Equinties - the machine II

Gm Equinauts

You know the weather is cold when the all-weather tracks are cancelled.

Regarding tomorrow, Ffos Las seem fairly confident their meeting tomorrow goes ahead so if they are the only jumps meeting that goes head tomorrow we will preview the whole damn card like it’s the first day of Cheltenham.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

THE MACHINE II

The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle is a very open race this year. In recent years the Aintree Mares’ Bumper winner tends to have some sway on the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle but unlike last year with DYSART ENOS, the Aintree Mares’ Bumper winner DIVA LUNA hasn’t been totally flawless in her hurdling season, and despite getting her recent job done nicely and gaining that all important experience at Cheltenham, you’d think she will need to up her game if he is to win in March (which she is entitled to do!).

So, where does that leave the race? Well, when looking at the ante-post market, it’s hard not to be drawn in by the brilliantly named MAUGHREEN. 

We haven’t seen her yet over hurdles, and despite just running once so far in her life, she is the 5/1 favourite for the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. Ante-post betting really proves no value at the moment - more on this later!

That said, the race looks fairly weak at this stage away from DIVA LUNA. Maybe ANNO POWER could improve on her Sandown win, and KAROLINE BANBOU was highly-touted coming from France to Mullins, but if MAUGHREEN bolts up on hurdles debut, she’ll be closer to 6/4 than 5/1.

So, when might she start her campaign? Well, we have news. James Fenton, manager of the Closutton Racing Club, said: "She's been doing everything right but the ground has held us up all along. She's a very big mare and we don't need to take a chance.

"We decided we'd wait until after Christmas, so it's now whenever Willie wants to pull the trigger. I'd expect her to be entered and to run before the end of the month, but it'll be up to Willie which race.

"Paul Townend has done a lot of schooling on her and she jumps very well. When we break in horses at home, we do a lot of loose schooling and she was always a very natural jumper. She pricks her ears a couple of strides before a hurdle and takes it on and gets down nice and low.

"The aim is to turn up at Cheltenham for the Mares' Novices' and we still have plenty of time. We don't want to rush her and we want to mind her, especially a mare of that calibre."

Bullish and is actually one ante-post selection at this stage we might consider.

Speaking of short ante-post horses who haven’t yet raced, Sevenbarrows’ French import LULAMBA is the ante-post favourite for the Triumph Hurdle! You heard that right, a horse who is yet to step hoof on a British racetrack is a strong favourite for the Triumph Hurdle…and his familiar yellow and black silks probably have something to do with this price.

If you think we are saying Racing X are making comparisons between him and SIR GINO, then you’d be damn right. Why? Well…

Look, let’s start with the horse. He was good in France but he would need to sharpen up the jumping (it was his first state so that’s fine). His pedigree is a big question mark though! He’s out of EJLAND who won two of her four starts, so that’s promising, but his sire NIRVAN DU BERLAIS is yet to produce a winner over here! Form wise, he pulled well clear at Auteuil, which is promising so let’s go to what Nicky Henderson has said about him.

“He did that nicely, but you’ve no idea what it was and what was in there. He’s just a fine, big horse. If he was in England, I suspect he’d probably still be in the field, but they tend to get on with them in France.

“Sir Gino was always very freaky, he was very speedy from the word go. They’re pretty different.”

The buzz around SIRO GINO last year was immense, and his debut win at Kempton was very good (his jumping needed work, but his engine was there). LULAMBA on the other hand is a horse that Henderson hasn’t had for too long and his immediate comments suggest that he needs more time to grow up? Add to that the potential need to acclimatise having emigrated, there’s two reasons which would put us of a bet.

It's not like the Triumph is a total walk over either. Paul Nicholls’ SAUVIGNON is in the line up,  another French import who has only had a leg stretch behind REGENT’S STROLL on Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup gallops morning and of the others in the line up such as EAST INDIA DOCK and HELLO NEIGHBOUR have already proven themselves on British and Irish soil.

Win or lose, the current market pricing only demonstrates what a horrible place the ante-post playground is right now where the kids of Racing X will always continue play in the hope people are watching and their audience grows, even if they do fall flat on their face in March and go home with scraped knee’s and burnt fingers.

INTENSE ROAD TO AINTREE

It’s always fun to speculate about the Grand National. We’ve done a fair bit of it so far this jumps season, mostly with the likes of IROKO, TRELAWNE, INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, and KING TURGEON.

Well, let’s add another into the mix. INTENSE RAFFLES, the Irish Grand National winner.

He won three races last year, and his form has come together nicely. WHERE IT ALL BEGAN finished second to him in a Fairyhouse novice chase before winning the Grand National Trial and MINELLA COCOONER was third to him in the Irish Grand National before winning the Bet365 Gold Cup.

He has a revised rating of 151 after last year, and while that is a big hike, it’s doable for the Grand National in April. That’s certainly the thinking trainer Thomas Gibney, and he is keeping his improving seven-year-old to hurdles to not ruin his chase mark. After one run over hurdles at Navan in December, he is set to have another run over the smaller obstacles and then a spin over fences.

Gibney said: “He’s getting on good, we’ll make an entry for him at Navan on January 18, it’ll just be your usual 0-140 handicap hurdle. Hopefully the road is still leading to Aintree, it’s a long road, but we’re still on it at the minute anyway.

“The plan would definitely be to go back over fences once the weights come out, more than likely it would be the Bobbyjo or something like that.”

At this stage, a mark of 151 looks nice. The likes of TRELAWNE and IROKO have marks of 152 and they’ve shown their hand nicely. INTENSE RAFFLES is a proven stayer who has not yet achieved his ceiling. He’s certainly interesting for the big day.

RISK ON

We were the laughing stock of Racing X yesterday as Hannon’s LEFT OVER LOVE got best at 1/6. Still no words!

Today we like:

16.45 BRAGBOR

We’re taking on the odds on Varian horse here. Admittedly, Varian’s could be anything - he’s well bred and the yard won this race three years ago with a horse we backed on his debut, TYRRHENIAN SEA. The money for Varian’s is massively telling but his debut time was quite slow and although he is entitled to come on for that (hence the could be anything comment), we do feel his price created a bit of value in the market of a weak enough race. BRAGBOR 9/4 was an expensive breeze up and is currently held in high regard for the homework he’s doing.