Equinties - Epsom pouring downs

Gm Equinauts

It’s overcast and a little miserable this morning, a meteorological representation of the punting gods’ mood after yesterdays disastrous effort from the Wathnan horse we know is so much better than, but that does mean tomorrow’s going is up in the air for the two big races coming up - the Oaks and the Derby…

We will be a strict weather watch today ahead of the main event and let’s not forget, they have watered!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

DERBY NEWS

We got the draw for Saturday’s Epsom Derby yesterday, so what did we learn?

This will be the first time the Derby has had 19 runners in a long time (none in the last 10 years), so the draw statistics may be slightly skewed due to the sheer number of competitors this year.

The main market rivals, RULING COURT and DELACROIX, are in fine boxes with stall seven and 14 respectively, though PRIDE OF ARRAS has stall 16 to overcome. No horse has ever won the Derby from this gate, as goes for number two, STANHOPE GARDENS.
Aidan O’Brien may be happy with 14 for DELACROIX, and Ryan Moore choosing him is a tip in itself, but it’s fair to say there was no smile on his face when ball number 19 was plucked out of the FA Cup-style bowl for THE LION IN WINTER.

Ah well, at least LAMBOURN, the Chester Vase winner, has stall 10, the statistically best draw for the Derby, so that’s something Ballydoyle and The Lads can be happy about.

So, if you fancy RULING COURT or DELACROIX, you’re grand. If you’re a PRIDE OF ARRAS fan, good luck bucking the trends.

However, away from the draw, should we be looking at something else that could massively impact the weekend’s big race?

Epsom Downs Racecourse is currently ‘good’ after a bit of rain recently, and they are set for an unsettled run-in to the big one.

Rain is expected today, a small drop is expected tomorrow, and a bit more is set to come down on the day of the Derby. Some reports are even saying that heavy showers are expected just five minutes before the Derby!

This could create a few more interesting angles throughout the weekend (slop comms), and it will put an emphasis on stamina in the Derby itself, and maybe even the Oaks if enough rain hits the track.

For the Godolphin pair of DESERT FLOWER and RULING COURT, two horses who are not confirmed stayers at 1m4f, this would be a worry.

On RULING COURT, Appleby said: "We have always felt that the 2,000 Guineas is one of the best trials for the Derby, and Ruling Court has trained well since winning at Newmarket. We wouldn't want the ground to get too soft by Saturday, so any significant amount of rain would be a negative.

"We won't know if he truly gets a mile and a half until we try, but he gives us all the indications that he should get the trip. We know that he is the class horse in the field, which helps, and being able to travel around Epsom is probably more important than being a proper mile-and-a-half horse.

"We can have no complaints with being drawn seven and are very pleased with how his preparation has gone. He is an exciting Derby contender, for sure.”

By JUSTIFY out of the firm ground-placed INCHARGEOFME, proper rain would certainly be a worry for RULING COURT. Backers, beware.

BUYERS RESOLUTE

Resolute Racing. John Stewart’s thoroughbred breeding and racing operation that began in 2023 and has already made a big mark on the sport.

The ownership has three Grade 3 races to its name over in America, and it has a share in George Boughey’s BELIEVING after she was sold at the Tattersalls Mares’ Sale in December. They have also purchased a 75% stake in GOLIATH, last year’s King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner.

Last week, a very simple quote tweet from Stewart on X sparked wild rumours that the operation had bought ROSALLION from Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum, but these were quickly kiboshed by Richard Hannon in the Racing Post.

Genuinely, the now-deleted tweet had well-known pages breaking ‘unofficial’ news that ROSALLION was sold. It was all quite bewildering.

Anyway, Resolute Racing has made a purchase with Royal Ascot in mind, and the horse they now have is Paddy Twomey’s ROGUE LEGEND.

Bought at Book 3 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sales in October for just 55,000gns, the HAVANA GREY colt is two from three so far this season, and he looked quite good at Tipperary recently.

Although the Rogue Gallery Partnership likes to keep hold of their exciting juveniles, the sheer volume of money being offered was too hard to ignore. Speaking to the Nick Luck Daily Podcast, Tony Elliott, the Rogue Gallery founder, said: “All I can say is that he is sold to John Stewart of Resolute Racing, an American owner, for a hell of a lot of money. We can’t disclose the figure but it was more than you can imagine.

“It's a decision that we don't make very easily but, at the end of it all, the decision is down to me. When they offer so much money it is very difficult to turn it down.

“We have another horse called Rogue Supremacy that won on debut, who we have been offered even more for, and we have received a large offer for Rogue Millions.
ROGUE LEGEND is set to be Resolute Racing’s second-ever runner at Ascot, and this could be the start of their invested interest in UK Flat racing.

QUEEN MARY BOUND

Finally, speaking of Royal Ascot, we have a new favourite for the Queen Mary Stakes after ZELAINA bolted up at Nottingham yesterday.

Sporting the Wathnan Racing silks, the Karl Burke-trained daughter of MEHMAS showed herself to be quite the prospect on her debut run. She bucked out, made all, travelled like a bullet train, and won comfortably. To the eye, she does look like a proper tool.

A monstrous performance, she’s by the all conquering, top juvenile sire MEHMAS who incidentally has more 2yo winners (before the start of June) than SCNITZEL achieved as the leading sire of 2yos; in Australia all year!

Anyway, back to this filly, MEHMAS does really well with the DANEHILL line, like KODIAC and FASTNET ROCK, but the other line is exceptional

Of course, due to her blue, red, and gold silks, she will naturally attract a bit more ‘hype’ because Wathnan is the new sexy thing in the world of ownership. Add on the fact that Burke is a well-known trainer for juveniles, and there you go, she’s the 7/2 market leader for the Queen Mary.

She does deserve her plaudits, obviously, but the Queen Mary will be no piece of cake. HARRY’S GIRL is still a big price, LENNILU might come over from America, and SOCIETY KISS looked useful at Ascot for Ralph Beckett.

Speaking to Racing TV, Burke said: "She's very quick and has a lot of ability. She's a little bit hot but her homework has shown us she's very good.

"She missed a good ten days of work but has done the job very well.

"Fitness-wise she will improve and she likes to get on with things. We have got two weeks to go. If she gets there in the form I think we can get her in, I'll be very happy."

Improvement in fitness will be key for Ascot. If Burke can do that in two weeks (short enough turnaround, then there’s reason to be excited.

RISK ON

BOYFRIEND for Hannon did little to soothe the wounds from a bad bet on Wathnan’s yesterday. HIGH APPROVAL was a max within our betting means yesterday which didn’t come off - a big surprise given what we knew about him. It will take a lot of trust to follow him again but we do know he’s very smart, it just didn’t happen on the day.

We thought we’d see an entry for an Eve horse this week we’ve been waiting on. Max bet redemption is waiting. Keep reading this section for him and do not miss it.

Today we like:

14.50 DUTCH FINALE

Forget his last run, every thing went wrong at the start and the race was a non-event. This well bred horse for Boughey is expected to win today and can hopefully make a mockery of his mark!

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