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Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

Before we jump into the news, an optical illusion to kick start your day!

A FRIENDLY REMATCH

Connections have gone ahead with their plan to run AMBIENTE FRIENDLY in the Irish Derby as he was supplemented for €100,000 on Tuesday. That price could seem like water off a duck’s back by Sunday as the winner receives €712,500 for their troubles, but it won’t be a free pass for the Epsom Derby runner-up.

The Epsom Derby third, LOS ANGELES, returns to Ireland in search of reversing that form with AMBIENTE FRIENDLY and Roger Varian’s very impressive Leicester winner MATSURI – who we mentioned in this newsletter at the end of May – was also confirmed.

Bar these three, the Group 1 contest does look a bit more open, though one would have to give GROSVENOR SQUARE a second look considering he was sent off favourite to beat the ill-fated HIDDEN LAW in the Group 3 Chester Vase.

SUNWAY has also been talked up as a good horse by David Menuisier, so he could also improve to win his second Group 1.

Roll on Sunday!

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/ireland/ambiente-friendly-supplemented-for-irish-derby-with-aidan-obrien-responsible-for-six-of-remaining-ten-entries-aXrju7j00AZU/ 

YARDS IN FORM

Normally, when trainers come in and out of form, we tend to put it to one side, but now we are on the other side of Royal Ascot, it’s worth highlighting the yards that are firing in a lot of winners.

Despite a quiet royal meeting, Jack Channon has accumulated six winners from his last 22 runners and he has two runners out at Ffos Las today – MANILA THRILLER (6:50) and CARMARRTHEN (7:50) – a course he is three from eight at.

The second is George Boughey after his victory with SOPRANO in the Sandringham…and we’ve really taken advantage of it this month!

13 winners from his last 45 runners may not seem extreme, but for a yard like his who has over 100 winners a year from 700-odd runners, that is fairly impressive. The helping of Billy Loughnane in his yard also helps.

The same theory can be applied to Tony Carroll who fired in three winners from four runners at Brighton last night, bringing his total winners over the last two weeks to 12 from 44. The yard has always wanted to hit 100 winners in a calendar year, so with 61 on the clock by the end of June, they will be throwing everything to hit it in 2024.

Furthermore, with the up-and-coming apprentice Jack Doughty – a jockey we have spoken about before – now riding for the team, Carroll’s runners over the next few weeks are worth watching.

A LOOK AHEAD  

After Royal Ascot last week, we are back to our regular scheduled programming with the Northumberland Plate taking centre stage in our ‘A Look Ahead’ section.

The weights are topped by TASHKAN off a mark of 111 having been a non-runner from Saturday’s Queen Alexandra Stakes.

He’s a horse who likes soft ground, so the switch to the all-weather may not necessarily suit him. His last try on the synthetic occurred when he was with Emmet Mullins as a two-year-old where he finished 13th, 8th, and 7th.

The top 20 runners in the handicap get a chance to win the Northumberland Plate, though the favourite currently is ALPHONSE LE GRANDE who is number 31. Trained by Cathy O’Leary (AJ Martin lol), he won his last two, the most recent occurring at Chester in May under William Buick. He got 8lbs for that effort, though he is by SEA THE STARS out of the Group 3-winning DOLCE STREGA, so a mark of 81 could be workable.

DUKE OF OXFORD has all-weather form to his name as he won at Kempton twice at the end of 2023. That pushed his mark up to 90 and he would have to run off that mark on Saturday, but on his last win, he beat ENEMY who went to Riyadh and finished second to TOWER OF LONDON. That, on paper, looks like good form but we don’t like the sire for this trip.

GRAND PROVIDENCE is 5lbs above his last winning mark which occurred at Newmarket in September. That win came as a three-year-old and he could well be improving. He also has two runs under his belt – one of which when a staying-on fifth in the Chester Cup – and he looks like a big player but Balding would wish he was in better form.

Sir Mark Prescott could have a few chances this year, though two of those chances would be carrying a winning penalty as they won recently. The first of which is TROOPER BISDEE who won the Pontefract Cup easily on Sunday. His 5lb penalty gets him into the race and Hollie Doyle is booked for this improver. As for his other charge with a penalty, PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE did his winning on a grander stage as he won the Ascot Stakes last week.

That may just sway connections’ thinking as to whether they run the horse as Luke Morris admitted he had a hard race at Ascot last week.

An interesting jockey booking is Billy Loughnane on Alan King’s SPARTAN ARMY and there are small amounts of money for him. His last win came off a 4lb lower mark at Lingfield in March and is one of a handful McNeill Family-owned Flat horses. He was a classy enough hurdler and obviously has ability in this sphere, so he could be a player.

