Equinties - Equinox sale

Gm Equinauts

Yesterdays rain over Nottingham came at an annoying time - right before race time when the bets were already locked in and this newsletter sent.

We’ve always said the ground is the single most important factor in betting and with all the rain due, going’s can change quickly and then all bet slips are in the bin.

Given it’s been firm ground the whole year, yesterdays going change we a nice reminder to be extra careful to check the forecasts and hold off on bets until race time. Checking out X account @equinties will be important in the coming months.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

SPECULATION SQUASHED

At midday yesterday, there was a small bit of intrigue surrounding the Irish Oaks, which came as a surprise.

For the longest time, and by that we mean roughly one month, everyone in racing has had the same general idea about the Irish Oaks, and it was a pretty boring one - MINNIE HAUK wins. End of.

With an ante-post price of 1/2, it was easy to just look at the Curragh’s feature Group 1 on Saturday and label it as a snooze-fest, but when confirmations came in yesterday afternoon, there was a glimmer of hope that the race wouldn’t be as boring as an EastEnders omnibus.

That’s because both WHIRL, runner-up to MINNIE HAUK in the Epsom Oaks, and BEDTIME STORY were confirmed as part of the nine-strong Irish Oaks field.
Aidan O’Brien confirmed six runners, Joseph O’Brien put forward WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY, Johnny Murtagh nominated SUBSONIC, and Fozzy Stack included BAY COLONY.

MINNIE HAUK vs WHIRL would genuinely be a fascinating rematch. Just a neck separated them last month, and some people thought Wayne Lordan gave WHIRL an ‘easy ride’ in the finish.

Furthermore, WHIRL has won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes subsequently when beating KALPANA, last year’s Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes winner.

So, at midday yesterday, things started to look rosy.

However, that was not the case in the evening, as O’Brien poured ice cold water on the idea of a rematch.

He said: "The Irish Oaks has been the plan for Minnie Hauk and so far everything has gone well. Whirl probably won't run. She's in good form and could go to the Nassau. Bedtime Story probably won't run, but she's also in good shape and could go to the Nassau as well.

"If everything is okay with Minnie Hauk then Whirl and Bedtime Story probably won't run – that's the way we're thinking. Butterfly Wings, Island Hopping and Merrily are all possible runners."

Ah.

You can’t blame O’Brien here. WHIRL is a 5/2-shot for the Nassau Stakes, and she would be a proper contender getting weight from the likes of SEE THE FIRE, CINDERELLA’S DREAM, and ESTRANGE.

The Irish Oaks just isn’t a great race anymore. The last three renewals, except possibly 2023, have been relatively poor, and while SNOWFALL did win in 2021, she was 2/7.
MINNIE HAUK is now 1/3, and she could go off shorter. Wake us up when this is all over.

IRON HORSES

Why did everyone love GIANT’S CAUSEWAY? Quite simply, he was the ultimate iron horse.

Just in case you may have forgotten his busy year in 2000, let’s give you a quick reminder. He completed 10 races, winning five Group 1s (St James’s Palace, Coral-Eclipse, Sussex Stakes, Juddmonte International, and Irish Champion Stakes), and picking up runners-up medals in the English Guineas, Irish Guineas, QEII, and Breeders’ Cup Classic.

That is an incredible campaign, and one we have not seen since. Take this season as a very quick example. John Gosden has given FIELD OF GOLD a rest after his St James’s Palace Stakes win because of his ‘busy’ season so far this year.

Yes, objectively, FIELD OF GOLD has had a pretty full calendar since the Craven in April, and his few weeks on the easy list will obviously do him the world of good, but GIANT’S CAUSEWAY ploughed on and took in the Coral-Eclipse as well before his trip to Goodwood.

In 2023, O’Brien tried to do something similar with PADDINGTON, but by the time he rocked up to the Juddmonte International (his seventh run of the season), he found it all a bit too much and finished third of four.

