Equinties - poor form

Gm Equinauts

With yesterdays newsletter focused on a review of Cheltenham, we neglected to mention the return of jumps racing at Windsor.

Blasphemy.

For a track with such a unique route round, it looked to ride fair with the long home straight allowing for good finishes and perhaps the best horses to win.

It should prove a nice punting track and a brilliant, brilliant addition to the jumps calendar, one we’ll be trying to go to every meet from now on.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

POOR FORM

Racing X cottoned onto something yesterday. They started to shout that the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle form from March hasn’t worked out very well.

Why? That’s because the winner, SLADE STEEL, was beaten for the second time this season by the Albert Bartlett fifth LECKY WATSON. So, are they onto something? Is the Supreme a fairly underwhelming race?

Well, considering that the runner-up, MYSTICAL POWER, ended up running against the same bunch of horses (SLADE STEEL, FIREFOX, ASIAN MASTER) when winning a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival on his next start, one can only question the strength of the form.

Add to the fact that ASIAN MASTER, the fourth, was ultimately a PtP horse who outperformed everyone’s expectations, and you can really start to see why people are shouting down upon the Supreme.

It gets worse when you compare it alongside the Gallagher (Turners) and Albert Bartlett. First things first, BALLYBURN smashed up SLADE STEEL at the DRF. Nice and easy.

BALLYBURN has won on chase debut since, while ILE ATLANTIQUE (3rd) has also done the same. As for the British horses that ran in the Gallagher, HANDSTANDS has won a Grade 2 and JINGKO BLUE has won on chase debut. So, the race is working out very well.

The same can be said for the Albert Bartlett with STELLAR STORY, THE JUKEBOX MAN, DANCING CITY, LECKY WATSON, and JOHNNYWHO all winning on chase debut, though THE JUKEBOX MAN did that in Grade 2 company which is thoroughly impressive.

The Supreme has taken some hits, and it doesn’t look like it will get any better anytime soon. Follow with caution!

LIGHTNING OVER WINDSOR

Could the Lightning Novices’ Chase be a nice race this year?

Switching up from Lingfield to Windsor is ultimately a great decision, more for the fact it has a much higher chance of actually being on, which helps!

Trainers, like Nicky Henderson, like to support Windsor as well (especially given it’s just down the road from Lambourne), so we could get a good renewal after the turn of the new year.

One horse that is being lined up for the race is L’EAU DU SUD, the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase winner, as it works out nicely ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.

Dan Skelton said: “He’s won a Grade One and I just feel if we went to Windsor, it might give him a longer gap to work up towards the Arkle, because if you ran him in the Warwick race (February 8), you could do a bit of work but not as much as you can do in seven weeks, so I just think tactically it might work better going that way.

“If Windsor is off, we’ve always got the back-up of Warwick or Newbury. It might just look like Windsor now.”

It makes sense, but could he run into a nice one from Seven Barrows? As we said in Saturday’s newsletter, JANGO BAIE was impressive at Cheltenham on Friday. Nicky Henderson was unsure about which trip he would run at this season, and with JINGKO BLUE going to the Scilly Isles, could JANGO BAIE drop back in trip?

If not, the likes of CALDWELL POTTER or KALIF DU BERLAIS could take him on, maybe.

 SPLITTING THE BOWENS

One item we missed from yesterday’s newsletter was the Bowen Brothers’ dead-heat at Cheltenham in the opening juvenile contest.

It was quite a remarkable run up the hill from TERIFERMA to dead-heat with QUANTOCK HILLS, and the end result has certainly given us a pub quiz question for years to come. But, could the race also produce two Fred Winter contenders?

No.

Well, actually it depends how far QUANTOCK HILLS can progress.

TERIFERMA represented the same connections as the winners of last year’s contest, and trainer Jack Jones was quick to compare him with AN BRADAN FEASA. He notably mentioned that he could be better than him and he would jump a fence in time, so he potentially has a bit more to look forward to but we can’t get past his useless pedigree.

As for QUANTOCK HILLS, as we mentioned in Saturdays preview of the race, he was the only one in the line up with a proper NH pedigree. He had a bit more experience under the belt having raced twice in France during the summer before joining Warren Greatrex and the Lambourn trainer is already thinking of the first day of the Cheltenham Festival: "I'd say it'd be more the Boodles than the Triumph, but we'll see. He'll have another race before, which I'm yet to decide on, but he's less exposed than some because he's learning all the time.

"I was looking at the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow [December 27], but I doubt we'll do that now as it's too close to last week. He's won three now, so I'll see how he gets over this and make a plan."

The Irish are likely to have some much bigger ‘hype’ horses heading to this race, but QUANTOCK HILLS could prove nice in time and has already shown his ability around Prestbury Park. That is pretty useful experience, and the British handicapper could be nice to him.

RISK ON

One bet one winner yesterday for this section, today we like:

15.15 MOAB

Knight has a terrible strike rate since re-igniting her training career but her horses are all now going close and we think this lad can lead today and go well, no Sandown hill this time in the way! 10/1 ew.

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