’re onto it, and we think that this is surely going to be the plan, right?
As for the other performance to flag, we just wanted to give a small word to JULY FLOWER, the banker of the weekend who won the Arkle Trial very well.
She has talent, but surely there are a couple better in Ireland than her? She is also a bit guessy/nervy to watch over her fences, which isn’t an amazing trait to have. She may just lack that little bit of tactical speed in an Arkle. BE AWARE isn’t the fastest horse in the world, after all. She will be campaigned down the Arkle route, but it wouldn’t shock us if she’s under starter’s orders for the Mares’ Chase come March.
WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS
JACK HYDE – FRIDAY 16.00 CHELTENHAM
Paddy Brennan and his syndicate have a fair few nice horses in their purple silks, and JACK HYDE is definitely one. Connections are sticking with the hurdles plan for the moment, and he has run some fair races in defeat this season, notably in the Persian War and on Friday behind FRENCH EMPEROR. The way the front three went away on Friday was very eye-catching, and we imagine that he is still nicely handicapped, even if the handicapper gives him 3lbs on Tuesday. He will be winning races soon, both over hurdles and (eventually) fences.
TORNEO -SUNDAY 14.20 CHELTENHAM
Jamie Snowden probably thinks one got away on Sunday with TORNEO finishing second in the two-mile handicap chase. To our eye, Gavin Sheehan gave him too much work to do in the home straight, and that probably cost him in his final few strides at the line. Furthermore, TRIPLE TRADE is just a nice horse who had slipped down the handicap to a really workable mark. The front two pulled well-clear of the field, and Snowden expects a big season from him this year. He’ll be winning soon.
RISK ON
We’re going to enjoy mainly watching the racing today but there should be a couple of plays, especially in the slop at Leicester.
We’ll post to X @equinties when we get risk on
