Equinties - the fastest horse in the world takes off today

Gm Equinauts

This is the line you need to take away from yesterday - the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. If you’re not in the 2%, this might be your opportunity to make the change.

Now, let's dive in.

WEEKEND PREVIEW

Nine races are live on ITV today with the action coming from Haydock, Ascot, and Kempton – there are plenty of handicaps for the 98% to get stuck into, but we’ll stick to the Group action thanks.

‘Wdym handicaps for the 98%?’

Big field handicaps are simply used by retard tipping accounts on racing Twitter to flex big price selections hitting the extra places. It’s fucking pointless. A 20 runner 7f sprint? That’s the chimp casino. And the races are fucking boring. I literally couldn’t think of anything worse.

Admittedly, this point of view has been drilled into me by gambling mentors, so I am bias. I’ve spent years trading under the watch of 3 proper, full-time gamblers, (this means no salary to fall back on every month… everything they buy is paid for by horses) and none of them bet big field handicaps. Tbf, they don’t actually enjoy watching or going racing – they just use racing as a device to transfer money from other people’s pockets to their own.

Gr3 Superior Mile Stakes

The Queen’s REACH FOR THE MOON heads the market in today’s opening Group contest from Haydock, a horse who is looking to bounce back from his Royal Ascot disappointment in the Hampton Court Stakes.

Whether he’s a non-stayer or not, they’ve reverted to a mile, a long way from the Derby standard. A visor has also been reached for by John and Thady Gosden to make sure this SEA THE STARS colt leaves it all out on the track. He receives five pounds off a few of his rivals - he’ll need it.

REACH FOR THE MOON has had questions marks over him all season - he missed the Derby, got pumped by MY PROSPERO in his belated seasonal debut and then bombed at Royal Ascot. I don’t think you could have any faith in him today.

A horse who beat REACH FOR THE MOON as a two-year-old is BAYSIDE BOY – Roger Varian’s NEW BAY colt got the better of Her Majesty’s once Derby hope in the Gr2 Champagne Stakes last September, though since then he has been slightly out of sorts.

I wouldn’t be reading too much into 2yo form at 3 as they’re all very different horses where many either get bigger and stronger or some don’t train on.

Charlie Hills’s DARK SHIFT splits the pair in the betting, a horse who is stepping out of handicap company for the first time in five starts.

This son of DARK ANGEL was a ready winner of the Royal Hunt Cup two starts ago off 96 and potentially the International Stakes over seven furlongs a bit too sharp lto – a return to a mile gives him his best chance to make a mark at this Group level. But what is his best chance I hear you ask? Fucking zero. Hills needs to get back in his box… as does the horse. He has no chance.

Wait, just seen he’s a NR. Good call Hills.

Royal Hunt Cup:

Our view: REACH FOR THE MOON has a question to answer and BAYSIDE BOY hasn’t looked good for ages, we’re going with next in market TRIPLE TIME. Kevin Ryan touted this guy as possibly the best he’s ever trained, and he hasn’t done anything wrong yet. He absolutely spanked Hills’ York winner, POINT LYNAS two starts ago and then barely came off the bridle lto in Listed company beating an odds-on Godolphin horse. That was all last season though, and despite him being bred in the purple (and therefore should be better at 3), you are going to need to trust Ryan has got him spot on for today on seasonal debut having had issues.

Gr3 September Stakes

The ITV action moves over to the all-weather at Kempton 20 minutes later to witness the Gr3 September Stakes over 1m4f.

Unfortunately, there is no ENABLE or HUKUM this year, but the eight who have been attracted to the contest make it a deep renewal of the race which sees Shaggas’ DUBAI HONOUR as the current favourite. Not only market favourite, he’s one of Shaggas’ fave but I really do think Shaggas has him wrong. When he lost to SIR BUSKER at York two starts back, I honestly thought Haggas was going to have a heart attack and he said he’d not beat him again. SIR BUSKER then beat him again next time out!

Haggas is stepping his gelding down in grade in the hope of ending his five-race loss streak – as he steps down in grade, he also goes up in trip to 1m4f today. He’s running on AW for the first time – a surface his sire’s progeny love but despite most things in his favour today, I do think he might be opposable.

