Equinties - Bailey's big boy

Gm Equinauts

Tiz the season for Christmas gambles and we saw a couple of mega-gambles unfold at Kempton last night.

In the first BAIKAL was smashed from big odds into about 11/4 half hour before the race but then, just before the off, that 11/4 got squeezed into 6/4. It cannot be overstated how big a market move that is.

But the gamble failed. Luke Morris couldn’t even get a placed effort out of his mount and that would have seriously burnt some fingers two weeks before Christmas. A very poor effort from the horse who had such confidence behind him. Clearly not the right horse for the job.

The punters behind JOLLY ROGER in the 18.10 knew they had the right horse though. This horse was smashed up very late with big money to move the a shortie Godolphin horse off fave spot and he did the job easily under Oisin Murphy.

A very good gamble landed - the horse had a run, the others either didn’t or were poor, best jockey steering and the Crisford yard are flying. It all made sense post -race!

That’s a Christmas gamble.

We have one of our won coming next week - stay tuned!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BAILEY’S BIG BOY

There is something a little bit important about tomorrow’s 3m2f handicap chase at Cheltenham.

No, it’s not the fact it’s sponsored by the new Sonic The Hedgehog 3 movie.

It’s the top weight CHIANTI CLASSICO.

He is set to contest this handicap off 157, giving 24lbs to his closest market rival KING TURGEON. No one can say with certainty if he is… a certainty! He’s the favourite, but not even his trainer knows what will happen.

Carrying 157 around in a handicap is tough, but win or lose, it does give Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls a bigger idea of what his end-of-season aim will be. Bailey said: “There's no doubt about it, if he does win then we'll have to look at something better. It'll probably settle our season as it'll tell us which way to go.He could still run in the Grand National as it's such a different race to what it was and you can get those Gold Cup horses in there. We'll get past Friday and see where we are.

"He has another 8lb or 9lb to go before he becomes a Grade 1 horse. If he gets beat [at Cheltenham] the Grand National will be his number one target, if he wins we can start thinking of other days. You've got the Denman Chase and the Cotswold Chase, so it's a big day for him on Friday."

He’s been a very impressive horse for connections. What he did at Ascot lto on his seasonal reappearance off 152 should be commended, especially considering the front three pulled well-clear. So, if he wins, he’s a Cheltenham Gold Cup horse. Who would have thought this when he won his first handicap chase off 133?! And, to be honest, he would be one of Britain’s leading contenders if he were to win on Friday.

GREY DAWNING and L’HOMME PRESSE are, currently, the highest hopes Britain has of winning the Gold Cup. Admittedly, these hopes are not very promising in the grand scheme of things, and CHIANTI CLASSICO was beaten by INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN at Aintree. Friday is certainly interesting. We’ll learn plenty. Ultimately, with a better bit of campaigning, this horse would be a nailed-on Grand National winner, but Bailey is playing his cards pretty straight. If he didn’t win at Ascot and played it nice and chill, this horse would have ended up in Aintree off a low 150 rating and won. That’s probably an area where the Irish do it much better than us Brits. Oh well.

MORE CHALLOW FIREPOWER

The Challow could be a proper race this year, and it could well have major effects on the Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle markets.

IT’S HARD TO KNOW has plenty to prove in regard to Cheltenham, but the Challow has been highlighted by Ben Pauling as his next target.

He’s floating a bit under the surface in the grand scheme of novice hurdlers in the UK, but he is unbeaten across his one PtP race and two rules races. His form has also started to work out. METKAYINA, who beat DIVA LUNA the other day, was behind him at Lingfield on his hurdles debut in November, so that is something to like.

But Grade 1 company, especially in a race that could be very good, he will have to step up. Either way, Pauling is hopeful, as he said: “He’s a very nice individual who has only done what he has had to in his two wins. He’s not flashy and you never know where the ceiling might be with him.

“This is the obvious race to go for and it will tell us where we’re heading for the rest of the season. The trip and potentially soft ground at Newbury will be ideal for him. He’ll stay three miles in time but has a bit of class and speed too.”

Also, he’s actually bang within his rights to do this. The BHA handicapper has given him an opening mark of 124. Say he gets stuffed in the Challow, that mark won’t change, and he can then go and be very competitive in a handicap. Say he runs well and the handicapper pushed up his mark a little, maybe to 130, again the handicap route can be exploited, but we then all know how good he could be when dropping out of graded company and into handicaps. Roll on the Challow! Should be a cracker.

SOLID AS ROCK

MARIE’S ROCK, PINK IN THE PARK, MUSIC OF TARA, CHOICE OF WORDS, and LIBERTY DANCE. All of the horses named above have been lovely mares that have provided great memories over the years. Well, they were all sold at yesterday’s Goffs December NH Sale. The Racing Post actually tweeted that BRANDY LOVE had sold at the sale as well, but it seems that she was bought back by the vendor.

MARIE’S ROCK did tail off a bit towards the end of her career, but that’s standard for a nine-year-old mare. It’s hard not to be seriously impressed by her career, all of which started slightly out of the blue in the 2022 Mares’ Hurdle. She won the Grade 1 at Cheltenham at 18/1 before going on to back this up at Punchestown at 10/1. She also won the Relkeel Hurdle off a 246-day break at 11/2. How underappreciated was she?!

From now, she has broodmare duties to serve having been bought for €155,000 by Coolmara Stables, and the same goes for PINK IN THE PARK who was bought for €120,000 by Powerstown. Interestingly, she should have some extra broodmare value as she shares a third dam with the Grade 1 winner FERNY HOLLOW who recently passed away.

RISK ON

14.05 SHY LOVE

We think the trip and ground could be the key to this horse and have him prove well handicapped. 7/1 ew a good bet

Any more we like we will post to X @equinties

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