Now, in the year of 2025, Ballydoyle doesn’t have a true iron horse, but Godolphin do with REBEL’S ROMANCE.
He’s a slightly different iron horse as he had seven runs in 2022, six runs in 2023, six runs in 2024, and four runs so far this year. That’s certainly not 10.

The difference is his campaigning. Newmarket, Goodwood, Hoppegarten, Cologne, Keenland, Meydan, Saratoga, Aqueduct, Kempton, Doha, Meydan, Sha Tin, Ascot, Cologne, Del Mar, Riyadh, Meydan, York, and Ascot.

There are, in order, the racecourses that REBEL’S ROMANCE has raced at since the start of 2023. He certainly knows how to travel!

The DUBAWI six-year-old arguably captured a few more hearts at Royal Ascot this year with his gutsy success in the Group 2 Hardwick Stakes, and for him, he is set to have a relatively short trip to his next racecourse later this month.

Charlie Appleby said: “Rebel’s Romance has come out of Royal Ascot well and we’ll go into the King George as a decent player. Needless to say there are some young legs in there but a little bit like last year, he'll always run a solid race for you.

"You’re going to meet some younger horses who have taken different routes to get there but the one thing about him is he's not going to lie down easily and wherever he finishes, whoever beats him will know they've had a race.

"It would be phenomenal if he can win at that level in Britain. He hasn't got one to his name and it would be fantastic for everyone who is involved with him.

"We won’t see many more like him for a few years and I enjoyed taking him to York. It was great the crowd had the opportunity to see him as he's more recognised for his achievements in the US and Hong Kong than here.”
His inclusion in the King George later this month adds a great deal. CALANDAGAN, JAN BRUGHEL, KALPANA, REBEL’S ROMANCE, and ALMILOC make for a proper contest. Roll on.

EQUIN-LOADS OF NAUGHTS

Remember EQUINOX? If you are someone burdened with a poor memory, he was the six-time Group/Grade 1 winner who lit up the racecourse every time he stepped onto it.

He achieved an official rating of 135, he made WESTOVER look extremely average in the 2023 Sheema Classic, and he achieved an RPR of 134 on two separate occasions.

He was breath-taking.

And if you hadn’t caught your breath back from his performances on track, you’d be in serious oxygen deficit watching yesterday’s JRHA Select Sale.

This is because EQUINOX’s first 23 foals went through the from ring, and some of them went for crazy numbers, with the total price of all his foals selling for £17,928,385!

His colt out of MIDNIGHT BISOU, a five-time Grade 1 winner, made nearly £3 million, and another colt, this time out of the two-time Grade 1 winner GOING TO VEGAS, sold for £2.66 million. In the case of the GOING TO VEGAS colt, his daddy has certainly stamped him well. He has a white, bright blaze against his dark bay colour, and he has three white socks compared to EQUINOX’s one.

He really does look like his dad!

Plenty of money has been splashed, and he was a fine beast on the track. Let’s hope some of his offspring have inherited his talent, and not just his striking looks!

STATS OF THE DAY

There are very few good looking stats today, stand outs even less so. Perhaps the only one that takes the eye is Probert’s strike rate at Ffos Las when riding for Hughie Morrison, he’s 5 from 8 all time. They team up with BEGGERMAN in the 20.00.

RISK ON

Ed Dunlop tops our list of most useless trainers but we don’t think even he can get IWANTMYTIMEWITHYOU beat in the 15.50 who looked very well handicapped last time out when beating an SMP trip hike plot. 10/11 might seem short but we think he wins, so we’ve used to lever a couple of future fancies, notably HAVANA HURRICANE in the Super Sprint Saturday (small stakes owed to potential rain changing the going) and ROYAL FIXATION in next months Lowther who we put up Saturday.

Otherwise there are no bets today.

There are several very nice betting opportunities to be declared in the coming days… it’s going to be a big week.