Equinties - family affair

Gm Equinauts

This morning we posted our first max bet of the flat season and Royal Ascot ante-post.

If we’re right, the Coventry market will get a BIG shake up today.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

FAMILY AFFAIR

This weekend is big for the O’Brien family.

Of course, Aidan O’Brien has some strong contenders in both the Oaks, Derby, and Coronation Cup, and there will be plenty of chat about his runners in the run-up to this weekend.

However, what about his son, Joseph? Could he have a few runners flying below the radar?

He could have runners in all three Group 1 contests this weekend, but it looks like the one Joseph is most looking forward to is his Oaks contender, WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY.

A quick look at her profile would make anyone interested. On just her second start, she beat MINNIE HAUK comfortably at Cork, and that form obviously looks good considering MINNIE HAUK is now 9/2 for the same race.

She went on to finish third in a Group 3 against the boys at Leopardstown, and the race has produced TRINITY COLLEGE, fourth in Sunday’s French Derby. She then went on to finish fifth to DELACROIX in the Ballysax on her seasonal reappearance before putting away the useful CATALINA DELCARPIO in the Group 3 Salsabil Stakes.

With a profile like that, she has to be of interest at a big price, and Joseph O’Brien seems keen to send her to the race on Friday.

He said: “Wemightakedlongway won her Oaks trial at Navan and she has trained well since then. She has a number of options. She could wait for Ascot or the Pretty Polly in Ireland, but we are strongly fancying her to go to Epsom for the Oaks.

“Minnie Hauk was second to her in her maiden win and she is an impressive Oaks trial winner off the back of a good run against the boys, so if we decide to go there with her she is definitely a legitimate contender.”

A strong case can also be made for AL RIFFA in the Coronation Cup on the same day based on his form with CITY OF TROY and SHIN EMPEROR, but he is only “50-50” to go as he might go to the Hardwicke Stakes.

The potential final leg of the three Group 1 runners is set to be TENNESSEEE STUD in the Derby, though he is one of the outsiders of the pack.

On his chance, O’Brien said: “Tennessee Stud didn’t have a bad reappearance in a very messy race at Leopardstown and he has trained well since so I am looking forward to how he goes up now up in distance. We think he will really enjoy going a bit further.”
So, his best chance this weekend? It has to be WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY, and she is certainly no back marker in the Oaks.

IN FOAL? NO PROBLEM

BELIEVING had a great season last year, didn’t she?

She got her head in front on two occasions, once in a Listed race and once in a Group 2, and she ran some mighty fine races in Group 1 company behind the likes of BRADSELL, MAKAROVA, and ASFOORA.

It's almost easy to forget that she was drawn badly on nearly every run in that sphere last year as well. She was drawn low in the Flying Five when you needed to be high, and she was drawn high in the Nunthorpe when you needed to be low.

This year, the MEHMAS mare, who was sold by Highclere to ‘The Lads’ for 3 million guineas at the Tattersalls Mares Sale in December, has already won the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint over in Meydan, and even though she is now in foal to FRANKEL, Boughey is plotting a route back to Royal Ascot.

He said: “The plan is to run Believing in the King Charles III Stakes at Ascot, where the stiff five furlongs will suit after her win over a flatter six furlongs at Meydan. She's been in good form since and the plan is to probably take her to Chelmsford on Friday for a racecourse gallop, a route we've done with her before. She is also in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, but the King Charles III is her priority."

This is an interesting move. All of last year, she was campaigned over five, and she slightly looked like six furlongs would suit her in time. After all, she has won five of her seven career successes over this distance.

Furthermore, she was beaten in the King Charles III Stakes last year, and ASFOORA is likely to face her again. The Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes can look a bit weaker than the King Charles usually, so, to our eye, she would have a sterling chance in the Jubilee.
Alas, she’s going to the King Charles, and she still warrants her place here. She’s been a cracking mare for the yard, and it would be nice to see her go and do the business on the biggest stage.

CROMWELL’S ARMY

Finally, while we’re talking about Royal Ascot, Gavin Cromwell likes to have a winner at the meeting. What an unlikely stat!

The Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning trainer has had two winners at the Royal Meeting from just four runners, running at +£18.00 to a £1 level stake. Not bad.

This year, Cromwell is readying a healthy team for his annual Ascot pilgrimage, and there are certainly some familiar faces to us jumps fans.

MY MATE MOZZIE, a Grade 3 novice hurdle winner, will head to the Copper Horse Handicap, while ROBBIES ROCK, second in this year’s Fred Winter, could go to the Ascot Stakes.

Even SIXANDAHALF, an agonising second in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, is running today at the Curragh to try and book her slot in the Ebor.

As for his non-jumping horses, SNELLEN, a winner of the 2023 Chesham Stakes, could run in the Kensington Palace Handicap, and his juvenile horse to watch out for goes by the name of JOYFUL TIDINGS, an A’ALI colt from the family of BLUE ANGEL (Listed placed) and VIREN’S ARMY (Listed winner).

On him, Cromwell said: "The plan is to go to the Windsor Castle with Joyful Tidings. We were happy with him at Tipperary and we were tempted to run him again but in the end we chose to straight to Ascot with him."
The trainer could also be represented by BROWNSTOWN, a Naas barrier trial winner, in this year’s Chesham.

RISK ON

We will play the strong bet sent out earlier plus:

16.22 BOYFRIEND

Hannon’s is top on figures and will love this fast ground. The horse who beat him is a very, very good horse. 7/4.

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