Runner-up in the York Stakes:

MOSTAHDAF has been a bit of a bridesmaid recently with runs behind both BROOME and BAY BRIDGE in the big races, but he underperformed dramatically lto in the Gr2 Princess Of Wales’s when favourite to beat YIBIR and has been freshened up coming into today – this is his third go at 1m4f. Third time lucky?

Hardwicke second place for the Shadwell colt, SOLID STONE, who reopposes today, was in fourth:

GEAR UP, trained by Joseph O’Brien, failed the Racing Victoria vet protocols earlier in the week (like nearly every other horse JOB sent) and will be unable to race in either the Caufield Cup or the Melbourne Cup, though that won’t stop him from heading over to Australia to be based at Annabel Neasham’s stable in the near future – he will be targeted for races in Sydney and this is his last runout before the trip down under.

He was very game to beat CLEVELAND over 1m4f in the Ballyroan Stakes lto but he may just find this trip a bit too sharp against a few speedier types – both GEAR UP and CLEVELAND look like proper staying horses in the making.

Our view: Despite my thinking DUBAI HONOUR is opposable, Shaggas clearly sees this horse as one of his beasts and given he’s got a better eye than me… who tf I am to say he’s wrong?

Gr3 Sirenia Stakes

The final Group race from Kempton has attracted 11 two-year-olds to battle it out in the £70,000 race.

MISCHIEF MAGIC is on a mission to make it three in a row for Charlie Appleby and he is currently priced up as the 13/8 favourite with Pat Dobbs taking the ride - Appleby and Dobbs have a 100% SR together this year, although the record is just the one win from one runner.

Glorious Goodwood success for MISCHIEF MAGIC:

FLAG FLYING and ROGUE LIGHTENING are the two unexposed rivals in the lineup who can potentially serve it up to the Godolphin jolly. Whispers are ROGUE LIGHTENING has been working to >105 at home.

The former won impressively for Harry & Roger Charlton on debut and will improve for the run, however, UNLIMITED DATA set a wicked pace early on that day which perfectly set up the race for FLAG FLYING – it doesn’t look like he’ll have the same rapid pace to aim off today which could be a negative.

The latter represents the in-form Tom Clover stable and has produced some decent performances already this season, most notably when getting to the front too soon and finishing second to CHATEAU, a nice horse for Andrew Balding, lto – a 50-day break could have given him plenty of time to mature physically in preparation for today. Whispers are Dave’s driver did a bit of work on this lad upsides something rated 105 and when he pushed the button, ROGUE LIGHTNING fucked off. That’s bullish.

Second in the Listed Bowl Stakes:

Our view: We took serious yield from MISCHIEF MAGIC at Glorious Goodwood and his connections expect him to go in again today if the draw doesn’t become an issue. He’s a good horse. If ROGUE LIGHTNING has indeed been working to >105, then that will give the Godolphin horse a race. I’d side with ROGUE LIGHTNING as an ew to nothing.

Gr1 Sprint Cup

Saturday’s best racing finishes with the £350,000 Betfair Sprint Cup over the inner six-furlong track, a race that has been won twice in the last three years by Kevin Ryan – he returns with last year’s winner EMARAATY ANA to try and defend his crown.

Last year’s success:

Something that is brilliant this year is that the maximum field of 17 will head to the post, a great achievement for a historic race… HOWEVER, because there is a big field with lots worthy of a mention, it makes it hard for us to condense down the preview. So, here are the most ‘newsletter-worthy’ comments we could make about the race.

Firstly, on paper, there is plenty of pace today – DUBAWI LEGEND, ART POWER, NAVAL CROWN, GO BEARS GO, and BRAD THE BRIEF all like to go forward, with the first four mentioned all drawn low as well.