Verdict: Good horses and trainer win this event. Every one will remember TRUESHAN winning it off top weight in ‘22, it takes a 100 horse or a plot job to win. YASHIN 10/1 for us looks a cracking ew bet here - will be top weight but might just be a class above this field.

OLD BLOOD / YOUNG BLOOD

THE AMERICAN INFLUENCE

The Yanks always have a way of getting involved in international relations. Over the pond their pool of thoroughbreds is largely dirt bred but a population of European bred horses has always played a part. Coolmore and other operations in Europe were obviously founded largely on American bred horses through NORTHERN DANCER, the little horse from Canada who was unsold as a yearling but conquered the Kentucky Derby and the world of bloodstock.

We can see the influence of American sire lines at Royal Ascot, especially in the juvenile sphere.

SHAREHOLDER won the Gr2 Norfolk for Wathnan Racing, and clocked a quick time, finishing the 5 furlongs in under a minute. Shareholder was a $60,000 yearling from Keeneland, and flipped into a €460,000 breezer in France. His sire is NOT THIS TIME and has had a meteoric rise in the stallions ranks. He retired at a fee of $15,000 and now commands $150,000 per cover. Shareholder was conceived on a $40,000 cover. Not This Time is by Giant’s Causeway who has the USA suffix next to his name, and he is out of a TRIPPI mare - Trippi was a dirt sprinter beating the other USA Bred More Than Ready who produced group 1 horses on dirt and turf. Shareholder’s dam is a sister to Guineas placed GALE FORCE TEN who was placed in the Norfolk himself - she is by Invincible Spirit and from the family of Biance Nera and Hotelgenie Dot Com. The former won the Moygale and the latter was second in the Gr1 fillies contest at the Curragh.

SHAMARDAL is incredibly influential in Europe and he has an extraordinary story. When he was purchased as a foal for $485,000 at Keeneland, he only cost 50k as a yearling at Tattersalls due to him being a wobbler which is another story altogether. INISHERIN won the Commonwealth Cup and he is by SHAMARDAL…

ROSALLION won the St James’ Palace and he is by SHAMARDALs son BLUE POINT, HAATEM won the Jersey Stakes and he is a grand son of Shamardal. Without being too exhausting, Shamardal - like NOT THIS TIME - is by GIANTS CAUSEWAY, SHAMARDAL’s dam is a sister to STREET CRY who is the broodmare sire of gr2 Hardwicke Stakes winner ISLE OF JURA.

Third in the Norfolk was ARIZONA BLAZE who is by Whitsbury’s SERGEI PROKOFIEV. He has the Canada suffix having been born in the land of the maple leaf. He himself was a $1.1million yearling at Keeneland, purchased by Coolmore. He is by the American sire SCAT DADDY and out of a TAPIT mare. Tapit stands for $185,000 at Gainesway and he is by PULPIT so ‘SERGEI’ is bred on a similar cross to JUSTIFY, the sire of Derby winner City Of Troy. We’re backing one of his today at Salisbury!

We could discuss SCAT DADDY’S prowess of siring top class turf horses at Royal Ascot for a while. American bred LADY AURELIA was the Ascot sweetheart in 2016 and 2017, winning the Queen Mary and coming back to win the Kings Stand. SIOUX NATION, for Coolmore, is out of an Oasis Dream mare. Oasis Dream, like INVINCIBLE SPIRIT, is by the phenomenal American sire GREEN DESERT. The influence of the USA suffix is littered all over OASIS DREAM’s pedigree. SCAT DADDY’s other son at stud CARAVAGGIO who is the sire of PORTA FORTUNA, the Coronation Stakes winner. CARAVAGGIO is out of an American mare who in turn is by an American Dirt sire in HOLY BULL.

Duke Of Cambridge winner RUNNING LION is by ROARING LION, himself a $160,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland. His sire is American, his dam is American and her sire is American.

Lastly, GABALDON was for all love and money going to win the Windsor Castle before being denied by AIN’T NOBODY. GABALDON’s pedigree is all dirt influenced. He was a $9000 yearling at OBS in October, the same sale that produced last years Queen Mary winner CRIMSON ADVOCATE, who, you guessed it, is American bred.

To conclude, the bridge between dirt and turf is all made up nonsense!

RISK ON

14.45 SERGIO PARISSE

Head and shoulders above the field for this big prize. Whitsbury Manor who stand this lads sire SERGEI PROKOFIEV are hosting their summer party there tonight… it just makes sense. 11/8 is the price he should be, and the price we’re happy to take.

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