Equinties - Old Hennessy Friday

Gm Equinauts

You know what today is.

Our favourite meeting at our most profitable punting ground, our home track Newbury.

The Old Hennessy (as we still call it) is the true build up to Christmas.

LETS GO NEWBURY AND LETS DIVE IN.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NICHOLLS AT NEWBURY

Today could be a day for Paul Nicholls.

He has eight runners at Newbury, with three youngsters very much under the microscope for their future ambitions.

We talk more about CAPTAIN TEAGUE in our John Francome preview, so let’s dig into the unbeaten REGENT’S STROLL and potential star KALIF DU BERLAIS.

REGENT’S STROLL has been a big talking horse, not necessarily from the regular Racing X suspects, but more from the yard itself!

In the summer, Harry Cobden said: “We'd have been sorry to let him go at the sales, I can assure you of that!

"He was probably the most exciting bumper horse we had last season and he doesn’t look like your average bumper horse. He’s 16.3 hands and he jumps well as I have already schooled him. He could be anything."

He also said in March that “he’s a horse with lots and lots of talent”, and he’s not the only one from Ditcheat who has been singing his praises.

We know PFN likes to big up his horses, but he gave some strong quotes in the summer.

He said: “Obviously we’ve always liked him; gorgeous horse, great sire, great family, great damline. He was never flashy at home, he’s more of a galloper, so you never know with those horses. Hopefully he’ll run in a Gold Cup one day.”

His granddam, POLLY PUTTENS, produced DENMAN and SILVERBURN, two horses Nicholls trained, so he knows the pedigree well and REGENT’S STROLL has won around Newbury before.

If you like Pauls comments about REGENT STROLL, then you’re going to love his comments about KALIF DU BERLAIS.

Nicholls has not hidden the fact that he has high hopes for this one and got the fact he bought this horse with the Gold Cup in mind early doors - that’s some pressure.

Sent off odds on for his seasonal and chase debut, he was jumping like a stag and looked brilliant until his nasty fall. In all honesty, we really didn’t think we’d see him out this early but we’re hopefully this is a sign that he is none the worse for it.

That race fitness will be key, and he gets 8lbs from his elders due to the four-year-old allowance over fences but is facing a big, more experienced field. We imagine Paul and Harry will just want to see their potential star back on track with a good round of jumping and complete the course to get his confidence back - horses remember falls.

The question we can hear you ask is - are you backing him today?

In short, no. We LOVE stars, we want champions and so of course we’ll be cheering him on and perhaps even chuck him in a small stakes perm, but lumping on at even money after he fell last time out? No chance, we think there are easier bets at better prices.

He could genuinely make up into an Arkle contender, or at least a horse to run in something like the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree. Today would be nice to see him get back on track and for Paul to start getting excited over his future.

NEWBURY

13.55 GRADE 2 JOHN FRANCOME NOVICES’ CHASE

This year’s John Francome is no walkover, excuse the pun. It’s a proper race with some nice angles.

CAPTAIN TEAGUE heads the market and he’s the Grade 1 winner in the line-up.

He beat main market rivals THE JUKEBOX MAN, JOHNNYWHO, and MASACCIO but then got royally pumped by THE JUKEBOX MAN at Cheltenham in atrocious conditions.

His pedigree suggests he’ll much prefer todays better ground versus the slop he faced in the Albert Bartlett but it is his first run of the season. That said, he has been for a racecourse gallop with CALDWELL POTTER and Paul says he’s ready to go.

THE JUKEBOX MAN put in two huge runs on his final starts of last season, notably when nearly winning the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

His final start saw him finish behind DANCING CITY who could be a nice one for the Brown Advisory this year. However, finishing ahead of CHERIE D’AM and SHANAGH BOB isn’t amazing form. 2m4f is a question mark as well.

JOHNNYWHO and MASACCIO are race-fit horses here, but let’s start with the former who is now 2/1 fave.

JOHNNYWHO won nicely when beating BUGISE SEAGULL at Carlisle, but his form petered out towards the back end of last season.

His race fitness will really help and he was staying on behind CAPTAIN TEAGUE in the Challow.

MASACCIO also won on his seasonal reappearance when winning over course and distance off 131 in a handicap chase.

He has yet to prove how good he is in Graded company as his onnly attempt to date saw him beaten by nearly 10 lengths in the Challow but he is fit and has a strong will to win.

BUGISE SEAGULL has BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD form which should be really noted as she has gone on to beat STATE MAN in the Morgiana.

He was beaten by HANDSTANDS in a Listed race prior to Aintree which is questionable form. However, he’s pretty unexposed.

Finally, BOOMBAWN brings his own form to the table here. He’s raced through the summer and got some Graded form under the belt when winning the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase. That win means he has to give weight away which will not be easy.

Verdict: CAPTAIN TEAGUE was best hurdler of this lot which is key given chasing was the plan and more, he’s a beautiful looking horse. He’s the vote.

15.05 GRADE 2 LONG DISTANCE HURDLE

Four runners. One Grade 1 winner, one ‘summer horse’, one Nicholls horse and one rated 132. It’s a pretty poor race to say the least.

But still, let’s preview it.

STRONG LEADER has a bit going for him. He finished the season with a Grade 1 win at Aintree, ahead of BUDDY ONE, MONKFISH, FLOORING PORTER, and HEWICK.

That race kind of fell a part, but he stays the trip and is still unexposed. He is a rightful favourite for this but there is a big argument to suggest LANGER DAN’s form trumps that of the fave’s.

He chased home IMPAIRE ET PASSE and BOB OLINGER in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle before finishing ahead of SIR GERHARD and BLUEKING D’OROUX in the Grade 2 Select Hurdle. Furthermore, he beat the subsequent Ascot Hurdle winner LUCKY PLACE in the Coral Cup and when he has been trying, he’s finished behind the likes of GALOPIN DES CHAMPS.

But you’d be brave to back him given Dan’s recent comments…

He said: "I think it's going to be hard to beat Olly's horse first time out but we've got to start somewhere. I've always said he's a better horse in the spring but it'll be interesting to see how he handles the trip."

Has the handicapping started before the race!? It sounds like it.

On the third fave, MONMIRAL, Paul Nicholls thinks that he “could sneak this”, and he’s probably right because he has race fitness.

He was a Grade 2 novice chase runner-up behind THE REAL WHACKER and he won a Grade 1 juvenile hurdle in 2021, so he does have class.

Might Nicholls be working back from the Pertemps already? He could well be.

FLIGHT DECK completes the field and he was third in this race last year but he’s rated 132 and hasn’t shown much form to date. It’s hard to fancy him here.

Verdict: This race really should be won by STRONG LEADER who can be really class on his day over the three miles but carrying a penalty first time out will be tough. The value bettors, if you’re that way inclined, will be playing MONMIRAL on the basis STRONG LEADER might need the run (he has a long season ahead of him) and LANGER DAN might be getting handicapped over this extended trip. MONMIRAL will be cherry ripe for this having already had a blow and that might see him ‘sneak’ it as Paul suggests. We’re still to decide if this is a betting race and answer the question - can a race fit MONMIRAL beat a horse we love in a fat (should he need the run) STRONG LEADER? We’ll take a look at them in the paddock.

RISK ON

We will be punting live from Newbury today and will post out bets live on X @equinties

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