Equinties - Opera night

Gm Equinauts

Today marks two weeks until our first Cheltenham bet, MAUGHREEN, runs. We haven’t backed her as a single yet, we’re simply adding her to doubles now with small stakes. It’s not that we think she’s a good price now, she might be the same day on the day (we suspect she won’t be when the heavies weigh in) but it’s just so we have her levered thus reducing liability. We think that’s a smart play.

We have not suggested any other Cheltenham bets yet - we like to bet on the day when we know who is lining up and how the conditions are. Ante-post betting is hard and the likes of SIR GINO and KAWABOOMGA have already put a lot of ante-post punters in the red before the Festival has even begun.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

CARO-LING THEM UP

Professor Caroline Tisdall has had some proper horses over the years. VIEUX LION ROUGE, ADAGIO, DELL’ ARCA et al. and this season has been a revelation for her.

JET BLUE won a Graded contest at Cheltenham, WINDBENEATHMYWINGS and GAMEOFINCHES give her a strong Champion Bumper team, FINAL DEMAND is favourite for the Turners, and ICEO MADRIK could tackle the Cross Country. That is a strong team, and it’s interesting to see that many of her chances are trained outside of the UK, a place she has had the majority of her horses throughout her career as an owner.

We know plenty about FINAL DEMAND, and we know that he is going to the Turners, but it’s interesting to see that Tisdall basically confirmed that JET BLUE, trained by David Cottin, would be heading over to the Albert Bartlett.

This idea was floated up immediately after he won the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices’ hurdle in December, but with a lack of news and runs since, plus the fact he’s trained in France, there was no certainty he would make the trip over.

However, it looks like he is, which means Tisdall will have two nice darts in two Grade 1 novice hurdles. She said: "Jet Blue is a lovely horse in the Albert Bartlett and Final Demand is in the Turners and he's a fantastic horse – he's another one who's been brought on very well by Willie. He takes great care, especially with the large ones who he says can easily be overworked."

JET BLUE is fascinating. He won like a good horse in December and James Reveley was waxing lyrical about him post-race. YELLOW CAR, the third that day, went on to win the River Don as well, and JET BLUE gave five pounds away that day as well.

The way he quickened up around the bend was very eye-catching, especially on ground that he was certainly not used to. Most of his racing in France came on heavy, but he relished the good to soft conditions in December. In what is an open Albert Bartlett this year, especially because Gordon Elliott confirmed THE YELLOW CLAY would head to the Turners, he is a real player.

Tisdall, across a number of trainers, could have five live chances at this year’s Festival. For an owner who isn’t JP McManus, Rich Ricci, or Michael O’Leary, that is pretty insane.

Furthermore, and in what came as a bit of a surprise on Tuesday, the English handicapper had to tell connections to run ICEO MADRIK in a conventional French chase race prior to the weights being announced for the Cross Country. This is because the handicapper couldn’t work out what rating he should be based on his performances in French cross-country races, so his fifth in the Grade 3 Prix Robert de Clermont-Tonnerre gave the handicapper some help towards his 130 rating. The great game!

COOL KAYLAN

The Champion Bumper is a great puzzle to work out this year with the market chopping and changing every time an entrant runs.

Last year was a tough one. The build-up to the race didn’t inspire confidence, and it was almost a case of opening up the racecard on the Wednesday of the Festival and asking yourself which Mullins horse were you going to have a guess on, or reduce the options further by picking which brother you favoured more.

In fairness, this year’s division doesn’t have one screaming at the head of affairs, but what it may lack in star quality, it makes up for in wildness.

First, we had WINDBENEATHMYWINGS shoot into favouritism after winning at Ascot. Now the form of the race might be questionable but that’s almost irrelevant if you just use your eyes. Honestly, we can’t stop thinking about that performance - we’ve not seen anything like it for a long time - and we’re praying he’s the real deal. Every sport wants superstars.

COPACABANA’s recent performance (and the subsequent comments from one Ruby Walsh) soon knocked the Pipe horse off favourtism only for GAMEOFINCHES to then steal the market leader position at the 11th hour after his Punchestown win!

The bumper market is like the stock market during earnings season.

All of the market leaders, including a few of Gordon Elliott’s interesting ones, obviously have top chances, but with WINDBENEATHMYWINGS the only shortie repping the British, do we any other big-priced runners we should keep an eye on?

Last week, we reported that Dan Skelton fancied both of his - FORTUNE DE MER and KEOPS DES BORDES - and if you fancy the latter then you have to like Paul Nicholls’ NO DRAMA THIS END who beat him at Warwick.

Don’t forget Fergal has our last time out winner in KAYLAN too. He’s going slightly under the radar because of the low rpr and the fact his last run was back in October with no reappearance since, but that run was a winning one and the horse he beat, DEEP PURPLE, won his next bumper before finishing third to WENDIGO on his hurdles debut. That’s franked form.