This info could set the race up well for everyone’s favourite ROHAAN out of stall 11 – he is drawn central enough to be able to set his sights on the runaway leaders and a fast-run six furlongs is right up his street (think back to the Wokingham)

Wokingham success at Royal Ascot:

In a similar train of thought, Irish raider CASTLE STAR could go well under Ronan Whelan – let’s not forget that this STARSPANGLEDBANNER colt was second to PERFECT POWER in the Gr1 Middle Park last year, second to GO BEARS GO when hanging right in the Gr2 Railway Stakes, and fourth in the Gr1 Phoenix Stakes to EBRO RIVER. That is good form, all achieved when coming from off the pace, and he should have BRAD THE BRIEF out of 15 as the one to catch.

If he has trained on from his two-year-old season, 28/1 could be a big price for this unexposed type – his draw in 17 is a negative (no horse has won the race from a stall higher than 12 in the last 10 years) but that could help counteract his tendency to hang right in the finish.

Middle Park second:

KINROSS drops back down to six furlongs for the first time since his eighth in the Platinum Jubilee at Royal Ascot – he is 0-3 over this distance (including one race over 6½f) and Frankie Dettori is 0-8 in this race, two worrying stats.

KINROSS victory lto:

And finally, it’s hard to ignore the obvious form angle into this race with Godolphin’s NAVAL CROWN out of stall five – he beat some really nice horses in the Platinum Jubilee, including five who reappear today, and he has no issue with bolting out of the gates and not coming back to the pack.

The form of his fifth in the Gr1 Prix Maurice de Gheest has had a boost via HIGHFIELD PRINCESS in the Nunthorpe, something that also benefits the case of MINZAAL, and Godolphin won this race five years ago with Harry Angel – can Charlie Appleby pick up a first success in the Haydock Sprint Cup?

Our view: I get the impression the older horses are better than the 3yo’s and NAVAL CROWN fits the bill having already finished 1st and 2nd in Gr1’s this year. This lad should be the best horse in the race.

Outside of the UK

This Saturday the second highest rated horse in the world behind BAAEED puts his unbeaten record on the line when he contests the Gr1 Pacific Classic.

FLIGHTLINE is the highest-rated dirt horse in the world (or in America considering that’s the only noteworthy place they run on dirt), he has trounced every field he has come up against by distances of 10 lengths and 11 lengths. Words such as ‘superstar’ and ‘freak’ have been lauded about.

To put his ability into some sort of perspective, when he won the Metropolitan Handicap (Gr1) over a mile at Belmont Park he stopped the clock at 1min 33sec – BAAEED’s time in the Sussex Stakes, also over a mile, was 1min 37sec, FLIGHTLINE was 4 seconds quicker. A direct comparison is tricky considering the races are different conditions but nevertheless this horse is rapid.

With speed to burn, FLIGHTLINE has his biggest test to come on Saturday as it will be over 1mile 2furlongs - the question is, can this horse who has shown otherworldly talent and so much speed stay the extra 2 furlongs and become an even more serious threat to BAAEED’s ‘World’s Best’ crown?

Put this horse on your radar and try to watch the Pacific Classic on Saturday around 18.00. He’s 1/5 so not a bet or even a tip, if he wins, he’ll be the shortest-priced winner of the race in its 32-year history.

Risk On

13.45 TRIPLE TIME

BAYSIDE BOY and DARK SHIFT have just become NR’s. For the reason in preview, I think TRIPLE TIME is a good bet to take on the shortie fave. His mare has three running today in CAPTAIN WINTERS, TRIPLE TIME and THIRD REALM. Half bet at 5/2.

13.55 SILMANIYA

Finndog NAP

14.16 MYSTIC PEARL

Whispers this just goes in for Shaggas. Full bet at 9/4 and 12/1 double with SEA TSARINA in the 16.36

15.30 NAVAL CROWN

For reasoning in the preview. Half bet.

17.25 SWELLTIME

Finndog NB

17.50 WHENTHEDEALINSDONE

Day 1 hun’s will remember this lad as the Mykonos bet – WHENTHEDEALINSDONE and OCEAN WIND Friday/Saturday max bet double. Fuck that was a good day. I don’t think I’ve ‘DEALIN since then actually but today should be the day with owner money down. Full ew to nothing at 4/1.