He recently went for a racecourse gallop at Warwick where he made THIRD TIME LUCKI look like a very average horse (maybe he just is?) and confirmation came through yesterday that the Champion Bumper is the plan.

Andrew Megson, the owner, said: "The other one we're really excited about is Kaylan in the Champion Bumper. He won at Warwick in October with a real turn of foot.

"He's been working incredibly well and we were going to give him another run but Fergal decided to wait and go straight there. He had a racecourse gallop the other day we were really pleased with. Assuming he gets in, we're very excited about him."

Now look, there are question marks. The lay-off is one, and the suggestion that O’Brien arguably readies his horses so much that they boil over at the Festival is another, and we ultimately don’t know a lot about him another. However, there were some exciting rumours about this horse last year when he was unraced but stabled with Ben Pauling, and his two public visits to racecourses so far this season (his win and his gallop) would inspire confidence.

The Champion Bumper is no forgone conclusion, and Pipe’s means the Brits arguably have their best chance in recent memory of winning it.

At this point in time, we like WINDBENEATHMYWINGS for his performance only. he wouldn’t be the pedigree vote, which is what we almost always sign our reputation to but his win was simply breath-taking and even if we don’t bet him on the day, we really want him prove a star for the British ranks.

Please don’t f*ck him up, David!

EVEN MORE NOTABLE

Up until last year, no horse had won the 2000 Guineas on their first start on the turf. NOTABLE SPEECH emphatically broke that record last year at long odds, and it was no fluke. He went on to win a Sussex, and he was a very good horse last season.

In this game, it’s easy to liken horses to previous successful animals through a few similar traits. Trainer? Owner? Racing style? Campaign? So, naturally, OPERA BALLO was compared to NOTABLE SPEECH last night after he won impressively under William Buick in the Godolphin silks.

Not only has he only run on the all-weather, like NOTABLE SPEECH at the same stage of his career, last night’s success came in the same race that the eventual Guineas winner won on his second-ever start. So, the similarities are there.

But, can their abilities be compared? NOTABLE SPEECH achieved an RPR of 101 last year, and one can imagine OPERA BALLO will get roughly that as well. But, their performances were much different. NOTABLE SPEECH let his opponents do the talking. He sat off the pace, had little room in the business end of the race, travelled powerfully, found a gap and punched his way through to win - it was very nice on the eye.

OPERA BALLO’s performance last night was very different. He sat prominently, kicked early and obliterated the field early to leave them as if stood standing down the straight.

He’s clearly nice, no, a rocket, but he’s clearly a different animal NOTABLE SPEECH with his own way of doing things. This might mean he could be even better than his his two-time Grade 1 winner and Breeders’ Cup third predecessor. Why? Because NOTABLE SPEECH’s running style (the need to be held up) meant he was beat by tactics at Royal Ascot, he simply was never in the race.

This wouldn’t happen to the running style we’ve seen OPERA BALLO produce so far. We like a simple horse who can just ping out in front and let’s their raw ability to the talking.

He’s got a long way to go to be a star but OPERA BALLO has been perfectly flawless so far and we can see why punters are jumping in his short double digit odds of the Guineas before the season has even begun.

At his stage, who else is on our Guineas radar, we hear you ask!

Well, we always like to see a bit of 2yo Group form and one that stands out is SCORTHY CHAMP for Joseph O’Brien. He ended his season last year by winning his trainers Grandad’s race, the Vincent O’Brien Group 1 National Stakes.

We think the THE LION IN WINTER will rip through the season. He was last seen winning a Group 2 before pulling out if his intended in the Dewhurst.

HAZDANN and GREEN IMPACT look interesting too and should train on.

We can’t wait for the flat season.

RISK ON

15.45 GAYE LEGACY

Was fancied when due to run last time but her meeting was abandoned (shock). She’ll love the ground and has the form to beat. 15/8 is the right price.

17.23 WISE GUY

We had this lad shortlisted last night and he’s subsequently been pressed in the market. This selection is very speccy as he’s coming back from a wind op and several very poor runs but he does hold a pedigree edge as lots in the race need better ground. The main dangers are HAWK STONE and PORT OF STARBOARD. HAWK STONE’s yard are in better form so he is the hedge at 6’s. Split a full stake paying playing the 2’s and 6’s.

BUMPER BET FOR WEEKEND SUBSCRIBERS BELOW.

NOTE: TO ACCESS OUR CHELTENHAM GUIDE CONTAINING FULL PEDIGREE AND FORM ANALYSIS AND VERDICTS FOR EVERY SINGLE RACE, SUBSCRIBE BELOW… FOR JUST £1!

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!